Florida close

Mitt Romney's return to the top of the GOP field is very good news for Republicans if they want to knock off Barack Obama next year.  Our newest Florida poll finds that Romney would be in a toss up with Obama in the critical swing state but that Perry trails Obama by 7 points, which would be the biggest margin of defeat for a Republican candidate in Florida since Harry Truman blew out Thomas Dewey in 1948.

Obama's not popular in Florida- only 46% of voters approve of him to 51% who disapprove.  His numbers with independents are particularly bad at 41/52 and there are twice as many Democrats who disapprove of him as there are Republicans who think he's doing a good job.  His numbers look great compared to Perry though.  Only 29% of voters see him favorably to 58% with a negative opinion.  Independents split against him 22/61 and he's already established himself as the candidate Democrats hate the most with 83% giving him a negative rating.  Social Security's a big issue in Florida and only 25% of voters agree with Perry's statement that it's a 'Ponzi Scheme' to 63% who disagree with his point of view.

Perry trails Obama 50-43, including a 53-40 deficit with independents.  Other Republicans make it very close though.  Romney trails only 46-45 and Ron Paul actually does just as well, trailing 45-44.  58% of undecideds in the Obama/Romney match and 72% in the Obama/Paul match disapprove of the President's job performance so odds are those folks would split against him in the end and put the state into the GOP column.  This may be the most positive poll for Paul that we've ever conducted- he leads by 15 points with independents even as the rest of the Republican candidates trail Obama with that voting group. The problem for Paul is that independents like him a lot more than Republicans do and that puts his chances for the nomination at slim to none...but he might really be able to make a dent if he ended up running as an independent instead.

The biggest sign of Perry's weakness in Florida might be that even Michele Bachmann polls better than him there- she trails Obama by just 5 points at 49-44.  The only person Perry performs better than is Newt Gingrich whose deficit against the President is 8 points at 50-42.

Although he's in a lot of trouble in the state one thing Obama does not appear to have in Florida is a Jewish problem. Although it's a small sample he leads Perry by an 82-2 margin and Romney by a 78-11 spread with them.  His overall approval with Jewish voters is 76/20 and specifically on the issue of Israel he's at 61/31 with Jews.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

I'm reasonably happy with these numbers (for Obama) not too bad. I don't think Obama needs Florida in 2012 so if he's close there now ... not bad. Not bad.

[ChuckBaggett]

Looks like Ron Paul is in the number two spot after Romney, yet no mention above. Who'd have guessed

[realistically speaking]

Not on my watch... Are people so naive as to give this obviously inexperienced president want-to-be four more years to completely obliterate what it took over 200 years to create.

Florida, you are in need of a lobotomy. You are truly giving the other cheek, but at iur own expense. What a disaster...

[Bubba]

These numbers look better for Obama than they actually are. First, since the election is still over 1 year away, pollsters are surveying registered voters rather than likely voters (as they should). The majority of the time, a likely voter screen reveals an improvement of republican candidates over democratic candidates. Second, like Tom has been highlighting the past few months, these polls have undecideds showing very high disapproval rates for Obama. Assuming these undecideds break on approval/disapproval lines, both Romney and Paul would be leading in these matchups.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Uh, Chuck, most of the third paragraph is about Paul.

[Teddie]

If Obama I'm cautiously optimistic about my chances in Florida.

[Nobama2012]

At least Florida appears to be waking up. Obama2012, I will say this... If Paul is the GOP nominee, let me know where I can sign up to help the Obama campaign! =)

[realnrh]

RS - http://www.theonion.com/articles/historians-politely-remind-nation-to-check-whats-h,26183/

Might want to at least try to remember what created the mess that President Obama has to clean up. I know 'historian' sounds an awful lot like 'scientist' in Republican circles, but just try taking that advice. Electing a Republican in 2000 is what got us an obviously inexperienced president from 2001-2009 obliterating what it took over 200 years to create (witness the Bush Deficit, the Bush Wars, and the Bush Patriot Act, to name a few). Then we got someone actually competent into office in January 2009 who successfully pulled us out of the Republican-sponsored nosedive despite unprecedented obstructionism by an anti-American Republican party.

[Jay]

Those numbers about Jewish voters in Florida defy all logic. Gallup recently did a poll that shows Obama doing relatively poorly among Jewish voters even though a majority still support him. After the results in NY-9 it should be perfectly obvious that Jewish voters have a problem with Obama which intensified when Obama refused to take a picture with Netanyahu at the White House on his first visit there and was made worse when Obama mentioned something about Israel returning to the 67 borders. In NY-9, Jewish voters disapproved of Obama's handling of Israel by a 2-1 margin. While many Jews will not vote on that issue alone, it doesn't take a genius to figure out he is going to do 10-15% worse than his vote in 2008. I suggest you re-poll in Florida with a subset of Jewish voters big enough to draw meaningful conclusions as you did in your NY-9 poll before that election. After all, most of the Jewish voters in Florida are transplants from guess where- New York.

[Joe]

Republicans are stupid. Paul has the independant vote squarely sitting in his lap and that is the make or break for 2012 in the swings. Both brainless under the table Perry, and Mitt RINOy will have to get in and duke it out for indie votes. If either of them get the nod, I think many indie votes will stay home. The republican party has an opportunity of a generation here by standing up firmly and separating themselves from the democratic party to say that they will stand behind constitutional governance, peace, and prosperity for all! Rick Perry speaks that but its obvious he doesn't mean it. Romney is trying to cover up his record to gain followers in the cause of liberty. Only Paul can say for the last 30 years he has voted by the oath he swore. Elect Paul, and it is a landslide. Obama's lack of integrity will not prevail in that race.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Jay: You can't extrapolate how voters in one place feel to how they'll feel in another place. Also, this poll was taken the week after Obama's administration declined to support Palestinian statehood at the UN, and after Ed Koch said he'd support Obama after endorsing Bob Turner. Things change. Polls are a snapshot of one place at one time. You also have to consider that only 5% of Florida says they are Jewish, so the margin of error on those crosstabs is much higher than for the overall sample, which you sort of acknowledged. If you'd like us to repoll Florida with a larger sample of Jews, we'd be glad to take your money to do that.

[Jackie Lowery]

Amen Joe!

[Jackie Lowery]

I'm 33 and I've never voted in my life, so I think I pretty well represent the independent voter. When i learned about Ron Paul running in 2012, I registered as a Republican so i could vote for him in the primaries. I'd be willing to bet there are 10s of thousands more just like me. Even if you don't agree with 100% of his policies, you know where the man stands. And he stands in a pretty damn good place in my opinion. This will be the first election in decades that I don't feel like I have to vote for the lesser of two evils. Ron Paul will mop the floor with Obama.

[Ed G]

Ron Paul running as an independent would be a true blessing win or lose he can really change the political landscape in our nation for good and forever. He will be no Ross Perot, Ron Paul can truly make this a very interesting race if he opts for an Independent Party run, NOT a Tea party run an Independent party run. This would force true conservatives to see where their loyalty is. It would give Americans an unprecedented opportunity to not have to settle for voting for the "LESSER OF TWO EVILS"

[Jay]

To Dustin- In case you hadn't noticed, there has been a huge amount of press ink on the issue of Jewish voters. PPP would do well to take enough of a sample of these voters and leave the extrapolation to others in so far as it plays out in the various states where the Jewish vote is important enough to make a difference in a close election. I pointed out that Gallup had already done one study. I assume you consider Gallup a competitor. If its good enough for Gallup.....

[David Eron]

It is astonishing how well Ron Paul is polling without even the remotest level of press coverage. I was aghast when he took second in the Iowa straw poll by like 100 votes--percentage wise, he and Bachmann had the same. Yet the press only talked about her, Pawlenty, and Perry. Let's make this simple: if the guy can get this kind of support with zero press, imagine what would happen if the press suddenly said, "Hey, this guy is a real sleeper!" It's a no wonder--we are in a rare moment of national anti-government sentiment. Our government has bankrupted us and we stand on the brink of total financial collapse. Ron Paul has been fighting this system for 30 years now with courage and consistency that is simply not found in most politicians. He is not a charismatic, well-groomed talking head. What he has is substance, and he has it in spades. The GOP hates him because he places liberty above party loyalty. The GOP is as much a part of the problem as the Democratic Party. For me, I have made up my mind. Ron Paul either gets the nomination, or I will vote for him as an independent--on the ballot or as a write-in.

[Dustin Ingalls]

"I assume you consider Gallup a competitor."

They're not really. They're in a completely different ballgame. We don't generally do entire polls on subsets of electorates, especially ones as small as Jews.