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August 09, 2011


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Im suspicious about the VP questions reliability. It strikes me as implausible that a ticket adding a fairly popular homestate politician would cause it to lose support in that state. Now, you could make an argument that the politicians abandoment might cause the ticket to lose support. But that doesnt seem to jive with recent history, where VP candidates seem mostly to have a (usually small) positive effect on their home state. My guess is that most of the more likelies and less likelies are partisan voters who werent going to change their vote anywhere. However, some of the no difference are probably low information voters who dont think theyll be influenced on such a trivial issue, but probably will in the end. For instance, I bet youd get overwhelming no difference for Would you be more likely to vote for the taller candidate? despite there being evidence that taller candidates do better.


The key difference for Sandoval is that unlike the Midwestern governors of 2010, he didnt come into office with a raving horde of radical right-wing Republicans in control of the state legislature. He doesnt get his face on a giant stack of unthinking cuts to state government and doesnt make himself the Nevada poster child for union-busting, because any proposals to that effect never reach his desk.Its the states where Republicans have taken full control that voters are discovering how utterly revolting Republican policies are, because those policies are making it into law. Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Maine and New Hampshire are all experiencing severe cases of buyers remorse (or to be more accurate,cases of I wouldve voted last year if Id thought it would be THIS bad). In all those cases, Republicans either control everything, or have a large enough majority in the state legislature to override vetoes, and in all those states the new Republican leadership is profoundly unpopular thanks to their radical agenda and complete disregard for precedent.Ironically, they may very well have made themselves unpopular enough to ensure that they get replaced in the very next round of elections, and everything theyve done gets reversed immediately. If theyd taken more time and pushed their agenda out more slowly and made some pretense of thinking about it, they might not have engendered such intense opposition and been able to make some of it stick. As it is, though, most of those states look likely to swing Democratic in the next round.


I still believe the Union helped to get Reid elected. No one in their right mind would want him in his position causing trouble for the entire country the way he does.


Too bad you didnt ask about sports teams preferences. Thats often my favorite part of your poll, and Nevada is such an enigma regarding pro sports (who do they root for?).

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