You know Barack Obama's going through a rough spot when his approval rating is under 50% even in Massachusetts. 49% of voters there now approve of the job he's doing to 45% who disapprove. That represents a 17 point drop on the margin from early June when he was at 58/37 in the state.
The reasons for Obama's decline in Massachusetts are the same as they are nationally: he's unpopular with independents and increasingly having more trouble with his party base. Only 42% of independent voters think he's doing a good job, while 53% are unhappy with him. And while Democrats approved of him by an 84/11 spread in early June, that's now declined to 74/20.
Obama's popularity may be on the decline but he still doesn't need to worry about actually losing Massachusetts. Even against the state's former Governor, Mitt Romney, Obama leads 53-40. Romney is not popular in his home state, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion. Texas poll results we released yesterday found Rick Perry with under water approval numbers there so neither of the GOP frontrunners are particularly popular on the home front. Although Romney doesn't appear to have much of a chance of winning the state his 13 point deficit is an improvement from the June poll, when he trailed by 20, and from the 2008 results in the state when John McCain lost to Obama by 26 points.
Obama would win by 2008 like margins against anyone else in the Republican field. He's up 25 points on Ron Paul at 55-30, 26 on Rick Perry at 58-32, 27 on Newt Gingrich at 58-31, and 31 on Michele Bachmann at 59-28. It definitely doesn't say much for Perry's electability that he's doing worse than Paul, even in a state like Massachusetts that isn't likely to have much relevance to the Presidential contest.
The Republican candidates not named Mitt Romney are incredibly unpopular in the Bay State- Bachmann and Perry have matching 22/63 favorability breakdowns, Paul's is 21/61, and Gingrich's is the worst at 21/67.
Full results here
I don't see why Obama is slipping really, he's performing better than ever as far as I'm concerned. But perhaps the polls will catch up to that as more people hear about his absolutely great proposals for the economy. Obama is clearly on the side of the American people right now. The Republicans are standing in the way of needed tax increases on millionaires and on millions of new American jobs. The Republicans are obviously the problem.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | September 21, 2011 at 02:59 PM
I am a lifelong Bay Stater, and while I think you are correct in your assertion that the GOP has little chance of actually carrying the state, I do believe that Obama's awful poll numbers will drag down fellow down-ballot democrats in MA and elsewhere. This already happened last fall, last night in a special election, and I believe it will continue.
The end of the Kennedy dynasty has ushered in a new era in Massachusetts politics, and democrats can no longer take the state for granted.
Posted by: Steven Morris | September 21, 2011 at 04:35 PM
Good to see Obama slipping. He has done nothing to help this country. Even Bill Clinton said raising taxes during a bad economy is not smart. But Obama doesn't care. He could care less about this country. All he cares about is "kissing up" to the liberal's, and not what is in the best interest of our beautiful country!
Posted by: Nobama 2012 | September 21, 2011 at 05:27 PM
The Democrats are in big trouble in Massachusetts!!! Did anyone see that special election last night? A conservative Republican picked up a Democratic seat in the state house!!! A major pickup for the Republican Party of Massachusetts! And he won by more than 8 points, so it was not even close!
Posted by: Thomas | September 21, 2011 at 09:53 PM
Obama 2012,
Everytime, I see your post, I am planning to tell people about Obama ! Did you check the stock market today and yesterday? Just 500 points down ! Did you check the unemployment rate today? It is 9.2%(15.5% with African Americans ! Did you check the latest connection of white house on Solyndra? Did you check the latest rumbling of Clinton on Obama? Did you check the downgrade of all the banks by moody's? Did you check the poll, where more people are blaming obama for economy? Did you check the housing numbers? It should be great fun to be in Organizing for America and ask people to give 4 more years !
Posted by: Ranjit | September 22, 2011 at 05:46 PM
Republicans in Massachusetts have been underwater for so long, it's not surprising they're flailing, grabbing at any faint ray of light they can see, and hallucinating about having a political future in the state. The peak realistic Republican dream for Massachusetts these days is to hold Democrats to less than a supermajority in at least one house.
Posted by: realnrh | September 22, 2011 at 06:39 PM