PPP's monthly look at the Presidential race nationally has two major findings: a wide electability gap between Mitt Romney and anybody else in the Republican field, and Barack Obama doing worse than he was a month ago against all of the GOP contenders.
If Romney was the Republican nominee we'd be looking at a toss up race. He and Obama tie at 45% each. A month ago Obama led Romney 49-45. There are two big reasons Romney does better than any of the other Republicans. One is that he's the only one who leads Obama with independents, even if it's only by a 44-42 margin. The other GOP hopefuls all trail by at least 6 with that group of voters. The other is that Romney has an ability to unify Republicans against Obama that none of his fellow candidates have yet at this point- 85% of GOP voters say they would support him in the general. Cain gets 83% of the Republican vote but none of the rest of them get out of the 70s. A lot of GOP voters may have reservations about Romney that will keep them from supporting him in the primary but when it comes to November they'll be on board with him.
If the Republicans nominate anyone other than Romney it looks like 2008 all over again at this point. Cain is looking like the new Republican front runner, at least in our polling, but he trails Obama 48-42 head to head. Paul faces a 47-39 deficit to the President, Perry is down 49-40, Gingrich trails 50-39, and Bachmann is in the worst position at 50/38. Democrats should pretty much be rooting for anyone other than Romney to win the nomination.
The other notable thing in these numbers is how much Rick Perry's image has tanked in the last month. Only 23% of voters now have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative one. That -34 favorability spread is worse than the -30 we found for Sarah Palin at 32/62 the last time we polled on her nationally, in August. He's at an amazingly bad 16/62 with independents. Obama can only hope that Perry makes some sort of comeback in the next few months- it may be his only path to reelection.
Full results here
I don't agree with this Poll. Many MAY claim that he will unify his party but I see a lot of potential that says other wise. A lot of republicans cant stand Romney, they've stated as such. He might get a lot of moderate republican voters but they are becoming increasingly rare.
Posted by: jeff | October 11, 2011 at 03:24 PM
When will you release the Katy Perry vs. Rick Perry numbers ?
Posted by: Bazinga ! | October 11, 2011 at 03:32 PM
"Obama can only hope that Perry makes some sort of comeback in the next few months- it may be his only path to reelection."
This is an opinion and not a fact. Just because your polls are showing slight negative Obama against the GOP field doesn't mean that the republican is going to become president. You're trying to say that their is a solid lean when it seems that it could really go either way at present.
To be perfectly honest I see a lot of weaknesses in the GOP field that your polls seem to miss for some reason. I'm not sure if the people haven't seen it or if maybe you're just polling the wrong demographic groups. (shrug)
Posted by: jeff | October 11, 2011 at 04:57 PM
...Even in a 50-50 split of the popular vote, the President wins because the huge margins against him are concentrated in relatively few states.
Mitt Romney's best chance is now to pick up New Hampshire (which may be easier than any other state) or one of Colorado and Nevada -- and then he must pick up all of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Every one of those is an effective toss-up, so Romney's chance is one in 16. That is a poor chance. That is little better than the chance that John McCain had two months before the 2008 election.
At this stage Mitt Romney needs to improve the odds by changing the circumstances. This is with the President's nationwide approval rating in the tank. That is also before the Hard Right forces compromises on him that the Obama campaign can assail at will.
Posted by: pbrower2a | October 11, 2011 at 07:35 PM
I'm definitely with the Tea Party on the "Anyone But Romney" train... not that I don't think Obama can beat Romney. I think he can. But it'll be a helluva lot harder than beating a clown like Perry, Gingrich, or Cain.
Unfortunately I think ultimately Romney will win the nomination by default.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | October 12, 2011 at 08:49 AM
I'm voting for Obama if Romney gets the nomination. This is how we got Bush - he was no ones first choice, but he was "electable". I think polls like the above, and more importantly the commentary is exactly why we get awful choices in the general election.
Posted by: Mike Luddy | October 12, 2011 at 11:13 AM