Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown by two points

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats looking for a savior may have found one in Elizabeth Warren.  She debuts in the Massachusetts Senate race as the first candidate PPP has found with a lead against freshman Senator Scott Brown over the course of three polls.  Warren has seriously upped her name recognition and favorability with voters, but the main driver behind her gain is Brown’s own sinking popularity.

Once one of the most popular senators in the country, a Republican in a blue state, it would have taken a nosedive in public favor for Brown to be beaten.  And that is exactly what has happened.  Early last December, when PPP first looked at the race, 53% approved and only 29% disapproved of his job performance.  That fell to 48-36 in June.  Only three months later, he sits at 44-45, moving him in only nine months from the 16^th to the 61^st most popular of 87 senators on which PPP has polled.  Brown has only become more popular with the GOP, but they are only 15% of voters.  The 45% independent plurality gives him only a 49-39 mark, versus 61-25 in December.  And the 40% who are Democrats have moved from 35-41 to 31-52 to 25-65, still pretty good for cross-aisle appeal, but clearly on the wrong trajectory.

Warren, meanwhile, has catapulted in voters’ minds very quickly.  In June, 21% had a favorable impression of her and 17% an unfavorable one.  That is now 40-22.

While Warren leads Brown, 46-44, the other candidates still trail due to lower name recognition.  Brown leads Newton Mayor Setti Warren, 47-32; entrepreneur Alan Khazei, 48-33; activist Bob Massie, 49-31; and State Rep. Tom Conroy, 50-31.

“Scott Brown’s status has always been a little tenuous as a Republican in a dark blue state and it’s starting to catch up to him,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The launch of Elizabeth Warren’s candidacy has been an undeniable success and now she just needs to keep the momentum going.”

PPP surveyed 791 Massachusetts voters from September 16^th to 18^th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Conroy?
Favorable........................................................ 4%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 81%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alan Khazei?
Favorable........................................................ 15%
Unfavorable .................................................... 21%
Not sure .......................................................... 64%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Massie?
Favorable........................................................ 7%
Unfavorable .................................................... 16%
Not sure .......................................................... 77%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%
Not sure .......................................................... 38%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Setti Warren?
Favorable........................................................ 10%
Unfavorable .................................................... 20%
Not sure .......................................................... 70%

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Tom
Conroy, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown .................................................... 50%
Tom Conroy .................................................... 31%
Undecided....................................................... 18%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Alan
Khazei, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown .................................................... 48%
Alan Khazei..................................................... 33%
Undecided....................................................... 18%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Bob
Massie, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown .................................................... 49%
Bob Massie..................................................... 31%
Undecided....................................................... 21%

Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat
Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown .................................................... 44%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 46%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Setti
Warren, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown .................................................... 47%
Setti Warren.................................................... 32%
Undecided....................................................... 21%

Q12 Do you think Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ....................................................... 9%
Too conservative............................................. 38%
About right ...................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q13 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ....................................................... 7%
Too conservative............................................. 56%
About right ...................................................... 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q14 Do you think Scott Brown has been more an
independent voice for Massachusetts or a
partisan voice for the national Republican
Party?
Independent voice for Massachusetts............. 47%
Partisan voice for the national Republican
Party ...............................................................41%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 32%
Barack Obama................................................ 58%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 10%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 15%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 23%
Moderate......................................................... 35%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 21%
Very conservative ........................................... 6%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 40%
Republican...................................................... 15%
Independent/Other.......................................... 45%

Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White .............................................................. 87%
Other............................................................... 13%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 9%
30 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 41%
Older than 65.................................................. 24%

Comments

[Jp]

Dear Scott Brown.

Call Congressman Bob Turner (who just won Weiner's old seat) for advice.

(Hint - make it referendum on Obama, the economy and Israel).

[Dustin Ingalls]

LOL, the idea of Israel being an important issue in a MA election is hilarious. Also, I hope he does make it a referendum on Obama--he'd surely lose in as blue a state as MA is.

[Doc]

I was amoung the polled in this poll. What happened to the presidential preference part? What happened to the Texas Secession question! I really want to know how that polled!

[Dustin Ingalls]

We release one set of results per day over a week or so. Presidential results coming later today.

[Joe]

"We release one set of results per day over a week or so. "

So you work for PPP?

[jpeditor]

Anyone who thinks PPP is NOT a Dem focussed push-poll type of operation with a heavy bias for far-left candidates only has to read your comments here:

http://profile.typepad.com/6p015391251932970b

You can prove us wrong by leaving this comment in, or we can just screen shoot this comment as submitted and later "dis-moderated" like you have reportedly done with previous comments critical of your POV.

It is, after all, your website...

[Tom Jensen]

We are an openly Democratic polling company so I'm not sure what you think we're hiding. We approve tons of comments critical of us, you pretty much have to use a racial slur to have your comment not get approved.

[Jay from PA]

PPP polls are very reliable but why have Democratic or Republican bias at all? A pollster should be neutral. If you want to have a bias, you should be in another profession.

[Dustin Ingalls]

It's not an intentional bias. It means that our final polls last year overestimated the support for the Republican candidates we polled, in total, by 0.2%, by far the smallest bias of any pollster measured by Silver for the 2010 cycle. That basically means we were dead on.