Polls

Gay marriage opposition down in FL, Rubio no draw as VP

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
Opposition to same-sex marriage in Florida has fallen a little in the last three months.  When PPP last polled the state in June, 37% wanted it to be legal and 53% illegal.  That level of opposition is now only 48%.  At the same time, support for legal equality for gay couples is slightly on the rise.  In June, a third favored full marriage rights and another 34% civil unions, for 67% total.  Now, it is 29% and 40%, or 69% altogether.  Only 29% do not favor any recognition of these relationships at all.

New Sen. Marco Rubio’s net approval rating continues to inch in the wrong direction.  In March, his approval-disapproval margin was 43-31, then 42-35 in June, and now 44-39.

And despite his wunderkind treatment by the press, Rubio’s own constituents say his presence on the GOP presidential ticket would not make them any more likely to vote for that ticket.  34% say a Rubio VP nomination would have no impact on their vote, while a 36% plurality actually say they would be turned off by that, and only 30% say Rubio would entice them.  By a 24-37 margin, independents say Rubio as the #2 would actually make them less likely to vote Republican.  Needless to say, Florida is crucial to the GOP’s chances of taking back the White House, but a hometown “hero” may not be of any service.

Despite their lack of home crowds, particularly in Miami, the state’s two Major League Baseball teams are still the most popular with fans.  17% root for each the Tampa Bay Rays and Florida Marlins, with 14% behind the Atlanta Braves from the state to the north.  10% root for the New York Yankees, indicating the influence of the Northeastern transplants.  Four other teams are in single digits, and 24% have no favorite or prefer someone else.

In football, the Miami Dolphins are king, with 21% to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 15%, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 14%, and five teams in single digits.  23% are not football fans.

PPP surveyed 476 Florida voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q2 If Marco Rubio was the Republican candidate
for Vice President next year, would that make
you more or less likely to vote for the
Republican Presidential nominee, or would it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 30%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 36%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 34%

Q3 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 37%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..29%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………40%
There should be no recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q5 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, New
York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, or Tampa
Bay Rays?
Braves …………………………………………………… 14%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 6%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 7%
Marlins …………………………………………………… 17%
Mets………………………………………………………. 2%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 10%
Phillies …………………………………………………… 3%
Rays ……………………………………………………… 17%
Someone else/Not a baseball fan ………………. 24%

Q6 Is your favorite NFL team the Atlanta Falcons,
Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami
Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York
Giants, New York Jets, or Tampa Bay
Buccaneers?
Falcons ………………………………………………….. 3%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 8%
Jaguars………………………………………………….. 14%
Dolphins…………………………………………………. 21%
Patriots ………………………………………………….. 7%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 4%
Jets ……………………………………………………….. 4%
Buccaneers…………………………………………….. 15%
Someone else/Not a football fan………………… 23%

Q7 If there was an election for the US House
today, would you vote for the Democratic or
Republican candidate from your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Tea Party?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 Which system would you prefer for dispensing
Florida’s electoral votes: giving all of them to
the statewide winner or giving one to the
winner of each individual Congressional
District?
Electoral votes should all go to the statewide
winner …………………………………………………….43%
One should be given to the winner of each
Congressional District ……………………………….27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 67%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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