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September 20, 2011

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Elaine

Like I've said on many occasion now, please use Warren's full name, either one, since there are two Warrens in the race.

Sophie

I like the fact that you were the first pollster to give Brown the lead in 2010, and now you're the first pollster to give Warren the lead for 2012. :)

Obama 2012

Now this is good news! A lead with only 62% name recognition? .. damn good!

The bonus should be that Brown is going to have to move hard left to have any chance of competing with Warren which could be very helpful in the short run.

Dean

I'm very glad Republicans blocked her nomination to CFPB. Let someone else sit and be filibustered for 2 years while she takes back an important seat that should never have been lost in the first place.

Sen. Brown should have been doing all he could to persuade his colleagues not to filibuster her months ago. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy.

George

Good work PPP! If this were September 2012 Warren will defeat Brown! Depends on how big Obama wins in MA!

George

By the way, are you testing the Obama poll numbers against various GOP candidates? Would be great if sometime you can do that for NY state too given the recent defeat of the Dems in NY-9.

Whitey Ford

Elizabeth Warren is so left wing radical it is scary! In addition, she is a total beeatch.

Whitey Ford

Why are you people so interested in the continued destruction of our great nation? I don't want to be Greece. Therefore, you will all vote for Scott Brown.

Dick

She IS the nanny state

Dick

Look att the little commies holding hands in the PPP logo

-- what a scream!!!

keep trying clowns!!

TallDave

+25D? Maybe in 2008.

Stormy

What are Warren's accomplishments that qualify her to be Senator? Anything? anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Sounds like Barack Obama all over again. But, then we are talking about Mass., aren't we?

Linda

A polling agency, when talking of an increase in positives from 21 percent to 40 percent, should know that means her positives have increased 19 percentage POINTS, not 19%. Same with the increase in negatives, etc.

W T Keene

The Dems do need someone like Elizabeth Warren in the Senate, they don't have enough policy wonks there. But as a moderate the Republicans need Scott Brown as well. As both are useful to the party causes, Warren should go against Kerry in 2014, who is useless to the Democratic Party's cause.

That said, the demographics of this poll are seriously off. In 2009, among adults (not registered or likely voters) Gallup found that in MA 30% identify as Conservative, 38% Moderate, and 29% Liberal. I have a hard time believing that in two years that has changed to 27% Conservative, 35% Moderate, and 38% Liberal. Not to mention that this poll understates the percentage of McCain voters by 4%, and overstates the amount of "Other" voters by 7%. How does that make sense, when enthusiasm for Obama is likely to be lower in 2012 than in 2008.

Dustin Ingalls

Whitey Ford, stop soiling the name of one of the greatest Yankees of all time.

Proud Progressive

George, here's a recent NY poll done by Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac
9/13-18/11; 702 Likely Voters, 3.1% Margin of Error
New York

Obama Job Approval
50% Approve, 45% Disapprove

2012 President: General Election
Obama: 52%, Generic Republican: 33%

paul

Elizabeth Warren wouldn't even be considered a joke candidate in any other state except Mass.

But then again, so were Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.

Scott Brown is redemption from your awful past.

Bobinfl

It's time to get rid of all republicans & tea baggers, their ruining our country.

aWilliam

I notice all the dimwitted comments come from a guy named "Dick." Sometimes that's just too perfect,,,Know what I mean?

WK

Whitey Ford, what about her is radical? Please draw the connection between her policy beliefs and the Greek debt crisis (you know, the one Goldman Sachs helped them hide from the EU). This is exactly the type of illegal, unethical, and unnecessary risk that high finance engages in on the back of the global economy AND what Elizabeth Warren is trying to stand against. Don't be a tool.

Steven M

I have spent my entire life in Massachusetts, and while voters there are well known for supporting nutty, far-left wackjob candidates repeatedly, such as Ted Kennedy, I doubt that Elizabeth Warren will win this race, or even come very close.

Worcester, Plymouth, and Barnstable counties have moved away from the democrats in huge numbers, not just in Brown's election but also in the 2010 midterms. Nearly half of Worcester County's state representatives are republicans now, for instance, and the rest of the state is trending the same way, although less so.

These suburban counties like Worcester and Plymouth are the parts of the state that really contain most of the middle-class voters that Warren is claiming to represent. Unfortunately for her, they are also the most heavily GOP and trending in that direction. Her poll numbers have likely spiked due to the recent media attention she has received, but it is impossible to say whether this will be a lasting trend, and I highly doubt it.

Elizabeth Warren has nothing to offer Massachusetts or America other than empty, patronizing rhetoric, and over the next year people will realize that.

Justin

The number of exclamation points used in any comment is directly correlated with the level of rabid hysteria experienced by the author at that moment. Dick is exhibiting level 5 hysteria, for example.

henrick

zzz...Well at least you can say PPP is consistent - consistently trying to create a perception on behalf of the left rather than using honest polling methodology.

Dustin Ingalls

"+25D? Maybe in 2008."

According to exit polls, it was +26 in 2008, so this is comparable. Makes sense, since it's a presidential election year, and it's a deep-blue state.

"hat said, the demographics of this poll are seriously off. In 2009, among adults (not registered or likely voters) Gallup found that in MA 30% identify as Conservative, 38% Moderate, and 29% Liberal. I have a hard time believing that in two years that has changed to 27% Conservative, 35% Moderate, and 38% Liberal."

Seriously? There's not that much difference, especially when you're talking about voters, and when we break it down into "very" and "somewhat." Also, it's 2012, not 2009, a more conservative environment.

"Not to mention that this poll understates the percentage of McCain voters by 4%, and overstates the amount of "Other" voters by 7%."

Uh, it's an Obama +26 set of poll respondents, and he won the state by 26 points, so....

Mauibrad

AWESOME! YOU GOIN' DOWN PRETTY BOY BROWN! RINO!

The Interesting Times

Looking at some of your crosstabs, it appears that Generation X is the most pro-Brown age demographic in Massachusetts. As Generation X gets older (and seeing that older people tend to vote in greater numbers), I wonder if we'll see Massachusetts getting less blue in the coming years.

Daniel Berman

Massachusetts has two trends going on simultaneously. Justin is correct, the blue collar towns in Worcester and northern Middlesexx county are moving to the GOP.

The problem is at the same time they are, the high-income Weld Republican towns like Winchester, Wellesly and Weston are moving in the direction of Lexington, ie. to becoming solid Democratic. Mitt Romney easily carried all three, but Brown lost one and only marginally carried the other two.

Winchester in particular voted 59-37 for Romney in 2002, 48-40 for Patrick in 2006, 51-48 for Brown and then 48-48 for Baker. For those caring about PVI, that means it went from R+9 in 2002 to R+6.5 in 2006, to D+1 in the 2010 special. To make matters worse these are not blue-collar Democrats or swing voters so much as Rachel Maddow-Democrats, ie. anti-Republican voters at least in state elections.

And while only part of the state, and a small part, Worcester, Plymouth, and Barnstable don't have that many voters either, and Barnstable is also a victim of the gentrification trend. Brown won them with 60% or more last time. The GOP margin of error for winning in Massachusetts is very narrow, and has little room for error. Ask Mary Connaughton, who should be Auditor now.

The result of the two trends at the statewide level has been to raise the generic vote for both parties. For the GOP this means the gains they are making in the legislature and perhaps eventually a seat in Congress. For the Democrats however it means their rock solid vote is approaching 50% even if their median vote is headed down. A decade of 55-45 statewide races looks a lot better than the decade of 64-36 ones we had, but Republicans actually won then. Its not a worthwhile trade if no Republicans are actually winning.

This poll seems to agree with what I have seen, albeit perhaps 4-5 points more Democratic than reality. Brown was never going much above 54% And Warren, even as a bad candidate with a bad campaign will likely muster 46-47. Thats where this, like all competitive statewide elections in Massachusetts, is likely to be fought.

The Interesting Times

Something else I noticed in the crosstabs: Non-whites are more supportive of the GOP and its candidate in Massachusetts than whites are. I can't think of any other state where I remember seeing that...

The Interesting Times

W.T. Keene, I just recomputed this poll for you, weighting the partisan breakdown according to the Gallup results you mentioned. Under that partisan breakdown, Brown defeats Warren 46%-41%.

realnrh

Oh, look, a mob of teatards coming in to complain that the pollster who just happens to have nailed election after election after election for the last four years is suddenly showing that a Republican in Massachusetts does not perform well against a Democrat with a positive approval rating. The same logic used for 'lowering the tax rate increases government revenue' appears to be in play - that is, the crazy right-wing belief in ideology over reality.

Gianni

"What are Warren's accomplishments that qualify her to be Senator? Anything? anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Sounds like Barack Obama all over again. But, then we are talking about Mass., aren't we?"

....

Dustin Ingalls

"Something else I noticed in the crosstabs: Non-whites are more supportive of the GOP and its candidate in Massachusetts than whites are. I can't think of any other state where I remember seeing that..."

Dude, you know better than that. The MOE on non-whites is 9.7%. That means their two-point lead for Brown over E. Warren could easily be a 17-point E. Warren lead.

mmm

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina.PPP was founded in 2001 by businessman and Democratic pollster Dean Debnam, the firm's current president and chief executive officer.

Jack G

Warren is Patty Murray without the good looks. So your poll shows her even with Scott Brown, not a surprise in a state without a clue. Her rant sounds like the same Neo-Marxist faculty lounge bilge that got us hip deep in Jimmy Carter II - (oh that's right it was Bush's fault). Love the "factory" drivel she was spouting - "we" built the infrastructure - and who is "we"? Makes it sound like the factory owner never paid taxes at all. And no mention of just what the "fair share" of the factory owner should be - love it someone who never worked a day in her life telling business what they owe her. And the room full of nitwits who probably pay no taxes at all applaud like puppets. So are you going to moderate my comment like you did the compassionate contributors calling people "teatards"?

Jack G

Wait til the folks get a load of her rap - she's got the charisma of a spinster school marm. Love her bit about protecting the factory owner from the mobs - LOL - she is the mob coming to loot the factory.

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