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September 07, 2011


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NY-9 should have a gay marriage question. It's a major issue in the campaign.


You cannot poll in NY-9 on either Friday evening or Saturday evening because of the large Jewish population that won't pick up a phone then.

Tom Jensen

The way we will do this poll is to call everyone in the sample Thursday night, then do callbacks Friday morning, Friday night, Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, Sunday afternoon, and Sunday night. So Jewish households will have four different opportunities to answer with the rounds of calls Thursday night, Friday morning, Sunday afternoon, and Sunday night.


Another NY-9 question that should be a must: Do you approve of Obama on Israel.


Poll Heller vs Berkley again in NV2 and if you can the GOP primary (I know that's asking for a lot, but it would be great to see the Romney vs Perry drama with those repubs).

Poll Chuck Schumer approval in NY9 and Elizabeth Holtzman favorability, along with Obama versus generic republican there since that district went for the POTUS 55/44 as the nation voted for him 53/46.

For your nationwide GOP primary poll please share Rick Perry's favorability with Romney primary voters and Mitt Romney's favorability with Rick Perry voters, (it was very predictive when you did that for the McCollum vs Scott primary).


Good answer on that.
NV-2 should have a Heller-Berkeley question like your poll for Kos that by the way doesn't look like it was very accurate. 1/20 polls should be inaccurate according to polling science.

Ben Neal

obviously, some questions on Israel in NY-09, specifically Obama's handling, etc.

As for Kinder...some sort of "do you think he's fit to hold public office..." and perhaps do the same for Jay Nixon just for comparison. And a "do you think McCaskill supports Obama too much, the right amount or too little" ?.


I'm also for a GOP primary question in NV-2 like the above commenter. We should see if Magellan's poll makes sense.
You can ask in NY-9 if they are Jewish or of any other faith like Siena asked. Should be useful.

jon smith

You should ask whether people think Kate Marshall is too far to the left, too far to the right or just right. Curious to think if her attempt to move to the right of Amodei on taxes has made her unpopular with the Democratic base.


if you want an almost generic MO-Gov question, poll a Jay Nixon/Bill Randles matchup. Randles is the only other announced MO-Gov candidate but pretty much unlikely to do much overall. If Kinder's percentage isn't much higher than Randles, that's not good for Kinder.

I'm guessing the best way to figure out sentiment on Kinder amongst Republicans would be asking if they'd support him or want someone else to run for Governor instead.

And for the sake of fun, ask them which conference the University of Missouri should be a part of between the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, or other.

Mark B.

I hope PPP will poll all three candidates in NY 9, including the Socialist Workers Party nominee. As far as I know only Magellan has included him in their results, and third-parties have been known to make a difference in NY congressional specials...

Nawaid Ladak

For the national poll, maybe start some index on voter's political knowlage. ie: "Have you contacted your local congressman in the past three months?" We already know most Americans are fed up with washington politics. lets find out if they are just ingoring them or are they trying to fix that mess by contacting their elected officals.

Maybe a general approve/disapprove question on their local representitive. ie "Do you approve or disapprove of your local congressman in the House of Representitives?" and "Do you approve or disapprove of your state's two senators". We know americans hate the job performance of congress in general, but how do they see their local representitives. Using specific names would be to complicated, so this general approach i think may be the right one.


An alternative you can test against Jay Nixon would be Kit Bond if Kinder gets the boot. I know he just retired but I remember the democrats almost recruiting John Breaux to run against Bobby Jindal for governor in 2007 despite the fact that it seemed he retired for good. If you still need more to do test a Carnahan vs Blunt rematch, if the margin is significant smaller, it could be predictive


There has been some noise about Republicsns trying to pull former Sen. John Danforth into MO-GOV. I'd be interested in seeing how he does against Nixon as compared to Kinder.


For both special elections, ask the additional "Which party would you rather see control Congress?" and see if any candidate is getting crossover support - "I'd generally like party A to control Congress, but I prefer the actual candidate of party B."

Since there's a large Jewish population in New York and a large Mormon population in Nevada, it might be worthwhile to ask for religious identification in both, also.


include McCain as one of the republican options against Obama or ask if they had to re-vote who they would choose.

Joshua C.

You should try to find out the salience of the "Ground Zero Mosque" attack the Republican attempted in NY-09.

Pat H

Good choices:
For Senate, Republicans: Congressman Todd Akin, former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and businessman John Brunner against Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill.

For Governor, Republicans: Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder. The last time you polled here, you tested former Governor Matt Blunt. He would be good to poll again. Also for the GOP, David Cantanese and I think DKE reported about a draft former U.S. Senator Jack Danforth for Governor. Danforth "slaughtered" Nixon in 88' for Senate, and would be curious to see how he would perform. It's a long shot he would run, but it's been a well reported long shot. All of these GOPer's against Dem Gov Jay Nixon.

And for the congressional races, two things I would like to suggest. 1) Poll all candidates like you did for DKE in NV-02. Also, instead of just polling single issue support, I liked what you did in that DKE NV-02, listing a whole bunch of issues, and seeing what is most important, and seeing based on there response, what candidate they favored.

Thank you again for listening to suggestings!

The Interesting Times

Missouri is the home of the Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod, another church that teaches that the Roman Catholic Pope is the antichrist. It might be interesting to see how many people in Missouri agree with that view, considering the connection to Bachmann.


For the sake of reference, Bachmann is a member of the WELS Lutherans, not the LCMS Lutherans. So it might be a bit of a throwaway question to get an 85/10 no response on a Pope question. Especially since Missouri does have a lot more Catholics than Lutherans and more Baptists than Lutherans too.

I don't buy the rumors of a 76yo Danforth running for Governor and I doubt a 73yo Kit Bond would either. Bond did go out saying he didn't want to be Missouri's oldest Senator but I think if he's elected, he'd be Missouri's oldest Governor.

You could ask about "What do you hope the legislature accomplishes during it's special session" or something since the legislature is in a special session at this moment for job creation and local control of the STL police and other assorted things.


oh yeah, one other thing about the guy suggesting you poll "Kit Bond v. Jay Nixon"... Kit Bond can't run for Governor because he served two terms as Governor already. Can't believe I forgot that. Oops.

So yeah, if you want to put hypotheticals v. Kinder, there's Matt Blunt and Tom Schweich. But it would be interesting to know if Kinder has a good margin over the superunknown Bill Randles (Randles might have enough ties to Club for Growth members to see his stock rise if it's him or an uninspiring Kinder)


Ask this question only of republican primary voters, Do you think Social Security is a Ponzi scheme? Perry and Romney debated over it tonight. A bonus would be to include it in your main crosstab categories for primary voters.


2 points on NY-9:

- The Orthodox Jewish community is an important player in this district. PPP should get a religious breakdown of its respondents. Also, as noted above, if you place calls on Friday evening and Saturday, you will underpoll the Orthodox Jews b/c they will not pick up.

- There is a controversy as to whether gay marriage is playing a role in the election. The Democrat David Weprin, a state assemblyman and an Orthodox Jew, voted in favor of gay marriage. The Republican candidate has said that the marriage issue is settled and that he is not campaigning on it. However, a group of conservative Orthodox Jews and the National Organization for Marriage are loudly insisting that Weprin's vote is costing him the Jewish vote.

Accordingly, PPP should ask about gay marriage. But your question should not be the usual support/oppose query. Rather the focus should be on determining the salience of the marriage issue and whether Weprin's vote is helping him, hurting him, or having no impact. If you get the religious breakdown, as suggested above, we should be able to determine whether this issue is having any special resonance with Jewish voters.

- Medicare is a big issue in the race, and was determinative in the last special election in NY. So I would ask about that, and in particular how the issue is helping or hurting each candidate.


In light of tonight's debate I think it'd be interesting to see a question on the national poll on whether social security is a Ponzi scheme.


I completely forgot about Kit Bond's term limits. He finished his second term as governor about 26 years ago. However, you can poll Jim Talent even though he is very unlikely to run.


Any chance that you poll the Mississippi or Louisiana governor races again before the elections ?

Or what about Idaho, Kansas and North Dakota - they are currently grey on your map - I suppose you never did a poll in these states ?

Vince Taormina

Being from Missouri, I think some important questions to ask would be:
1. What is your stance on gay marriage?
2. Should more taxes be paid by the top 2% of income earners?
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the tea party?


I second polling Danforth for Gov, and asking voters in both the GOP primary and the general if they think Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme. For NY-9 asking Jewish as a demographic question would be good too in order to see how much of the race is being defined by Obama's supposed loss of support among Jews.


Well beyond governor, senate and president, I would say that the same-sex marriage question is highly topical. It seems that Missouri is trending more southern in its voting habits, considering that it left its bellweather status in 2008 by voting for John McCain. And like someone else said, it would be interesting to see what Barack Obama's standing in MO is now - would he lose to McCain there again?

Dustin Ingalls

Yes, we've never polled those three states publicly, and we can't legally poll North Dakota.


I second Vince Taormina's questions for Missouri (gay marriage, taxes for the rich, and opinion of tea party).


National poll.

I don't recall you ever doing the legal/illegal version of your same-sex marriage question nationwide. For DKos, you always have done the marriage/civil unions/no recognition version.

Most national polling on this issue is adults. It would be good to see a poll on that using registered voters, even if the result won't be as favorable as the 'all adults' polling.


I agree with jpmassar on the 'legal' vs 'illegal' on the same-sex marriage question. The 3-way option question seems open to quite a lot of interpretation but the 2-way question is also important.

Todd P

For all states, I'd like to see the re-elect numbers for members of Congress, broken out by party. Is one side in bigger trouble with voters than the other?

I would ask 'What is the Party of your congressman?' and 'Does your congressman deserve to be re-elected?'


I don't know if you're still taking suggestions, but it would be interesting in the national poll to see a Obama vs. (Perry or Romney) vs. Ron Paul as a 3rd party candidate.

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