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September 01, 2011

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TC

Wow, D+19 sample???? Wow you guys are morons!!!

Gianni

Not surprising at all. Kentucky has got around 55% registered Democrats, they just tend to vote Republican in federal elections.

TC

@Gianni, according to 2008 election results, the turnout in the presidential election was D+9. So explain why this sample is 10 points higher in favor of the Democrats in Kentucky than the highest election turnout in Kentucky history since the early 1990s?

JLT

Well, if you look at actual registered voter turnout, 2008 was 58% D, 37% R, 5% other.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/31C5D630-440B-4018-82F5-5E9E438B2C7F/176733/turnoutSUMMARYGEN08.txt

And 2007 (I'm assuming this is the voter model PPP is aiming for) was 61% D, 35% R, 4% other.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/31C5D630-440B-4018-82F5-5E9E438B2C7F/140769/07summary.txt

realnrh

PPP doesn't weight for party registration in these weekly polls. What they get for responses is what they get.

Paul Grant

why would they weight? this isn't an us or them style poll, it's more of party by party poll, as a Kentuckian, there are very large pockets of democrats (Louisville, being one, and Rep. Yarmuth won re-election due to his popularity, and nowhere close to being blue-dog) but even the Dems have a lean conservative due to religon, Louisville/Jeff County does have a full nondiscrimination ordinance(employment, housing, public accomadattion) but marriage was the wrong fight here.

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