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August 11, 2011

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Anonymous

The Original Donald:He probably would have put down the children book and taken care of business

The Original Donald

Iron Man, I SHUDDER to think what Al Gore would have done on 9-11

sportsman885

Ranjit,A couple things...1. Black voters only turned out 1% or so higher in 2008 than they did in 2004. Its a presidential year and they will turnout as often as they typically do.2. The same thing with young voters. 1% greater turnout in 2008 than in 2004.And he can afford to lose some of those voters since the 18 - 24 y/o voters are now four years older. And four years worth of new voters will enter the fold. Like the 2008 group, they will be more liberal and more diverse than their counterparts that are four years older.In addition PPP has young voters making up only 10% of this polls sample, so its not like these results are skewing toward young voters.3. You cannot compare Scott Browns election, or off year and mid term elections or recall elections to Presidential elections. The turnout is always on another level compared to all those other races. And the more voters that participate, the more Democratic-leaning those people usually are.Democratic-leaning voters are typically tougher to turnout, which is why Democrats dont fare as well in mid term or off year electinos.

samhudson3

So, holding the Dem Convention in Charlotte was a bit of crystal ball gazing? I think the Obama team is several steps ahead. This was always going to be a close election...

Ranjit

I am iron man,An incumbent below 50% is supposed to be good? All these polls are assuming that, African Americans, students and university liberal crowds are going to turn up ! Right now, with 15.9% unemployment in African American community and lot of students returning to the basement of their parents, the turn out will not be good like 2008 ! We saw that in Scott Brown election, governorship in Virginia & New Jersey,2010 elections and the latest wisconsin elections(milwaukee city precincts especially) !Meanwhile, conservatives and independents are voting in huge numbers in every election from 2008 ! You do the math and you will see probable outcome of Virginia and North Carolina !

I Am Iron Man

As a Virginian its quite interesting to see NC & VA turning into true swing states. Obama could possibly win in 2012 with VA & NC in his column while losing the traditional swing states like Pennsylvania & Florida. Its exciting in a way because it means that I can have a more direct influence on the outcome of the election.On the other hand; I think the electoral college system is terrible and I would definitely approve of the US switching to a national popular vote for President (and not just because it would have saved us from George W. Bush.)

Texas Aggie

What would Gore have done on 9/11? If Gore had been president, the terrorists would have been thwarted because he would have taken an interest in the CIA report saying that al Qaeda was planning an attack on the US. So 9/11 would have been just another day and there would have been no need to do anything special.

Ranjit

Sportsman885,I agree with your analysis ! But when an incumbent is having such disapproval numbers, always it helps the opposing candidate ! Moreover, when that enthusiasm goes down, that can amount to easy 2 % or 3% swing! The student, who makes that phone call or that student standing in the street corner trying to register new voters and so on ! Remember that, lost time Obama won North Carolina by 10,000 votes ! I attribute that, to the triangle area and the students enthusiasm ! When things are going bad, people just dont turn up ! Obama tried so hard going to BET for the midterm elections and other election and they did not turn up ! I just have a gut feeling that, African American numbers will be 2 or 3% lower than 2008 ! That will be a huge swing !North carolina will go back to Bush numbers which should be around a difference of 7% to 11 % win for republican candidate !

I Am Iron Man

Ranjit - You are forgetting the terror of the potential GOP candidate. Admittedly if its Romney this may not be as strong - but if someone like Michele Bachmann or Rick Perry is the GOP nominee - there will be no problems getting liberals out to vote regardless of what they feel about Obama. Presidential years always bring out more voters which is good for Democrats.~~~The Original Donald - Theres a good chance 9/11 wouldnt have happened if Al Gore were President. Gore would have continued with Clintons foreign policy of focusing resources on Al Qaeda. Read what Dick Clark said about the Bush admin. ignoring the Al Qaeda threat.Also; Im betting one thing Al Gore wouldnt have done in response to 9/11 is attack a country that had nothing to do with it (Iraq.) If Gore had taken over for Clinton in 2001 we wouldnt have most of the problems we have today. Consider this list: If Al Gore Had Been President.

JPNewJersey

ll. In 2008, the turnout was 42 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican and 27 percent independent. The PPP poll’s sample is of 48 percent Democratic, 35 percent Republican and 18 percent independent. PPP’s poll probably overestimates Democratic turnout and underestimates the independents, which have broken against Obama in every national poll.

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