Is the new Republican frontrunner Herman Cain? Maybe for this week anyway. PPP polled Republican primary voters in three pretty different states over the weekend- North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia- and found Cain leading the way in each of them as Newt Gingrich surged, Mitt Romney stayed steady, and Rick Perry saw a collapse in his support.
Here are the numbers:
North Carolina: Cain 27, Romney/Gingrich 17, Perry 15, Paul/Bachmann 6, Santorum/Huntsman 2
Nebraska: Cain 30, Gingrich 16, Romney 13, Bachmann/Perry 10, Paul 5, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2
West Virginia: Cain 24, Gingrich 18, Romney 16, Perry 15, Bachmann 8, Paul 6, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
Cain rises to the top
The thing fueling Cain's lead in all of these states is strong support from the furthest right segment of the Republican electorate. Cain is at 35% with 'very conservative' voters and has a 14 point lead over Perry with them in North Carolina. In Nebraska he's at 36% with them, putting him up 22 points over Gingrich and Perry. And in West Virginia he gets 25% with them, giving him a 9 point edge on Gingrich and Perry.
This most conservative group of Republican voters has been shopping for a candidate all year. They've gone from Huckabee to Trump back to Huckabee to Bachmann to Perry and now to Cain. I would expect their support for Cain to be pretty temporary. One thing that's been very clear through all these twists and turns though- they're not going to support Romney.
Whether Cain's surge is fleeting or not this much is true- he's up 18 points compared to a month ago in North Carolina when he was at 9% and he's up 18 points in West Virginia as well where he had previously been at 6%.
Newt surging?
Even more surprising than Cain's leading all three of these polls might be Gingrich's finishing second in each of them...and where his support is coming from. In both Nebraska (21-15 over Cain) and North Carolina (27-18 over Romney) he leads with moderates. Those voters have previously tended to give Romney first place status- it really says something about the state of the Republican field when Newt Gingrich becomes the choice for centrists.
Gingrich has better favorability numbers than front runners Romney and Perry in all three states. In North Carolina he's at +27 (58/31) to +19 for Romney (50/31) and +7 for Perry (44/37). In Nebraska he's at +17 (49/32) to +11 for Romney (45/34) and even for Perry (35/35). And in West Virginia he's at +24 (50/26) to +15 for Romney (42/27) and +13 for Perry (38/25).
This popularity for Gingrich is new found. His net favorability in NC is up 28 points from a month ago when he was actually on negative ground at 42/43. And he's up 19 points in West Virginia from 41/36 in September.
Perry's collapse
We haven't polled Nebraska since January when Perry wasn't really in the picture but we polled both North Carolina and West Virginia last month so it provides a point of easy comparison. Perry's support is down 20 points in North Carolina (from 35% to 15%) and 18 points in West Virginia (from 33% to 15%). He's had similarly catastrophic declines in his favorability numbers. He's dropped a net 37 points in North Carolina from +44 (61/17) to +7 (44/37). And he's declined 30 points in West Virginia from +43 (52/9) to +13 (38/25). Those are some pretty dramatic numbers.
Romney steady
While Cain and Gingrich have seen huge increases in their support and Perry a dramatic decline, Mitt Romney has stayed more or less in place. Last month in North Carolina he was in second place at 12%, now he's tied for second place at 17%. Last month in West Virginia he was in second place at 14%, now he's in third place at 16%. Going all the way back to January when we last polled Nebraska he was in 4th place at 15%, now he's in 3rd place at 13%. Romney's support has been pretty steady all year as folks have risen and fallen around him- the question is just whether that base of support is going to end up being enough to carry him to the nomination.
What about Christie?
We also tested iterations of these polls including Chris Christie- his standing in all three states is solid but not exactly spectacular. In North Carolina he was 2nd at 19%. In Nebraska he was 2nd at 19% as well. And in West Virginia he was 2nd at 17%. Given how desperate Republican voters seem to be for a new face, as evidenced by the constantly shifting poll numbers, I thought Christie would be in first place on these polls. You can argue that he and Cain have received the most 'new' media attention of any of these candidates in the last couple weeks and evidently Cain made a stronger impression on Republican primary voters than Christie. I'm not sure that would have boded particularly well for Christie's prospects further down the line.
Final Thoughts
The Republican race has always been pretty wide open, but never more so than it is now. The fact that Cain and Gingrich, pretty much given up for dead just a few weeks ago, could have this kind of poll surge is really indicative of how weak anyone's support is right now- very few Republican voters are strongly committed to a particular candidate and most of them can shift in a heart beat. I'll be pretty shocked if Cain is still leading our state polls a month from now but if there's any lesson to be learned from the GOP race at this point it's not to be surprised by anything. Two folks these polls are subtly good news for- Perry and Bachmann- because what they show is that just because you decline in the polls doesn't mean you can't come back. You can be the flavor of the week twice.
Full results here
The Republican race continues to get more and more insane. It's just amazing watching these barely functioning lunatics search around in the dark for someone to represent their ridiculous party.
Herman. Cain. Are you kidding me? This guy is clearly not ready for prime time. Amazing!
And now they're already pushing back on him because he had the audacity to say that the n word is insensitive! To these right wing lunatics saying the n word is insensitive is "playing the race card." It's just mind boggling how crazy these people are.
There needs to be a wake up with the MSM. It's time to call a spade a spade. The Republican Party is insane. It's time to leave it in the past where it belongs so our country can move forward.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | October 04, 2011 at 01:09 PM
I think this poll was taken before the "Ni**erhead" controversy, which I bet has hurt Cain with right-wingers.
Posted by: Jbigss1965 | October 04, 2011 at 02:42 PM
Obama Vs Cain...this country will be a laughing stock and I really fear for the economy and the stock market!
Posted by: George | October 04, 2011 at 03:27 PM
some interesting things in the cross tabs -- there is a persistent gender gap in all three states, with women much more likely to support Romney or view him favorably. Funny to see that more men than women view Bachmann favorably, though that's more because, for all candidates, women a\are more likely to say they are unsure about them.
Romney is also viewed much more favorably by the over 65 demographic. Cain's numbers drop sharply with over-65s in all three states, which has some interesting implications. It might mean that they are slower to pick up on the momentum. But, perhaps more plausibly, it might be meaningful to the "racism" question that sprouts up in the comment sections of articles about Cain's viability on Politico and elsewhere.
It'd be nice if the real numbers in each category were included in the cross tabs to have a sense of how significant these differences are.
Great timing with this poll coming out at a moment when the field has become so unsettled. Perry needs to prove that he can talk coherently and in complete sentences soon. Very curious to see what happens to Cain's numbers in S. Carolina
Posted by: Harle | October 04, 2011 at 08:40 PM
Gotta admit, this is a pretty impressive guy. Bachelor’s
degree in Mathematics.
Master’s degree
in Computer Science.
Mathematician
for the Navy, where he worked on missile ballistics (making him a rocket
scientist).
Computer
systems analyst for Coca-Cola.
VP of Corporate
Data Systems and Services for Pillsbury (this is the top of the ladder in the
computer world, being in charge of information systems for a major
corporation).
All achieved before reaching the age of 35. Since he reached the top of the information systems world, he changed careers!
Business Manager. Took charge of Pillsbury’s 400 Burger King restaurants in the Philadelphia area, which were the company’s poorest performers in the country. Spent the first nine months learning the business from the ground up, cooking hamburger and yes, cleaning toilets. After three years he had turned them into the company’s best performers.
Godfather’s Pizza CEO. Was asked by Pillsbury to take charge of their Godfather’s Pizza chain (which was on the verge of bankruptcy). He made it profitable in 14 months.
In 1988 he led a buyout of the Godfather’s Pizza chain from Pillsbury. He was now the owner of a restaurant chain. Again he reached the top of the ladder of another industry.
Cain was also chairman of the National Restaurant Association during this time. This is a group that interacts with government on behalf of the restaurant industry, and it gave him political experience from the non-politician side.
Having reached the top of a second industry, he changed careers again!
Adviser to the Federal Reserve System. Herman Cain went to work for the Federal Reserve Banking System advising them on how monetary policy changes would affect American businesses.
Chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. He worked his way up to the chairmanship of a regional Federal Reserve Bank. This is only one step below the chairmanship of the entire Federal Reserve System (the top banking position in the country). This position allowed him to see how monetary policy is made from the inside, and understand the political forces that impact the monetary system.
After reaching the top of the banking industry, he changed careers for a fourth time!
Writer and public speaker. He then started to write and speak on leadership. His books include Speak as a Leader, CEO of Self, Leadership is Common Sense, and They Think You’re Stupid.
Radio Host. Around 2007—after a remarkable 40 year career—he started hosting a radio show on WSB in Atlanta (the largest talk radio station in the country).
Posted by: Jason | October 04, 2011 at 11:36 PM
"I think this poll was taken before the "Ni**erhead" controversy, which I bet has hurt Cain with right-wingers."
How has it possibly hurt Cain?
"Funny to see that more men than women view Bachmann favorably"
We often found that with Palin.
"It'd be nice if the real numbers in each category were included in the cross tabs to have a sense of how significant these differences are."
What do you mean? The counts rather than just percentages?
Posted by: Dustin Ingalls | October 05, 2011 at 01:14 AM
Silly poll results by Obama Media aimed at getting Obama reelected !!
They gave you McCain in 2008 and now they dropped the MC to give you Cain in 2012 ...............WAKE UP YOU IDIOTS OUT THERE - YOU WANT MORE HOPE & CHANGE IN 2013 ??
DO YOU REALLY THINK THE PIZZA MAN WILL DEFEAT THE COMMUNITY ORGANIZER ?? GMAFB !!
Posted by: ROY SESSION | October 05, 2011 at 05:10 AM
The republicans are going through the process of finding someone to beat Obama; they have Romney & he is a know entity: fairly safe & reliable, but he is boring. Perry, Cain, Christie et. al. all offer something different: excitement. Romney may very well be the nominee, but until that becomes the reality Republicans will take a serious look at each candidate & while they are looking that candidate's numbers will rise.
Posted by: MerlinMedic | October 05, 2011 at 08:36 AM
I'm amazed at the number of liberals that read the columns on this site and then respond in the comments secion. You would think they would be more interested in reading the Daily Kos or some such.
Posted by: Tim Latham | October 05, 2011 at 05:27 PM
The Libbies out there talking trash! What is your Messiah not doing everything you had hoped for? The cult of personality around him is disgusting; it echoes of Chairman Mao, Uncle Adolf, or Stalin. As far as I am concerned ANYONE is better than Obama. Right-wing conservative here but Hillary would have been better hands down. Let's see how long that "political re-alignment for decades" you were crowing about will last. If it were up to me Cain the CEO and Gingrich the Parlamentarian would be an instoppable ticket!
Posted by: SStrengari | October 05, 2011 at 09:42 PM
I want real change and will thus be voting for Ron Paul, even if I have to write him in like I did in 2008. Long Live Liberty in America.
Posted by: L.C. | October 05, 2011 at 09:46 PM
Would a Huckabee entering the race rally all of these supporters to win the primary?
Posted by: dan higgins | October 06, 2011 at 02:38 PM