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October 05, 2011


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Matt D

The generic ballot is fascinating. Despite the GOP gaining ground, it is not what you think. Sure, the GOP has gained ground since June, but it's because more Democrats are voting GOP (which is odd, but in Florida that may be typical for some white Democrats), and because more GOPers are voting GOP (which is typical).

And most importantly, Republicans have LOST ground with independents. In June, they had a 35-30 advantage. Now, the Democrats have a 42-30 advantage. The Democrats have gained 7 points, while the Democrats have lost 5.

Obviously, crosstabs can have a high margin of error, but the tightening may have to do more with party bases coming home than any actual substantial climate shift.


Matt D is right on the money, I think. Politics have been steadily becoming more and more polarised throughout the year, and while that annoys many moderates and independents, it does bring the party faithful back into line.


Rubio loses ground every time he makes the news. The minority of Floridians who voted him into office like him; the rest of the state does not. Every time he reminds them of his existence, he excites his forty percent and further turns off the rest. He'll be one-and-done; it's just unfortunate that it'll take so long to correct the mistakes of 2010.

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