Perry up big in North Carolina, West Virginia

Rick Perry is dominating the Republican race for President in both North Carolina and West Virginia, another data point suggesting that he might be able to sweep the delegate rich South next year.  He had previously led in PPP polls of Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, and of course Texas.

In North Carolina his lead is 23 points.  He's at 35% to 12% for Mitt Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Herman Cain, 8% each for Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Those numbers represent a pretty significant shift over the last month. On our August survey Perry and Bachmann were tied at 17% with Romney just behind at 16%.  Since then Perry's gained 18 points while Romney's dropped 5 and Bachmann's fallen back by 9.

Perry's the only candidate with a favorability number over 50%.  61% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of him compared to 47% for Bachmann, 45% for Romney, and 42% for Gingrich. His support is built like in most places on his strength with 'very conservative' voters.  41% support him with Romney in 4th place at 9% with the largest group of voters by ideology within the North Carolina Republican ranks.

Perry is similarly strong in West Virginia.  There he has a 19 point lead with 33% to 14% for Romney, 11% each for Bachmann and Gingrich, 7% for Paul, 6% for Cain, 4% for Santorum, and 1% for Huntsman.

The West Virginia numbers show several similar patterns to North Carolina. Again Perry is the only candidate seen favorably by a majority of Republican voters with 52% rating him positively to 46% for Bachmann, 41% for Gingrich, and 37% for Romney.  And again the foundation of his lead is a massive advantage with those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' He gets 42% with that group with Romney all the way back in 4th place at 8%.  Just as in NC, that's the largest voter bloc within the West Virginia Republican ranks.

We haven't polled Florida yet since Perry's entry into the race but beyond there it's hard to imagine any state Perry's not winning in the South at this point.  It helps Perry to be the Southern candidate but even more important than that is he seems to have postioned himself as the most conservative option who is simultaneously a credible nominee.  In these states where the electorate leans very conservative that's going to make him tough to beat.

Full results here

Comments

[Steve]

This is a huge problem for Romney. The southerners (and in particular southern Republicans) like one of their own and Mitt Romney is anything but one of their own. Rick Perry could nail Romney through the South. He really could.

[realnrh]

Romney's only hope is to make Perry unelectable, and do so without making his own role in the process too visible. Normally that would be a viable strategy. Not this year, though. The Republicans are a frothing mass of senseless anger (a party full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, as it were) and they don't care how idiotic a plan might sound (as witness their thirty years of support for 'we get more money by lowering revenues'), they don't care how barbaric their policies might be (as witness Republican crowds openly cheering on national TV for executions of innocent people and for poor people dying for lack of healthcare), and they don't care how visibly flawed their candidates might be (see: O'Donnell, Christine). They want someone who says the things they've conditioned themselves to hear, and they've got a zero-tolerance policy on anything else.

Romney has to hope Perry turns out to be nothing more than the latest in the Trump/Cain/Bachmann series of far-right challengers, but Perry is the first one to show up with a base of his own, a level of national recognition, and, crucially, no more better-known challenger waiting in the wings to take the throne.

[Obama 2012]

These numbers indicate that the Republicans are going to be stuck with this "Back to the Dark Ages" Texan Tea Partier as their nominee. It's nice watching their party self destruct. I just hope they don't take the rest of the country down with them.

[waterman3]

Gee whillikers

Nobody except me and the poser in chief still believe in oweblamenomics?

I'm stunned, I yam.