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August 25, 2011


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Ron Paul or Mike Bloomberg are the most likely 3rd party candidates in the realm of possibility. Fox News will make sure Palin and Trump dont run 3rd party.


Paul or bust. Literally.

Grim Ego

Really interesting stuff. One thing to keep in mind is that these are incredibly early, speculative numbers. Any independent/third party candidate who started polling in the double digits would be a serious contender, and would definitely have the opportunity to get into debates and make their case. It could be a pretty interesting election for once.

I Am Iron Man

It would be sweet justice if a 3rd party candidate cost the Republicans 2012 (just like Nader cost Gore 2000.)

Steve M.

Unfortunately, putting Romney into this scenario as the hypothetical GOP nominee is as meaningless now as putting in Pawlenty or Huckabee. Please rerun this poll soon with Rick Perry -- otherwise it doersnt tell us much.

Dangerous Dreamer

We hear this every election season when the Dem is in trouble. I doubt there will be a third party challenge because its getting too late in the game to organize and fund a run.


@Al Pippin:I dont question the numbers you have cited as evidence that Obamas base isnt as solid as PPPs poll shows.I just question your interpretation.Both numbers could be right. How? Well, the democratic base is not so enamoured by President Obama anymore, but they are unified in their fear of a right wing republican in the White House.It cant get worse? Democrats certainly think otherwise and will vote accordingly and in big numbers.Fear is a huge motivator! And Republicans are really doing a heck of a job, playing into democrats (and independents) fears!

Al Pippin

Despite their grumbling, Democrats remain pretty united behind Obama... Oh Really?RCP currently has Obamas average approval rating index at -7.3%; representing a 10%+ drop from 5/24/11.What I find rather infomative about the Polls done by Rasmussen and AP-GFK is that they include in their polling of Obama, Strongly approve / disapprove of his job performance. In doing so it provides a reasonable measure of enthusiasm, thus voter turnout. In any event, AP-GFK (on 8/22/11) had those numbers at 19%-36% (-17%); representing a 24% drop from 5/9/11, when it was 32%-25% (+7). Rasmussens numbers (on 8/25/11)were even worse at 21%-45% (-24); representing a 14% drop from 5/25/11, when they were 25%-35% (-10). Lets face it Dustin, things arent getting any better for Obama - nor the rest of America. The CBO is now projecting the unemployment rate to remain above 8.5% through 2012. As such, Obamas approval numbers will undoubtedly continue to fall - and quite significantly so at that. Say low 30(s)% by election day.As such, Obama will most definitely lose his bid for re-election. And will do so by a record or near record margin; irrespective of who his GOP opponent ultimately is.And you say?

The Globalizer

I wouldn't mind seeing some similar polling with Perry in lieu of Romney, particularly the centrist or libertarian 3rd party matchups (Paul, Huntsman, etc.)

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