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August 16, 2011


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Could you comment on Ron Pauls numbers against Obama in the general election match-up in VT? Thank you.


Ahem, if you will look at the polling data from 2008 (Obama vs. McCain), there were only 5 commissioned polls for this state. The last one, released 10/27/08, from R2000, showed Obama with +21 (57 to 36). R2000 grossly underestimated Obamas win here. Rasmussen from 10/10/2008 had it at Obama +24 (60 to 36), still way under his historic +37 margin.ARG from 09/23 hard Obama at +18 (56 to 38), 19 spread points under reality.The earlier R2000 from 09/15 had Obama at +19.Only SUSA from 9 months before, released on 03/06, pretty much pegged Obamas win in the Granite State.Facit: Obama vastly outperformed the polls in VT in 2008. So, in light of this economy, I would say +20 over Romney, +28 over Bachmann, +29 over Perry, +32 over Cain and +34 over Palin sure looks like blowout territory to me.Actually, the poll proves that Obama is still holding VT as a firewall state. Even on his worst day he will still have a margin that is at least 8 points better than Kerry in 2004.I predict he will easily be at +30 come election day 2012.


Heavily white states are more susceptible to this phenomenon than others. Thats because Obamas approval amongst whites has dropped dramatically. But as youve often pointed out, the drop in his popularity doesnt occur equally in every state.


Generally, undecideds break for the challenger, so it may be much closer in VT than you make it seem.


But the numbers there are indicative of the extent to which Obamas down everywhere.I believe this is what they call begging the question. That is, this is what your comment sets out to prove; doesnt; and then concludes by repeating it.

Dustin Ingalls

I`d like to see Paul and Cain included.We already include Cain.


R2000 grossly underestimated Obamas win here.They also probably grossly fabricated the numbers.


If you drop Sarah Palin from your polls at the end of the month, who will you include in your General Election polls ?Perry, Romney, Bachmann and ...Paul ?Cain ?Gingrich ?Will you let us vote ?I`d like to see Paul and Cain included.

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