Barack Obama has no chance of winning Nebraska next year. His approval rating in the state is 35% with 61% of voters disapproving of him. The only places where PPP has found him to be more unpopular are Utah, Wyoming, and West Virginia. Part of the problem is his having pretty much no support from Republicans in a Republican heavy state but even with Democrats his approval is a much lower than usual 68%.
Obama trails Mitt Romney by 13 points at 51-38, Ron Paul by 10 at 47-37, Michele Bachmann by 8 at 49-41, and Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry each by 7 points at 48-41. Those margins are all closer than Obama's 15 point loss statewide in 2008 but they don't point to much potential for him to pull a big upset. The strongest Republican in Nebraska actually would have been Chris Christie, who led Obama 51-36 on this poll. Christie did better than any other Republican on the North Carolina poll we released this morning as well but of course that ship has sailed.
That move is having the impact Republicans hoped it would in the 2nd district- Romney leads Obama 50-42 there and Perry has a 48-44 advantage as well. But in a finding that can certainly go into the 'unintended consequences' file Obama is now up 45-44 on Romney in the new 1st District and leads Perry by a 47-41 margin. Now it's important to note that the margin of error for the numbers in each of these individual Congressional districts is pretty high, but still, Obama would be trailing Romney in both the 1st and 2nd districts under the old lines.
Obama may yet have a chance to win an electoral vote in Nebraska. And voters in the state overwhelmingly favor keeping their current quirky system for allocating electoral votes- 51% prefer the status quo to only 31% who favor a shift to winner take all. Republicans (43/35) do narrowly favor making the change but both Democrats (17/66) and independents (22/68) strongly oppose it.
Obama's not going to win Nebraska but even here the numbers show the extent to which he may eventually be bailed out by the weakness of the Republican candidate field. A plurality of voters have a negative opinion of every GOPer we tested- 35/47 for Romney, 30/49 for Bachmann, 31/52 for Gingrich, 26/50 for Paul, and 28/53 for Perry. It's not a good sign if you're a Republican that all your candidates are under water in a deep red state like Nebraska.
Full results here