Public Policy Polling

Iowa Miscellaneous

Iowans have cut their governor a little more slack since we last polled the state three months ago. 41% approve and 44% disapprove of Terry Branstad’s performance, up from 39-47. But that makes him 29th out of 42 sitting governors we've polled, and voters still would only narrowly prefer him to the Democrat he ousted from office last fall, Chet Culver.

In a hypothetical do-over, Branstad would prevail, 48-44, when he actually won by a 53-43 margin. The problem for Culver is that Branstad wins over twice as many Democrats (a huge 18%) as he won last fall. On top of that, even though the third of voters who say they are independents disapprove, 36-46, they prefer Branstad to Culver, 46-41. That is down, however, from the 51-41 margin reported by exit polls.

Wisconsin Miscellaneous

Though a previous release showed voters were slightly happy with the results of the recent Wisconsin recall elections, that was because Republicans were more happy that they did not lose control of the Senate than Democrats were unhappy that they did not gain a third seat. By a one-point margin (48-47), Wisconsinites would actually prefer that Democrats control that body. Most of that is because Democrats have a three-point identification advantage in the state, as Republicans seem to now be a tad more enthusiastic about maintaining their majority than Democrats are wanting their party in charge, and independents split 43-42 for the GOP.

Wisconsin is not particularly eager to see same-sex marriage made legal. Only 39% want that, and half do not. But when voters are given three options, including civil unions, two-thirds want gay couples to at least have the same legal rights as married couples, if not the name. That includes 81% of Democrats, 71% of independents, and even 49% of Republicans.

Perry debuts in lead in OH primary, Tressel tops for Sen. bid?

Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans should probably not be terribly proud that their top pick for next year’s U.S. Senate nomination is a disgraced football coach.  It is the still-popular Jim Tressel, and he is more than twice as well-known as the other three possible contenders, but it is at best a sign that no one is paying attention to the burgeoning race yet, and at worst a sign that there is little enthusiasm for the real candidates.

Tressel is almost certain not to run for office, but he leads with 23% over Josh Mandel’s 17%, Jim Jordan’s 13%, and Kevin Coughlin’s 5%, with 43% undecided.  Without Tressel, Mandel tops Jordan and Coughlin, 27-16-8, and beats Coughlin in a two-way, 31-12.  Mandel is the establishment’s pick, but with 57% undecided in the latter matchup, anything could happen.

Obama stronger vs. Romney with 3rd-party bids

Raleigh, N.C. – Some have suggested that with an unpopular president with a dissatisfied base and weak economy, and with a Republican nominee who either cannot win the middle or is not conservative enough for the right, there is room for a strong third-party bid for the first time in at least 16 years.  But evidently the chances of defection by GOP-inclined voters are stronger than cracks in the Democrats’ armor, according to PPP’s latest national poll.  Despite their grumbling, Democrats remain united behind Obama, and six of the seven possible independents PPP tested against him and his strongest GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, would hurt Romney more than the president.
Head-to-head, Romney and Obama are tied at 45% in the national popular vote, per Tuesday’s release.  Against New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the major-party candidates are knotted at 42%, with Bloomberg at 10%.  With a challenge from his left by either Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders or perpetual Democratic thorn Ralph Nader, Obama would remain at 45%, with Romney falling to 41% and Nader getting 7% and Sanders only 5%.  If Jon Huntsman takes his iconoclasm to the general, he would earn 7%, with Obama prevailing, 46-40.  Ron Paul would get a solid 15%, with Romney falling to 33% and Obama still at 45%.  Donald Trump would pull 18% to Romney’s 30% and Obama’s 46%.  But Romney’s biggest obstacle could come from Sarah Palin, who would get 21% to his 26%, with Obama jumping to 47%.

Third-party bids would help Obama

Some have suggested that with an unpopular president who's got a somewhat dissatisfied base and suffers from a weak economy, and with a Republican nominee who inevitably will either struggle with the middle or who is not conservative enough for the right, there is room for a strong third-party bid for the first time in at least 16 years. But we took a look at seven possible independent candidates against Obama and his strongest GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, and found that the chances of defection by GOP-inclined voters are stronger than are cracks in the Democrats’ armor. Despite their grumbling, Democrats remain pretty united behind Obama, and six of the seven possible independent candidates would hurt Romney more than the president.
Head-to-head, Romney and Obama are tied at 45% in the national popular vote, per Tuesday’s release. Against Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the major-party candidates are still knotted at 42%, with Bloomberg at 10%. Faced with a well-known moderate who leans more left these days, this is the only instance in which Romney is able to hold more of his base than the president does of his (82% versus 78%). But Obama treads water by holding a six-point lead with independents, 13% of whom go to Bloomberg.

Mandel leading for OH Sen. nomination, Perry for Pres.

The Republican race for the right to face off with Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown next fall seems to lean strongly State Treasurer Josh Mandel's way, based on our new poll and on the latest developments in the race. Polled before Rep. Jim Jordan declined a bid and instead endorsed Mandel, Mandel tops Jordan and former State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 27-16-8, and beats Coughlin in what will now likely be a two-way race, 31-12.

Since so few voters are familiar with the candidates so far, 57% are undecided. Coughlin obviously has an opportunity, but if he stays in the race, he'll have to cast himself as a Tea-Party, anti-establishment conservative and make up a lot of ground with the furthest right voters, who make up a 41% plurality of this electorate.

Obama leads Romney by only 5 in WI but stronger in IA

Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP last polled Wisconsin in May, Barack Obama’s approval rating in the state has dove 14 points on the margin, from 52% approving and 44% disapproving to 44-51.  Of the 45 states in which PPP has measured the president’s approval rating, only 18 see him worse than Wisconsin.  Three months ago, Obama led Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney in Wisconsin by 12 points, 51-39, just a little tighter than his 14-point victory over John McCain three years ago.  But the president’s margin over Romney is now only 47-42.

Against the other four Republicans tested, the president is still in solid shape, leading Rick Perry, 50-40; Michele Bachmann, 51-39; Sarah Palin, 52-40; and Herman Cain, 50-36.  By this measure, even Cain matches or exceeds McCain’s performance, but poll respondents report voting for Obama by only 10 points, so in this slightly less-favorable-than-2008 electorate, only Romney and Perry match McCain.

Perry takes huge lead in national GOP primary

Raleigh, N.C. – Before Rick Perry’s sudden emergence, there had been several presidential candidates this year who momentarily captured the imagination of the right wing—first Donald Trump in March, then Herman Cain in June, then Michele Bachmann in July.  But not even Trump so quickly and decisively turned that into an actual lead in a PPP national poll of Republican primary voters.

Perry gets a full third of the GOP’s support, 13 points ahead of Mitt Romney’s 20% and Bachmann’s 16%.  Everyone else has really settled into the background, with Newt Gingrich at 8%, Herman Cain and Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.  Bachmann is down five points from a lead last month; Romney holds his ground, and Perry is up 21 points.  If Sarah Palin jumps into the race, it would knock Bachmann to fourth at 10% behind Perry’s 27%, Romney’s 17%, and Palin’s 13%.

Kentucky/South Carolina Question Suggestions

Kentucky and South Carolina won our vote on where to poll this week. We'll obviously poll the Presidential race in both states, Senate and Governor approval ratings, and the Governor's race in Kentucky. Beyond those things what questions would you like to see us ask in those states?

Perry leads nationally

In PPP's first national poll since Rick Perry's official entry into the Presidential race he's jumped out to a double digit advantage. Perry's at 33% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Michele Bachmann, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 6% for Herman Cain and Ron Paul, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 3% for Jon Huntsman.

Conservative voters have been looking for a candidate that they can rally around and Perry's filling that role. Romney continues to lead with the small portion of voters describing themselves as moderates at 27% to 20% for Bachmann and 15% for Perry. But Perry gets stronger and stronger as you move across the ideological spectrum. With 'somewhat conservative' voters Perry leads by 15 points with 38% to Romney's 23% and Bachmann's 11%. And with 'very conservative' voters the advantage expands to 22 points with him at 40% to 18% for Bachmann and 14% for Romney.