Polls

Perry holds twenty-point leads in NC and WV primaries

| Dustin Ingalls

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PrimaryGraphNC Raleigh, N.C. –
Republicans were just waiting for someone with a Southern swagger.  After Mike Huckabee decided not to run for President in May, Mitt Romney began to do respectably well in the Southern primaries PPP polled in the next few months.  But his support was weak.  As soon as Perry arrived on the scene, he began dominating the field in these states, more than Huckabee or anyone else ever did.  In PPP’s latest polls in North Carolina and West Virginia, Perry has at least a third of the vote, with the next challenger, Romney, in the low to mid-teens.

Tar Heel Republicans give Perry 35% of their support, followed by Romney’s 12%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Herman Cain’s 9%, Michele Bachmann’s and Newt Gingrich’s 8%, Rick Santorum’s 4%, and Jon Huntsman’s 2%.  Perry has doubled his support in the last month, and Bachmann has halved hers.  The two tied for the lead at 17% in August, with Romney just behind at 16%, and Paul and Gingrich each at 11%.  In West Virginia, Perry tops with 33% to Romney’s 14%, Bachmann’s and Gingrich’s 11%, Paul’s 7%, Cain’s 6%, Santorum’s 4%, and Huntsman’s 1%.

PrimaryGraphWV Perry dominates by getting over 40% of the vote in each state with the plurality who call themselves “very conservative,” with Romney at 8-9% with these far-right voters.  Perry also cleans up with the next most populous group, the center-right, with 30-36% of the vote over Romney’s 14%.  Romney only has a small lead in W.V. with the tiny group of moderates, but trails with them in N.C., behind even Paul.

Perry leads in both states despite still being less known than Romney, Bachmann, and Gingrich.  Among those who do know him, though, he has by far the best favorability spread, over 40 points in each state—52-9 in W.V. and 61-17 in N.C.  That compares to Bachmann’s +25 in W.V. and +14 in N.C., Romney’s +7 in N.C. and +6 in W.V., and Gingrich’s -1 in N.C. and +5 in W.V.

PPP surveyed 400 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters, with a +/-4.9% margin of error, and 257 usual West Virginia Republican primary voters, with a +/-6.1% margin of error, from September 1st to 4th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

North Carolina Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 33%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%

Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 35%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q11
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 22%
704………………………………………………………… 24%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 18%

West Virginia Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 32%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 14%

Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 33%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 19%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

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