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September 12, 2011

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In the Hook

Reid would have been beaten down by Tarkanian or Lowden. He has enough pull and money to have made it somewhat close, but I think the margin would have been around 53/47, 54/46 had the GOP not nominated that nutcase.

Willy

When are you going to release the NC and WV primary numbers ?

Steve

To be fair, this is a very Republican district. Obama tied McCain in 2008 but that was only because McCain/Palin did so poorly in Nevada. President Bush carried this district 57%-41% while Dean Heller was re-elected by a breezy 63%-33% in 2010.

Steve

While your poll was quite close on NY-09, I notice that you were quite far off the mark in Nevada - any thoughts as to why that was?

Sophie

It definitely seems now that all Nevada polling has been very inaccurate for the last 3+ years. First, in 2008 and 2010 (underestimating Democratic strength), and now in 2011 (underestimating Republican margin.) Do you have any idea what's causing this, and any plan to counteract it?

To be fair, though, part of it may simply be from the polling time (if your results were accurate, Amodei definitely had the momentum towards the end.)

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