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September 13, 2011

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celestus

So I'm not a Paul supporter, I promise, but...why is Newt one of the four people you are polling?

Dustin Ingalls

We poll the top four Republicans in our most recent national primary poll. We had been polling the top five, but stopped including Palin as of this last weekend.

pbrower2a

"Ponzi Scheme Perry" has apparently shown himself unelectable.

Jim R. Baumgartner

According to the the Real Clear Politics poll averages, Ron Paul is clearly in 3rd place. Including Gingrich and excluding Paul is really amateurish or, worse, biased. RCP averages don't include your poll, which suggests RCP knows the quality of PPP's polls are not up to snuff. Seriously, why Gingrich? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Yalebulldog

What are the demographics of the undecideds? Do they heavily approve or disapprove of the President?

Bill Mitchell

OMG, are you serious PPP? Perry trails Obama by 11? God you people are the most partisan joke of a "polling firm" on Earth. What was your demographic split, 80% Democrat?

CBO just said that we will have =9% unemployment through 2012. If Obama can win with THAT he does have magical powers.

No, whatever Republican gets nominated destroys Obama in the General.

Bill Mitchell

I am an Executive Recruiter. I talk to hundreds of business people every week. NO ONE and I mean NOT A SINGLE PERSON supports Obama's re-election, and this includes many who voted for him last time.

Rasmussen, an accurate pollster (unlike yourselves), has a "Generic Republican" beating Obama by 8, and you have the #1 Republican Contender losing to him by 11? Joke.

Bill Mitchell

Apparently the author rejects all comments which disagree with his flawed point of view. Typical.

Obama 2012

I'm hopeful that this Tea Party loon Rick Perry ends up as the GOP nominee. I feel confident that the more the average American learns about him... and the more they realize that the Republican Party caused our current economic turmoil and are the ones standing in the way of creating jobs... that Obama will beat Perry by a significant margin.

John Yoder

Just curious why you polled registered voters and not likely voters. I know there are several schools of thought on this. Would also like to see your sample break-down by political party or ideology. I tend to dismiss as biased any poll that does not publish the sample break-down right up front. If I missed the sample description somewhere, please point me to it. If you have not published it please consider doing so.

Craig

People's Partisan Polling. Reminds me of the "true" news stories and polls from PRAVDA. Nice try PPP. We can't swallow this swill. Be a good liberal media concubine and keep showing the DNC a good time...

John

Guys shut up. Yes, your god Perry is unelectable. We all knew this before the media pushed him on you. He may be dominating the republican primary polls for now, but that doesn't mean independents and Democrats like him.

Romney and Paul are the only electable candidates, because independents are capable and are willing to vote for them. Polls, from your favortie, rasmussen, prove this.

Tom Jensen

The PDF linked to at the bottom of the post contains all the demographics of who was polled including party and ideology. It's impossible to do a reliable likely voters poll 14 months before an election because your average voter hasn't thought about whether they're going to turn out or not this far away.

Jeff

Who are you polling? I find it hard to believe that any of the leaders are losing to Obama now. What kind of sample did you use 60% Dem, 20% Rep, 20% Ind?

CITIZEN 6079 SMITH W

Gosh - so much hyperventilating about an old description that happens to be true.

A Few Famous Democrat Supporters Who Have Also Called Social Security a "Ponzi Scheme"

2007 -- Chris Matthews & Tim Russert
1999 -- Los Angeles Times editorial
1989 - The New York Times editorial

The first person to publicly coin the analogy between SocSec and Ponzi was.... liberal economist and Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson... in 1967.

CITIZEN 6079 SMITH W

"The PDF linked to at the bottom of the post contains all the demographics of who was polled including party and ideology."

Not that I can see. What page gives the numbers polled, how polled, when polled, and the split between Registered voters?

John Yoder

Found it, thanks!
I noticed that the party affiliation seems way off as compared to the latest Gallup data (http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx). Did you adjust for what appears to be a significant oversampling of Democrats and to a lesser degree Republicans. Your Independent numbers seem very low also.

Steve

To be perfectly honest, I don't think Rick Perry is unelectable. However, he's being honed by these debates of late. Writing off a sitting governor of a state as large as Texas is simply not good politics. I believe that Perry will be a formidable opponent to Barack Obama should he be nominated. Candidates who are truly unelectable are ones like Bachmann and Paul.

Just a question to PPP, I find it interesting that you asked the question regarding evolution. However, you didn't give people the opportunity to comment on Creationism. Other polling firms (Gallup comes to mind) have found that a solid majority of Americans believe God either created the world as is or guided the process so there is a lot of overlap. Perhaps a question to include for future surveys?

TallDave

41D/34R/25I? After the GOP took the House in the biggest wave since the 1940s? Riiiiiight. The LVs are currently about +5 GOP, so this poll actually has Perry beating Obama.

(BTW if "electable" means a guy who pals around with terrorists, buys his home in a crooked deal with a convicted political fixer, and has a racist preacher, I'm not sure Perry has much to worry about).

Dustin Ingalls

"Rasmussen, an accurate pollster (unlike yourselves), has a "Generic Republican" beating Obama by 8, and you have the #1 Republican Contender losing to him by 11? Joke."

We've often had Obama trailing a generic Republican in our national polling for Daily Kos, but the Republicans won't be nominating an ideal generic candidate. Rather, they'll be nominating a real person with flaws. And just because Perry is the top Republican doesn't mean he's the most electable to non-Republican voters. Often what it takes to win a primary makes it harder to win a general, and that's particularly true in the GOP since the advent of the Tea Party.

"RCP averages don't include your poll"

Actually, they do.

Dapower

Typical liberal pollsters bashing Perry and pushing Romney as the "strongest" one against Obama! This is sooooo transparent....can we all agree that Libs are scared SH**LESS about Perry running against Obama?!! LMAO!!!

sunny black

This poll couldn't be accurate. If the margin was 53-46 back in '08, I promise you, whomever the Republican candidate is and whatever their perceived faults, Obama's advantage is less than 7%.

Here in 2011 he simply will NOT get the same level of support that he found in 2008. Any poll that says a GOP candidate is polling worse than McCain in 2008 is employing some wishful thinking.

Brian

Perry is Alan Keyes 2.0. Sounds nice to Democrats!

I live in the northeast where Obama will win by large margins if Perry is the R on the ticket. Perry will kill the Republicans in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida.

The tea baggers aren't going to support a Mormon on their super Tuesday. The GOP wants Bush 2.0 (Keyes 2.0) bring it on folks.

She Sene

"National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President. This suggests that Reagan is not the strongest G.O.P. choice for the November election and that he clearly faces an uphill battle"

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,921912,00.html#ixzz1XrBqheZW

The only poll that matters is in the election booth

D

41% Democrats polled, guys? This one doesn't even pass the smell test for accuracy. I'll bet it's good for business though.

Congrats. You've proven that if the election is held only in blue states, Obama wins. Too bad 2012 is going to be held in ALL the states, not just the ones that look like New York or California.

The Interesting Times

Interesting...Eliminating Social Security doesn't poll well with anyone, but it does best within the 18-29 demographic group. (Makes sense, since these people are the ones least likely to ever get back anything they're paying into the system today.)

Your numbers on belief in evolution seem to be at odds with a lot of other pollsters. Care to speculate as to why this is the case? (My own personal suspicion is that question wording plays an much bigger-than-normal role in this one.)

Steve

I think people are being too hard on PPP in this thread. While the Perry gap gives me a little pause as do the high unfavorable compared to other surveys, also bear in mind that these are registered - not likely - voters. While I'm aware this is a partisan outfit (and I am generally very skeptical of polling outfits that identify either on the left or the right), I do have the most respect for PPP of any of the partisan outfits. I don't always like what I see in their polls but that doesn't mean that I just dismiss it. I think they try to be more balanced than most of the other (right and left) partisan pollsters.

realnrh

Some retarded wingnut site probably linked to this poll and sent their followers to come cry. Half the commenters haven't been paying attention to polling other than to cry about polls they don't like, or they'd know how well PPP has performed (and what a crapfest Rasmussen is). The usual collection of Paultards sniveling about how their unelectable Cranky Old Twit isn't being treated seriously make their appearance. And then the right-wing loonies round out with a collection of self-delusional 'Perry is unbeatable!' bandwagoners who resemble very strongly a mirror image of the "I can't understand how Nixon won - Nobody I know voted for him!" crowd.

A solid, reasonable job as usual by PPP, and the usual reality-disconnected surge of sobbing by echo-chamber inhabitants of Foxtopia in the comments.

Norm

"RCP averages don't include your poll, which suggests RCP knows the quality of PPP's polls are not up to snuff."

Jim R. Baumgartner

Actually, you're wrong. RCP did indeed include this poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Kickbass

1. Anyone who says the SS is a Ponzi scheme doesn't have a clue: http://www.ssa.gov/history/ponzi.htm
2. PPP is comparing this result to their own polling so a change in results is happening with the same methodology so it is very likely a significant result.
3. 47% of retired women rely on SS for their primary source of income (meaning over 50% of their monthly income. Nearly half of all women work in low-paying jobs without retirement plans or 401(k)s.
4. Other polling shows that Perry is very much out of step with the Americans on SS: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/09/rick-perry-social-security-poll-monstrous-lie-/1
---
How many starving and/or homeless seniors would it take for the dopes who think getting rid of SS is a good idea to realize that they have made a really dumb mistake? I hope we don't find out.

The Interesting Times

You know, if you think anyone is "oversampled" in a PPP poll, the extensive crosstabs they provide make it possible to actually recalculate your own results with any desired partisan breakdown.

George

"OMG, are you serious PPP? Perry trails Obama by 11? God you people are the most partisan joke of a "polling firm" on Earth. What was your demographic split, 80% Democrat?

CBO just said that we will have =9% unemployment through 2012. If Obama can win with THAT he does have magical powers.

No, whatever Republican gets nominated destroys Obama in the General."

Dont laugh! The numbers are for elections if they were held today. Furthermore, whatever the economy some states will never vote GOP and some will never vote Dem. About fifteen states are competitive. Reagan will not win in CA or IL today although both of them are essentially his home states. Carter wont win Texas or Georgia. That is the reality.

Perry probably will win against Obama if he gives a solution to social security: Create jobs and keep them in this country! That is the only politically palatable solution to SS.

And by the way, get your facts straight. PPP has been the most accurate pollster during the past three years and they were the first ones to call the MA special and the DE primary right..and if PPP shows Obama ahead of Perry by six or so points in October 2012, Obama will win whatever the economy!

Aneesh

Remember Sharon Angle in the Nevada race. Yeah, she said that and guess what happened: Harry Reid Won!

Keep on saying stupid stuff Perry, just keep on going. I am hoping for another 1964.

Security Jobs

The main movement has come with Democratic voters. On the previous poll Obama had only a 68 point lead with the party base at 81-13 but now it's 80 points at 89-9. We know there are a lot of Democratic voters disenchanted with Obama right now but if the GOP puts forward someone like Perry who's willing to go after one of the Holy Grails of the party's orthodoxy like Social Security it might scare those voters back into the fold.

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