Texas Miscellaneous

-Texans want the Longhorns to stay in the Big 12.  38% of voters think the school should stay right where it is, compared to 19% who would like to see it move to the ACC.  Only 6% would have supported the move to the Pac 12 that almost occurred this week with 4% favoring independence and 3% each going for the the SEC and the Big 10.  Among those describing themselves as Texas fans the sentiment for staying in the Big 12 is even stronger- 50% favor that route t0 11% for a move to the ACC and 9% for one to the Pac 12.

Texas A&M fans are excited for their move to the SEC- 49% support it to 23% opposed.  Texans as a whole are a good deal less enthused about the Aggies' choice with 29% favoring it, 26% unhappy, and 45% expressing no opinion one way or the other. Longhorn fans are particularly unhappy with the separation- only 28% are happy to see A&M leave with 41% opposed.

-When it comes to expanded rights for same sex couples Texas voters mirror what we're seeing in most places across the country- they oppose gay marriage but when you throw civil unions into the mix a majority of voters support granting legal rights to gay couples.  Just 29% of voters think gay marriage should be legal, with 61% expressing the opinion that it should continue to be illegal.  59% though support either gay marriage or civil unions with just 40% opposing any sort of recongition for gay couples.  Democrats (73%) and independents (72%) are about equally in favor of gay marriage/civil unions, while Republicans give only 41% support.

-With the possibility of another Texan ascending to the White House looking ever more likely, support in the state for seceding from the United States is on the decline. In June before Rick Perry started really moving toward a bid we found that 18% of voters in the state supported getting out of the Union, with 71% opposed.  Now the desire for secession has declined to 14% of voters with 76% disavowing that possible.  The drop has been particularly pronounced among Republicans- they've gone from 25% support for secession to 17%.

-Speaking of Perry if you want to know why he's underperforming in Texas, leading the state by only 7 points when John McCain took it by 12, consider this: just 28% of voters agree with him that Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme while 55% disagree.  Although Republicans (47/28) agree with his sentiment, independents (69/23) and Democrats (80/9) are considerably more unified in their disagreement.  Perry's also out of step with Texas voters on a couple of other issues he's been vocal about- his constituents believe in global warming by a 48/40 margin and in evolution by a 46/41 spread.

-There's been some discussion in Pennsylvania about moving to a system where electoral votes are dispensed by Congressional District instead of all going to the statewide winner. Texas voters say they would prefer making such a switch in their state- 37% support making that change compared to 33% who would rather stay with the current system.  Unsurprisingly Democrats support the move while Republicans don't- tipping the balance is that independents by a 48/31 spread also favor going to a Congressional District winner allocation system.

-Finally we asked voters in the state for their favorite college, MLB, and NFL teams.  On the college front Texas wins out with 23% to 15% for Texas A&M, 11% for Baylor, 9% for Houston, 8% for Southern Methodist, 5% each for TCU and Texas Tech, and 2% for UTEP.  The Rangers win the MLB sweepstakes with 36% to 22% for the Astros with no one else in double digits: the Cubs at 9%, Red Sox at 5%, Braves and Yankees at 4%, Rockies at 3%, and Cardinals at 1% round out the field.  And the Cowboys are dominant on the NFL front with 49% to 23% for the Texans, 5% for the Saints, 3% for the Steelers and Broncos, 2% for the Chiefs and Titans, and 0% for the Giants.

Full results here

Comments

[Gerald]

I think that PPP is rendering an important public service with its state polling on marriage equality. I want to thank you for it.

That having been said, I take exception to the spin on the marriage polling in the PPP blog in the last few posts. You are missing the story. If a man endeavors to walk from New York City to San Francisco and PPP checks in on him when he is passing through Colorado, the story is not that he hasn't yet made it to California. The story is that he has made enormous strides toward achieving a once-distant goal.

Every single poll you have taken has shown opposition eroding rapidly when compared to polls and actual vote totals from 2004-2008. It is true of course that ample majorities in states like TX, MO and SC oppose gay marriage. But opposition in these states was overwhelming only a few years ago. Compare the PPP results with the referenda votes in these states:

SC - Banned gay marriage and civil unions in 2006 by a vote of 78-22. Five years later, PPP clocks opposition at 69-21; opinion on civil unions 48/51 percent.

TX - Banned gay marriage and civil unions in 2005 by a vote of 76-24. Six years later, PPP finds opposition at 61-29. Civil unions, explicitly banned in 2005, now has 59% support, 40% opposed.

MO - Banned gay marriage only in 2004 by a vote of 71-29. PPP finds opposition 7 years later, PPP finds opposition at 59-32. Civil unions get 62% support.

Decline in opposition:
SC - 5 years - 9 points SSM/27 points CUs
TX - 6 years - 15 points SSM/36 points CUs
MO - 7 years - 12 points SSM/CUs unknown

It is worth noting that these shifts have not come about as the result of any lavish ad campaigns or voter education effort in any of these states. They are simply happening as a matter of course as the country as a whole changes. That is the real story to come out of these red state polls and the one that should have been highlighted in your press releases and on the blog.

[PJ]

Texas currently has two same-sex divorce cases before the state supreme court. The question is whether a same-sex couple can get a divorce in Texas if they were legally married in another state. It would be VERY interesting to see what the poll numbers are on this. I'd be willing to bet that a large majority of Texans would favor allowing the divorce, even though they would typically oppose "recognizing" the marriage. Any way you could slip a question like this into your next poll?