More South Carolina Miscellany

-Hillary Clinton's campaign for President in 2008 took a huge hit when she got detroyed by Barack Obama in the South Carolina primary. So it's interesting to see now that 57% of Democrats in the state say she'd be their first choice for the party nominee in 2016.  She's followed by Joe Biden at 23%, Andrew Cuomo at 5%, Deval Patrick at 2%, Russ Feingold and Mark Warner at 1%, and Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer at 0%.

The most interesting thing about Hillary's South Carolina numbers is that she's even stronger with blacks at 59% than she is with whites at 54%.  Her husband aggravated black voters in the state in 2008 and probably hurt her cause but there doesn't seem to be any long term damage from that.

We've done similar polls in Iowa (where Clinton was at 44% to 13% for Biden and no one else in doublt digits) and New Hampshire (where Clinton was at 52% to 16% for Biden and no one else in double digits.) It's clear at this point that if Clinton decided to run she would start out as the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Of course that was the case in 2008 too which is why these early polls are fun but not terribly predictive.

If you take Clinton and Biden out of the equation, 61% of voters have no preference.  The best of the rest is Cuomo with 15% followed by Warner at 8%, Feingold at 7%, Patrick at 4%, Gillibrand at 3%, and Schweitzer at 2%.  We didn't do an iteration without Clinton and Biden in Iowa but we did in New Hampshire and Cuomo led there as well with 30% to 18% for Feingold and 13% for Patrick.

-A lot of states are moving toward support for gay marriage or at least civil unions for same sex couples. South Carolina not so much. 69% of voters think it should continue to be illegal compared to only 21% who believe it should be legalized. Strong opposition from Republicans and independents is no surprise but even Democrats think it should be illegal by a 53/34 margin.

Even when you throw civil unions into the mix less than half of voters- 48%- support expanded legal rights for gay couples. 19% support gay marriage with 29% preferring civil unions and 51% opposed to any recognition at all. Safe to say the Palmetto State is not going to be ahead of the curve on this issue.

-You know the Tea Party's popularity is really flagging when a plurality of voters in South Carolina say they don't care for it. 41% have a favorable opinion of the movement to 42% who see it negatively.  Republicans like it and Democrats don't, that's pretty predictable.  Turning the scales against it is that only 27% of independents see it positively to 46% with an unfavorable opinion.  It's safe to say that the Tea Party peaked in 2010- its numbers nationally have been pretty bad all year and now the distaste for it has come to South Carolina.

-Gamecocks fans have had a lot more to cheer about in recent years than the Tigers with very high expectations for the football team this year and back to back baseball national championships.  People in the state appear to be jumping on the bandwagon: 52% of voters say they're Carolina fans to only 25% who express support for Clemson. There's not much variability among demographics groups on that issue: pretty much everyone prefers the Cocks.

-The Falcons had a big head start in earning the loyalty of South Carolina NFL fans but the Panthers have more than overtaken them. 27% say the Panthers are their favorite team to only 10% for Falcons.  No one else registers in double digits- it's the Cowboys at 9%, Steelers at 8%, Redskins at 5%, Colts and Giants at 4%, and Ravens at 2%.

-There is no doubt that South Carolina is Braves Country. 50% say Atlanta is their favorite MLB team and second place is the Yankees all the way back at 10%. That says a lot about who's moving to the state.  Rounding out the list are the Red Sox at 5%, Orioles and Cubs at 3%, Reds and Cardinals at 2%, and Nationals at 1%.

Full results here

Comments

[Steve]

It's very interesting to ready this data on a deep southern state, or at least South Carolina is pretty close to Deep South. As such, there has been precious little current polling on the most conservative southern states' approach to same-sex marriage. Also of interesting is that SC blacks and whites are pretty much in agreement on gay marriage. It will be interesting when you ask this question in states like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, too.
As for the Democratic primaries, my guess is that Hillary is ahead largely because she's the best known at this stage.

[Gianni]

Interesting, especially the bit about gay marriage. Funny how, according to your polls, even Utah suppports some legal recognition. Particularly interesting how young voters oppose recognition even more than the elderly, but when they do support it, they tend to support full marriage equality.

[Gerald]

While gay marriage clearly remains unpopular in South Carolina, I would point out that SC is not immune from the general pro-gay marriage trend.

In 2006, South Carolina passed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and all other forms of "domestic unions" by a vote of 78% to 22%. That is a greater margin than any other state, except for MS, AL, and TN. So the decline in opposition from 78% to 69% in 5 years is significant. However, it is also worth noting that support remains at the same level as it did in 2006 (22 v. 21 percent). Perhaps the 9% of South Carolinians who have moved from opposition to a "don't know" response, are genuinely in flux in their thinking on this issue or perhaps they moved to the "don't know" column b/c they are now pro-civil unions but anti-gay marriage.

When civil unions are considered, the trend in SC becomes a bit more clear. As noted, the 2006 amendment supported by 78% of voters banned civil unions. So a combined support level of 48% for civil unions and marriage clearly shows an erosion of opposition from 2006.

One last point: IMO,the 69% opposition to gay marriage in SC casts further doubt on PPP's recent poll from NC. Although I recognize that NC differs from SC in many ways, and while I would absolutely expect weaker opposition in NC, I find it hard to believe that 55% would vote no on a constitutional amendment. NC isn't *that* different.

[Obama 2012]

Even though Clinton has said many times she's not running again - I do think she will run for and win the nomination in 2016.

Of course saying this in 2011 is a bit silly - a multitude of things could happen between now and then. ... but it seems unlikely to me that Clinton will lose popularity by then and it also seems unlikely that a real Democratic superstar will rise... but then again Obama stole the show at the 2004 convention ... maybe another young Democratic politician will do the same in 2012.

[Dustin Ingalls]

"One last point: IMO,the 69% opposition to gay marriage in SC casts further doubt on PPP's recent poll from NC. Although I recognize that NC differs from SC in many ways, and while I would absolutely expect weaker opposition in NC, I find it hard to believe that 55% would vote no on a constitutional amendment. NC isn't *that* different."

We found that 61% oppose gay marriage in NC. The idea in NC was that 54% support some form of legal recognition, including civil unions, so naturally when you tell people that an amendment would ban even these civil unions, a similar 55% would oppose that amendment. You can be against gay marriage but still not want that discrimination enshrined in the constitution.

[Gerald]

@Dustin:

That's a very fair point. The 61% response in NC brings it more in line with the region. I certainly hope you are right that NC voters can distinguish their views on SSM from their views on the constitutional amendment, which goes further.

In past elections on broad amendments, the voters oftentimes have not bothered to parse the wording of the amendments or understand what they were banning. However, many of the broad amendments were passed in contests where opponents raised very little money and there was very little voter education on the breadth of these provisions.

AZ, which actually defeated a broad amendment in 2006 and then passed a narrow amendment in 2008 in 2 hotly contested elections, shows that if opponents can raise the money and make the effort to focus on the civil unions component of the ban, they have a chance at success. Further evidence of this is that the Prop 8 proponents very deliberately spared civil unions in their amendment, even though they would have dearly loved to eradicate them as well. They seem to understand that, where the measure is vigorously contested, a very broad amendment could be fatal.

[Dustin Ingalls]

I think, and hope, you might be right, but it is difficult to have faith in voters' ability to understand the difference unless a well-funded campaign is waged. I suppose our polling on the amendment reflects what would happen if such a campaign were conducted.