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August 30, 2011

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The Interesting Times

Heres one potentially useful tidbit of information about South Carolina:Since 1976, when the Republican Party established its current primary system, the South Carolina Republican primary has selected the eventual nominee 83% of the time. Furthermore, the Republican primary in this state has picked the next President 50% of the time.For comparison, the other early states track records are as follows:New Hampshire: 67% success rate for picking the nominee, 33% success rate for picking the next PresidentNevada: 50% success rate for picking the nominee, 33% for picking the next PresidentIowa: 50% success rate for picking the nominee, 17% for picking the next PresidentOn the rare occasions when Iowa caucuses and South Carolina primary both selected the same candidate, that candidate has been the partys eventual nominee 100% of the time. That nominee became the next President 50% of the time. However, this agreement between Iowa and South Carolina has only happened twice, so were not exactly talking about a statistically significant indicator here.

The Interesting Times

I suppose the Democratic Party could attempt to make the election about evolution and global warming, instead of issues like the economy that Americans actually care about. Its their party.I just doubt it will be a winning strategy.See also Gallup polling on the number of Americans who believe in evolution. Creationism may be a fringe position in academia, but not in the public at large.

Anonymous

I wonder if Perry will be the flavor of the month like Bachmann was and then fade. Polls I have seen show that the citizens of Texas are not too fond of him as Governor. Once his record is more thoroughly vetted will he fall?

Anonymous

Godspeed you, Rick Perry. I cant think of anyone better for Obama to run against than a guy who calls Social Security a ponzi scheme and thinks Medicare is unconstitutional. Youd have to try really hard to hand the elderly vote to Obama, but hes determined to do it.

Anonymous

Why do you make PPP look foolish by asking those questions at the end? Nate Silver was on saying that it hurts PPPs credibility and possibly the viability of the polling results.

I Am Iron Man

And Ill continue to make fun of Rick Perry! It may not hurt him with the ignorant folks that make up the base of the GOP but Im confident it will hurt him when he makes it to the general election (which at this point looks increasingly like a forgone conclusion... although I realize its really too early to jump to that...)

Mark B.

Thanks for a very interesting poll. I notice Ron Paul leads Jon Huntsman with moderates, 9-7.Being that Huntsmans candidacy for the Republican continues to be as laughable as ever it was, I sometimes wonder if hell end up running for the Americans Elect ticket. The proprietors of that party have said they want a centrist who works across the aisle.

Anonymous

His anti-science record may help him with Republicans, but itll probably do more harm than good in the general.Well, I hope it will.

Dustin Ingalls

PPP asked voters the importance of the nominee being from the South, and three-quarters said that was not an important factor. But among the 9% who said it was very important, 71% believe Obama was not born in the U.S., and 51% of the 15% who say the candidate’s Southernness is somewhat important deny Obama’s citizenship. The rest are split 41-39 in taking Obama at his word, as John Boehner put it.

Draw conclusions as you will.

bpfish

Were there really that many typos in your actual poll question?

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