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August 03, 2011


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Dustin Ingalls

I was with you, Anon, until your predictions. Those are way out of left field. If a Republican wins the White House, itll be by the skin of his or her teeth, even in a down economy. There are so many states the GOP has to win back where the president is still at least tied with Romney if not ahead, and against anyone else, itd be 300+ for him if the election were today. And there isnt much room for these guys to improve their image and, therefore, their horserace numbers. If Pawlenty and Huntsman stick around, theyre the only ones whore blank enough slates to shape how voters see them. The others are already too well known (plus Perry has little positive upside and a lot of potential negatives).


Agree its not 2010 anymore, and GOP govs especially have overreached. Id submit, however, that the popular Democrats elected in 2010 were generally centrists and often exceptional and likeable candidates (Hickenlooper, Kitzhaber, Abercrombie especially).The big gulf for the GOP is their right-wing governors in lean-D states. Martinez is doing a great job threading the needle (from an admittedly low post-Richardson baseline) but the rest are all overreaching beyond their electoral mandates. I tip my hat to the midwestern govs trying to roll back some of the union influence but Im not sure the region is ready for that conversation in the midst of a very difficult job market.All in all, the electorate is probably a bit lean-R overall due to the Obama effect and national issues, but it increasingly looks like the Dems will be playing a lot of defense in Senate contests (and the presidency).Handicapping it today, Id say a moderate GOP victory for president (mid-300s EVs), +5 GOP in the Senate, and a push in the House (some of the wave members wash back out, but GOP picks up on redistricting/reallocation).

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