Cain leads nationally

Yesterday PPP released numbers showing Herman Cain leading Mitt Romney 30-22 in Iowa and our monthly look at the national picture finds the exact same numbers.  Cain is up 30-22 on Romney with Newt Gingrich sneaking past Rick Perry for 3rd place at 15% to Perry's 14% with Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.


Strong Tea Party support has Cain in the driver's seat nationally, just as he has been on our last four individual state polls.  With non-Tea Party Republicans Romney actually leads Cain 29-27.  But with the Tea Party crowd Cain is getting 39% with Gingrich at 16%, Perry at 14%, and Romney in 4th place at 13%.  Romney doesn't need to win the Tea Partiers to be the Republican nominee.  But he does need to finish better than 4th with them.

There are indications within the poll that Cain's stay at the top could be short lived. Only 30% of his supporters are solidly committed to him with 70% saying they might still go on to support someone else. Those numbers aren't much better for Romney, who only has 31% of his supporters solidly committed, or Gingrich, who only has 34% solidly committed.  The strongest base of support among the Republican front runners- even if it's shrinking- is Perry's- 48% of his remaining backers say they'll definitely vote for him. Overall 70% of Republicans are either undecided right now or open to voting for someone different than who they're with now- that signals an extremely wide open race.

Other notes on our national poll:

-For whatever reason there's no doubt Gingrich is the candidate besides Cain who's had the most momentum on their side in the last month. His net favorability has increased 20 points from +7 at 46/39 to +27 at 57/30. And his share of the vote has increased from 10% to 15%. In an extremely fluid field he could yet prove to be a serious contender.

-Michele Bachmann really could end up with no support.  Not only is she down to 5%, but only 18% of her supporters are sure that they'll end up voting for her. That puts her solid support below 1%. If she realizes it's over and drops out before the end of the year Cain would be the largest beneficiary.  46% of Bachmann's few remaining backers say he's their second choice with no one else getting more than 17% second choice support.

-Although the openness of Cain's supporters to voting for someone else makes his leading position tenuous, you can also make the argument that he has the greatest potential for building on his current level of support in a meaningful way. 24% of GOP voters say he's their second choice with no one else above 15%- that's Gingrich and he's followed by Romney at 12% and Perry and Bachmann at 10%. Romney and Perry may continue to be viewed as the most likely nominees but there aren't a lot of people currently not in their camps who are open to joining them.

-This almost doesn't seem worth commenting on anymore but Perry's support is down 17 points from a month ago, from 31% to 14%. And his net favorability has declined 3o points from +34 (58/24) to only +4 (42/38).

-I'm a little surprised Rick Santorum hasn't had a surge yet given all the unrest in the Republican field.  He has pretty solid favorability numbers at +25 (43/18). That makes him more popular than Romney (narrowly) and Perry and Bachmann by a wide margin. Only Cain and Gingrich do better among the GOP contenders.

-I'm not at all surprised that Jon Huntsman hasn't had a surge yet. He continues to be unpopular with Republican primary voters- 20% see him positively to 31% with a negative opinion.  He is particularly unpopular with Tea Partiers at 20/40.

-Part of Cain's rise is because Republican voters are comfortable with where he stands ideologically. 71% say his views are 'about right.' That compares to only 53% for Perry and 51% for Romney.  Romney's problem is almost all with people who think he's too liberal- 31% of primary voters.  Concerns with Perry are more divided- 17% think he's too liberal, but 14% think he's too conservative.

-If the race came down to a two way match between Cain and Romney, Cain leads 48-36.  Cain would pick up Bachmann, Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum's supporters.  Romney would get Huntsman and Paul's.  Cain would absolutely crush Perry in a head to head, 55-27. He would win over the supporters of every other candidate, including Romney's by a 56-24 margin. Romney's supporters really don't like Perry. It seems so last month to even mention this but Romney leads Perry 48-38 now in a head to head- that's a 22 point reversal from September when Perry had a 49-37 advantage on that question.

-Republican voters are still evenly divided about whether or not Barack Obama was born in the United States- 39% say he was, 39% say he wasn't. Although it's been speculated that the birther movement is about race Cain actually leads the way with those voters at 25% to 17% for Gingrich, 12% for Romney, and 10% for Perry.

Full results here

Comments

[Paul Rosenberg]

Birtherism is still very much about race. Cain is a "good black" in conservatives eyes, reinforcing their racial worldview, telling them exactly what they want to hear. This makes him the ideal messenger for them.

For deeper background on this, see Corey Robin on the "Outsider politics" form of rightwing populism here: http://coreyrobin.com/2011/10/07/the-new-york-times-review-of-the-reactionary-mind-my-response/

[Joe]

The idea that a very wealthy person should pay the exact same PERCENTAGE of his income as a poor wage earner or a lower middle income worker is absurd.

The Pizza man needs to be thoroughly scorned and ridiculed for msaking such a proposal.

And the national sales tax definitely WOULD impact the poor more than the rich, since more of the poor's incomes is spent on food and necessities of life.

The Cain plan, by several calculations, would NOT raise anywhere near the amount of money necessary to keep the government runnuing smoothly. And not enough money to keep the social safety net in place and properly fund social security and medicare and medicaid for the future.

[Obama 2012]

Just... holy sh&t! I can't believe how crazy the Republican voters are. Herman. Cain. No... really!?! Are these people serious? And the second coming of Newt Gingrich? Maybe they really are crazy enough to deny Romney, the only guy who can actually beat Obama, the nomination. I love it.

[Deryk]

I think it is hilarious that liberals are so focused on Race that they end up chasing their tails. They love Obama so much that they can't imagine that people would dislike him for any reason other than "he's black". So all conservatives have to be racist.(For the record, we don't like the President because he is a Socialist.) But that argument falls apart when Herman Cain is winning in the GOP polls. So they have to say that conservatives only like Cain because "he's black" which somehow still makes us racist. (For the record I like him because he is honest, aggressive, outspoken, conservative, has a great sense of humor, and is not afraid of the media.)

You know what is really racist? People who can't talk about Herman Cain or Barack Obama without mentioning their skin color. You know who does that the most? The Democrats.

But that's ok. It just goes to show that liberal politics and policies can't be defended with logical discussion, so they have to result to petty insults and hate speech. Which, at the end of the day, makes Conservatives look more intelligent, logical, and open to dialogue than their opponents. Thanks!

[Obama 2012]

I agree with Mr. Rosenberg - birtherism is about race (and insanity.) Herman Cain is every tea partier's "black friend." They only accept him because he parrots everything they say.

And we'll see if they actually nominate him...

[bruno]

Personally i find this poll a Pure Joke Cain leading with 30%? and Ron Paul with 5%? i mean come on other polls now have Ron Paul in thrid place, Cains 999 Plan will be a disaster.

If i Were you, i will be looking for someone who can restore americas image into the world, by not been a war monger president, sadly cain is a very strong war monger idealist.

Why cant you people see it?

[realnrh]

Sane people tend to ascribe a degree of racism to right-wingers because there is a strong strain of racism in the American right wing. That doesn't mean every right-winger is racist, but the vast majority of racists are right-wingers. In addition, since anyone with two or more brain cells functioning knows that President Obama is not a Socialist, people assume that anyone claiming otherwise must be using that ludicrous statement to avoid expressing their true reasons.

[buzdad]

@realnrh. The majority of people who are racists are Democrats. You keep bringing it up. You have your own CBC club. And anyone who dares say anything about Obama is immediately slandered. Give me a break

[gbvinla]

Bruno Get command of the english language before you post. It's "I would be looking...." and "by not being a war monger". You must be a product of the current union led teaching system.

[gbvinla]

realinrh, Quotas based on race are raceism in reverse.O bama expresses socialist policies, ie reditribution of wealth and that the government is the only one that can create jobs. If it walks like a duck and smells like a duck, it must be a duck.

[Tamara]

Boy there are some stupid people commenting on here. The poor are eliminated from fair tax, an individual in either prebated or rebated for their taxes in ALLLLLLLLl fair tax plans being promoted with the cut off for an individual at 32K. Some refuse to study what might be fair to all... because that would make way too much sense... 999 is the road to FAIR TAX dear goobers!

[Doconicus]

You leftists/stateist are the worst gaggle of bigots I've ever seen collected in place. You have b--s--t elitist ideas of what you think right-wing people are. You're all completely wrong of course, but your small intellects and large ego's won't allow you to prevail that.

You all say, Cain is the TEA party choice becuase they are racists. But if he didn't win, it would be becuase they are racists. Your whole identity is about sitting on a sideline and pointing out who the racists are and feeling wonderfully smug.

Normal right-wing people don't care about race, they care about fellows pulling thier weight, and being good stewards of the nation we all live in. The lefist have always been about control and domination which makes them naturally racists in it's purist darkest form. You all should be ashamed of yourselves. But that would require a conscience, which coming from the proles that applauded Rosie Odonnell who thinks that the nations solution is to put the educated resourcefull and energetic into 're-education camps' alle' Pol Pot, that is until they can get around to mass murdering them. (oh, we know what you libs mean by 'rich'. I mean afterall NPR is one of the most anti-semetic institutions out there.)

You're all animals and deserve nothing.

[bo jangles]

Cain got busted lying; we'll see how fast these polls drop

[blackyb]

Herman Cain will win the Presidency.

[Ronald Wagner]

Herman Cain is the foremost candidate for conservative Republicans and independents. They love him because he expresses their views. Conservatives are on a roll and taking over the Republican Party. The conservatives are replacing the RINOS. Get used to it. Romney is a moderate. Cain is a great salesman for conservatism. He is the antidote to RINO weakness, and business as usual. He will work to cut the government down to size and restore fiscal sanity.

[n8]

whether or not Obama is constitutionally eligible to serve as President has absolutely nothing to do with race. it has everything to do with a lack of actual records, a refusal to turn over records, two blatant forgeries released and no answer as to why he uses a SS number that was registered 20 years after his birth in a state (Connecticut) that had no relation to his birth.

then there are the other NON-RACIAL aspects of the shady real estate deal in chicago, the corrupt Illinois health services committee he was chairman of while state senator and many other illegal transgressions that have gotten no investigation by mainstream reporters.

[Obama 2012]

Imagine if middle class Republicans realized that the policies they are supporting are costing them thousands of dollars per year?

If wealth was "spread" the same way it was pre-Reaganomics/TrickleDown ... the average upper middle class family would be making $12,500 more per year.

This is not just about the poor & the jobless. This is about everyone but the top 1%!

When you support far right wing candidates like Herman Cain you are not supporting your own interests unless you are a greedy Wall Streeter without concern for your nation.

[David Marshall]

Ditto. Herman Cain will be the next President!!!! Lets help make that happen http://www.hermancain.ws

[Linda]

I have LOVED Herman Cain from the beginning, he's a true conservative and the epitome of the realized American Dream! I'm a registered Repub woman, TEA party supporter and total BIRTHER! Yes, Obama is as fake as a 3 dollar bill! Everything about this man is forged and phony. Both birth certificates are badly forged created docs, he's using a stolen SSN from Connecticut, he even had the gall to forge his Selective Service registration in 2008 when he should have filed it in 1980! wake up people, we were duped in 2008! he is illegal in every sense! Read what is happening on this issue at birtherreport com this is serious, he needs to be prosecuted!

[D]

Neither of the birth certificates (short form and long form)are forgeries as both are certified by the State of Hawaii. As to the experts produced by the birthers - well they were answered by John Woodman.

http://www.obamabirthbook.com/

He has been using the same SSN since at least 1980. There is no evidence of Social Security fraud. And there is no such thing as a Connecticut Social Security Number (Connecticut does not issue SSNs. His Selective Service records have been released by the Selective Service System so why would they forge such records?

So far all the birthers have been able to produce is smoke and mirrors, absolutely no substance. Everything is based on unreliable public databases.

[Betty Nash]

I watched Herman Cain on TV the first debate in SC, where some top candidates did not feel it was that important to be there. I was stongly impressed by Herman McCain, as were the South Carolinians. This man is not afraid politically to speak the truth and what he believes. He is smart, business savvy, wants jobs back in America where they belong, and I think with his business expertise will get this going for America. He is a Christian, Pro-Isreal and will not be too weak to flex our military muscle. He makes more sense than any of the other politicians, answers questions forthright, without dancing around the subject. He's my candidate and hope he wins the nomination.

[July0006]

Cain's 999 plan has been shown to be another money grab by the rich at the expense of the middle and lower classes.

"The plan would represent a “major tax cut” for the rich and raise taxes “substantially” on the poor and middle class, Williams said. "Given that a big chunk doesn’t pay any income tax, this would be a big tax increase on people at bottom end. At the top end, the opposite happens."

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/12/8290508-tax-group-9-9-9-a-major-tax-cut-for-the-rich-substantial-increase-on-others?ocid=twitter

There is absolutely no doubt that Cain is a conservative Republican.

[Ricky]

Romeny isn't going to win the south. He's a northerner with northern liberal ideas. Southerners have always been leery of northerners and for good reason. Northerners want to impose. We want to just simply LIVE OUR LIVES. Take care of our own first. That's what it's about. Charity begins at home. Cain is a true southern conservative. He talks the talk and walks the walk. He's a man who said I am me. I determine my destiny and with God's good grace I will be somebody. He has achieved. He has overcome. He should be touted by the liberal establishment as what America is all about. HE IS A TRUE BLACK MAN THAT HAS ACHIEVED IN AMERICA!!!! What do the liberals do? Tear him down. Herman Cain will be the 45th President of the USA ......Mark my words.

[Joyceann]

I don't think we have seen the top of Cain's popularity - but the reason there's a hesitancy - is because we are well aware that we must more importantly remove Obama. We will vote for the neighbors dog to get him out. We know the GOP is shoving Romney. We don't want a politician. We will find out just how much power we have. We will have Cain unless the GOP money to too much, then we might have to accept Romney. If we do, we will make them pay dearly. But we will stand behind one person and not be an ineffective split.

[Frank Bixler]

When will american's realize that the vast majority of presidential candidates are simply tools of their party's governing regime. What they say during campaigns dosnt come into play when they are in office, unless it suits the greater party stratagem to cling to power. Usually they just say it to pull enough of the electorate behind their campaign, then hope people dont think about politics for four years, when they manipulate the populace again.

The only presidential candidate we know for certain isnt a tool of his or her party is Ron Paul. We know this for a fact because for his entire political career he has voted consistently for the policies that he believes in. Ladies and gentleman, we finally have an honest man running for president! Please, if you find yourself disastisfied with the pick of presidential candidates, look into
Ron Paul and what he intends do as president, and keep in mind that Paul actually intends on doing these things for the greater good of this nation and the world. Then decide for yourself who you'd like to be our nation's next president.

[Elegy]

@realnrh
I have been all over the world and the 2 most racist groups of people I've ever spoken to, by a longshot, are modern American "liberals" and middle eastern Muslims. When you people actually can look past the color of a person's skin, like the majority of us did 50 years ago, this country will be a much better place.

[clinton malloy]

Gingrich is only candidate that knows what needs to be done to fix the problems of america.

[Eloise Voyles]

I would like to see Herman Cain defend the 999 plan. Cain can't put 999 in place without the House and Senate. It looks like poor will be at a disavantage, He needs to clear this up, to get the poor's vote.
I would vote for Cair or Gingrich. I am glad to see Gingrich comming up in the poles.