Connecticut a Toss Up?

Connecticut isn't a place that would go on anybody's list of swing states but Barack Obama is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney there, leading only 47-45.

Obama's poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity.  Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49.  That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March- at that time Obama's approval was a positive 55/39 spread.  The decline has come because he's unpopular with independents (41/53) and also because an unusually high 20% of Democrats disapprove of the job he's doing.

Romney's favorability is 41/42, not great numbers but better than he is doing in most states.  In the head to head with Obama he takes independents by 12 points at 48-36 and gets crossover support from 14% of Democrats while losing just 9% of the Republican vote.

The competitiveness in Connecticut is limited to Romney.  Against the rest of the Republican field Obama leads by double digits- it's 12 points against Rick Perry at 53-41, 13 against Ron Paul at 51-38, 16 against Newt Gingrich at 54-38, and 19 against Michele Bachmann at 55-36.

The numbers in Connecticut shape up as part of a broader pattern- Obama is much weaker in New New England than he was in 2008.  Earlier this month we found him ahead of Romney by just 13 points in Massachusetts where he won by 26 last time.  In August he had a 20 point lead in Vermont over Romney, after taking the state by 37 points over John McCain.  When we polled New Hampshire in July Obama had a 2 point deficit to Romney after winning the state by 9 last time.  A Maine poll in March, well before Obama's numbers really started hitting record lows, found him ahead by only 8 after a 17 point victory in 2008. And likewise in Rhode Island where we last polled in February Obama was up 17 following a 28 point win in his first campaign.  On average in New England that makes for Obama doing 14 points worse against Mitt Romney than he did against Joh McCain- that kind of shift nationally would completely sink his chances but he has a fair amount of 'padding' in most of these states that should make it so New Hampshire's the only state really on the table.

At the end of the day Connecticut doesn't seem likely to be too competitive in 2012- but the numbers are still a pretty good symbol of the difficulties Obama's facing these days even on what was once exceedingly friendly ground.

Full results here

Comments

[Matt D]

Not as "shocking" as the tweet said. All this poll proves is that Obama is less popular than he was, and that he may or may not become more popular.

[Hohum Connecticut]

Geez, Connecticut is a non-entity really. By the time Obama's losing NYC's most northerly suburbs, there would've been far more interesting states that he has already lost to the GOP.

[Obama 2012]

I am disappointed with voters. Obama is doing a lot of great stuff right now. People should be on his side because he's on theirs.

The idea of putting a Republican in the White House in 2012 is so absurd ... it's hard to believe there are so many people willing to even consider it.

[DavidE]

This poll shows Obama is relatively unpopular but he could win if he can match up against a candidate who is less popular than he is. My view is that these polls overstate Obama's strength at this point because some Perry supporters deny they will support Romney, etc, even though they will probably come around if Romney becomes the nominee.