Last week PPP conducted a survey in Wake County School Board District 3 that found incumbent Kevin Hill leading challenger Heather Losurdo 45-34, a margin almost equivalent to Hill's margin of victory tonight. The survey also asked who respondents would vote for if the race ended up in a runoff between Hill and Losurdo- in that instance Hill led by a 16 point margin at 52-36.
Hill would expand on his victory margin from tonight because the supporters of Jennifer Mansfield and Eric Squires, who combined for a little over 10% of the vote, say they would vote for Hill over Losurdo by a 44-37 margin in a head to head. The Mansfield/Squires voters have an incredibly dim view of Losurdo- just 23% see her positively to 63% with a negative opinion.
The campaign has taken a serious toll on Losurdo's image. Just 36% of voters in the district have a favorable view of her, with 43% seeing her negatively. Hill, on the other hand, is quite popular with 48% of voters approving of him to only 30% who disapprove.
District 3 has a strong Republican registration advantage. Hill was able to win tonight because we found him leading Losurdo by 16 points with independents and taking 20% of the Republican vote while Losurdo was able to win over only 10% of the Democratic vote. In the hypothetical head to head Hill leads 54-34 with independents and picks up 25% of the GOP support while still just losing 12% of Democrats.
Democrats may not have completely finished off taking back the majority on the Wake County School Board tonight. But our numbers indicate they should finish the job four weeks from now.
Note: PPP has done work for Kevin Hill in this campaign, but this particular survey was conducted independently.
Full results here