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October 06, 2011

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Zathras

I thought PPP was not able to poll individual congressional districts?

pbrower2a

It just doesn't -- unless the state is Maine or Nebraska, where Congressional districts count.

NRH

Even in Nebraska, Obama wins the 45-and-under vote against almost all comers (with nonfactor Christie in a clear lead in the 30-45 circuit and Romney in an effective tie with them, and Obama winning every other combination). He wins the non-white vote by landslide margins (though in Nebraska that's not much of a factor). The years to come will not be kind to Republicans, even in states currently as deeply mired in Republican madness as Nebraska.

If you were 16 years old (and just starting to pay attention to politics, if you started fairly early) in 1992, then you're now 35 and have seen two competent Democratic presidents being relentlessly and obsessively attacked by frothing Republicans, and one disaster of a Republican presidency, and have watched the Republicans degenerate into an increasingly insane and monolithic orthodoxy in general. It's no wonder that the next two generations of voters are dedicated Democrats. Give it another two or three electoral cycles and a large proportion of the Republicans' largest demographic base will have, to put it genteelly, left the voting population.

Sophie

Is there any particular reason that your results are somewhat skewed by CD? (That is, 41% of respondents on from the 1st CD, 30% from the 2nd CD, and 29% from the 3rd CD.)

I checked the 2008 results, and found that voters were (roughly) 34.5% in the 1st/2nd and 30% in the 3rd CD, which is rather more uniform. It's not a huge discrepancy, though, and the changing lines likely had something to do with it.

Dustin Ingalls

No, we can poll really anything, but we don't usually poll individual districts unless it's in small states like NE because it's hard to get a suitable sample in each district when there're more than three or four in a state. And usually it's, like here, just a matter of using respondents' congressional districts as a crosstab for questions asked of everyone statewide, not asking different questions in different districts, which is much more complicated to do.

Obama 2012

Well said NRH.

It's clear to any reasonably intelligent informed person that the Republican Party is a disaster for the United States.

RR

Can you clarify whether you asked people what congressional district they lived in -- old and new -- or used separate call lists to call different voters.

Because if the former, it sounds like you're placing an extremely heavy reliance on voters to know what congressional district they live in. That's not always a safe assumption, even for districts that have been around for 10 years; but it's even less safe for new districts that have never actually had a congressional vote yet.

Dustin Ingalls

"Can you clarify whether you asked people what congressional district they lived in -- old and new -- or used separate call lists to call different voters."

Neither. Obviously people don't know the number of the district in which they live. But we didn't call each district separately either. We knew which respondents were in which district, and created a "question" in our stat software based on that, in order to cross the other questions with each district.

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