Connecticut Senate numbers

The Senate race in Connecticut next year looks like it could be pretty competitive, especially if Republicans nominate Chris Shays.

Democratic front runner Chris Murphy leads Shays only 43-39 in a hypothetical match up.  And Shays beats both Susan Bysiewicz (48-37) and William Tong (46-27).  Shays' strength lies in his appeal to Democrats and independents.  Democrats actually see him favorably by a 41/27 margin, and he wins anywhere from 13% of the Democatic vote (against Murphy) to 24% of it (against Bysiewicz.)  He also leads with independents by margins ranging from 9 points against Murphy to 33% against Tong.

The problem for Shays is that the moderation that makes him popular across party lines doesn't do much for him with Republican voters.  Only 34% of them see him him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion, pretty tepid numbers to have within your own party.  Those numbers pale in comparison to Linda McMahon's- 63% of Republicans have a positive opinion of her to 25% with an unfavorable one and given that it's no surprise that primary numbers we'll release next week show McMahon with a large lead.

Unfortunately for Republicans McMahon doesn't have Shays' appeal to Democrats and isn't as strong with independents either and that makes her a much weaker general election candidate.  Murphy leads her by 7 points at 50-43, Bysiewicz is up a point on her at 47-46, and she leads Tong by just a 45-38 spread.  On average she does 9 points worse than Shays against the three primary Democratic candidates.

PPP first polled on Murphy and Bysiewicz statewide in January of 2010.  Since then their fortunes have gone in very different directions.  Back then Murphy's favorability was a +9 spread at 30/21 and now it's pretty much unchanged at +7 (35/28). Early last year Bysiewicz was far more popular than Murphy with her favorability breaking down at +23 (39/16). Her image has taken a turn completely in the wrong direction and now she's far more unpopular than Murphy at -12 (29/41). Her net favorability has declined 35 points over the last year and a half and it looks increasingly like her nomination would really put this seat in jeopardy for Democrats.

This race really is 2010 all over again for Republicans, not just in Connecticut but nationally.  If Shays is the nominee this is really a winnable race for the GOP.  But the party base is very skeptical of him and if Linda McMahon and her overall 39/49 favorability rating win the nomination again it's hard to see Republicans winning, especially if Democrats go with their more electable candidate in Murphy. GOP voters will just have to decide if they're willing to compromise on ideology for a big upgrade in electability. They weren't last year, but maybe they'll learn their lesson for 2012.

Full results here

Comments

[Sam]

The tea party is the Republican's own worst enemy. I love it.

[Mattai]

It's actually a very simple question, and all in the "court" of the Republicans (nationally, and in CT-SEN). Do you want a Republican in office, or do you not?

The fact is, there are not enough Republican voters to elect a candidate on their own. Unaffiliated voters, and perhaps some "Reagan Democrats" are necessary to prevent the "liberals" from taking a seat. So, are Republicans willing to nominate a moderate who has the ability to attract a large majority of Unaffiliated votes, as well as some conservative/moderate Democrats, or will they only nominate a strict conservative who (continually) has no reasonable chance in the general election??

[Peace]

Chris Murphy all the way!

[Paul Passarelli]

Psst... There is another option that will be around regardless of which opportunist stands in for the Dems or the GOP; Libertarian Businessman & Engineer Paul Passarelli.

Despite referring to myself in the 3rd person, it is my intention to appeal directly to voters from both sides and ash them if they want 6 more years of the same ineffective leadership from their next junior senator.

If the Dem candidate is elected, they will be the most junior senator in the whole body, beneath a senior with only 2 years in, and probably in the minority party too.

If the GOP candidate wins, then the junior & senior will tend to cancel each other out and decrease the State's influence/seniority in the senate to almost zero.

If I successfully earn the voters trust then I would stand un-beholden to either party, free to keep the promises I make to the State of Connecticut and fellow citizens. And since my "political ambition" is to go to DC as what I feel is my civic duty, I'll be counting the days until I can return to my civilian life and walk away from politics, confident that I have served honorably and tho the beast of my ability.

As an entrepreneur, I'm always asked what my exit strategy for the company is. Well I wish to run my company and perform my work in my well equipped research lab. Just so I'm clear, my exit strategy from DC is to return to my company and my lab.

My reason for putting my work, my passion, and my avocation aside is because Washington is a mess, and someone has to clean it up. My career has been based on cleaning up the the false starts and the messes that came before. What I've done in the technical areas I'll do in the political arena.

Please visit my website: http://Passarelli4Senate.com/ for more info.

[Nobama2012]

Maybe Passarelli will get 1% of the vote.

[Peace]

Chris is the man for the job. Democrats care about the people, all Republicans care about is protecting the rich making them richer. Chris cares about the poor and middle class more than any other candidate. He stands behind what he says. VOTE FOR CHRIS MURPHY!!

[realnrh]

When you have a candidate using 'personally posting on a low-volume comment board on the Internet' as a campaign strategy, you know you have a strong shot.