Public Policy Polling

Beshear set to romp, helping Dems down-ballot

Raleigh, N.C. – Steve Beshear is tied with Tennessee’s Bill Haslam for the fourth most popular governor on which PPP has polled, and he is headed for a re-election romp this fall.  Beshear leads Republican David Williams and independent Gatewood Galbraith by a 55-28-10 margin.  The last time PPP polled the race was just before last fall’s election, and then, Beshear was up only 44-35 on Williams, with Galbraith not polled. Beshear has a 57-30 approval margin, up from 48-34 last October.

The differences over the last ten months are many.  For one, Republican turnout seems a little depressed compared to last fall, which is to be expected after a strong showing by conservatives in the midterm.  But Beshear is also up from 66% to 78% of Democrats, who make up 55% of the electorate, and from 15% to 19% of the GOP, with Williams down a corresponding amount.  Williams has also declined from 16% to 8% with Democrats, and remains with only a quarter of independents.

Perry dominates in South Carolina

Raleigh, N.C. – If there was any question that Rick Perry is the new Republican presidential frontrunner before now, PPP’s latest poll of South Carolina confirms it.  A week ago, PPP showed Perry jumping to a narrow lead in first-caucus Iowa.  Now, he has a double-digit lead in what will likely be the third-voting state. 

Perry tops with 36% to Mitt Romney’s 16%, Michele Bachmann’s 13%, Herman Cain’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s 8%, Ron Paul’s 5%, Rick Santorum’s 4%, and Jon Huntsman’s 2%.  This is a sea change from when PPP last polled the race in June, with Perry not included.  Romney led with 30% to Cain’s and Gingrich’s 15%, Bachmann’s 13%, and Paul’s 10%.  If Sarah Palin joins the fray, it has no impact on Perry’s dominance but a lot on Bachmann’s standing.  Palin would place third at 10% behind Perry still at 36%, Romney at 13%, followed by Cain’s 9%, and Bachmann and Gingrich tied at 7%.

Perry would also dominate if the race came down to the top three, with half the vote to Romney’s quarter and Bachmann’s 16%.  Romney would narrowly beat Bachmann, 45-40, while Perry would crush either, 59-28 over Romney and 60-23 over Bachmann.

Perry up big in South Carolina

There might not be a state that better symbolizes the fundamental shift that's occurred in the Republican Presidential race over the last few months than South Carolina. When PPP last polled there in early June, Mitt Romney led everyone in the field by at least 15 points. But now with Rick Perry's entry Romney has lost almost half of his support. That leaves Perry with a 20 point lead- he's at 36% to 16% for Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Voters on the far right side of the Republican spectrum have been dying for a candidate they can call their own and Perry is filling that void. With folks describing themselves as 'very conservative,' which is the largest segment of the GOP electorate in South Carolina, Perry's at 44% to 14% for Bachmann, with Romney mired in single digits at 9%.

That furthest right group of voters has never been all that friendly to Romney though. What has to be a greater sign of concern for him is that with those labeling themselves as only 'somewhat conservative' he still trails Perry 37-19 with Bachmann at 11% and Cain at 10%. When Romney's primary threat was Bachmann he was still winning this group of voters. But Perry seems to be filling a void for voters looking for someone more conservative than Romney and more credible than Bachmann and if he can sustain his lead with that segment of voters he's going to be tough to topple.

Beshear up big, could have down ballot implications

It doesn't look like there's going to be much to see in the Kentucky Governor's race this year. Incumbent Steve Beshear leads by 27 points right now with 55% to 28% for Republican David Williams and 10% Gatewood Galbraith.

More than anything else this is because Williams is one of the worst candidates a party's put forth in a plausibly competitive Gubernatorial race in recent memory. Only 21% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 54% who view him negatively. Even with Republicans he's barely seen positively by a 41/29 margin and with Democrats (9/70) and independents (16/55) there are virtually no voters with a favorable view.

Even if the GOP had a really strong candidate this might be an uphill battle though. Beshear has a 57% approval rating, with only 30% of voters giving him bad marks. Out of 42 sitting Governors PPP's polled on those numbers put Beshear in a tie for the 4th most popular with Tennessee's Bill Haslam, behind only Dave Heineman of Nebraska, Mike Beebe of Arkansas, and John Hickenlooper of Colorado. Combine one of the most popular Governors in the country with one of the worst challengers imaginable and you get this blow out race.

Obama keeps hitting record lows

In our national polling for Daily Kos Barack Obama has hit a record low approval rating 3 weeks in a row now. He's gone from 43/53 to 42/53 to now 42/54 in our poll this week.

What might be most noteworthy is this week's poll is how bad Obama's numbers are with a few key and usually dependable Democratic constituencies. He's under water in union households at 44/47. He's also under water with voters under 30 at 45/48. The Northeast tends to a pretty dependable region for Democrats but Obama's under water there at 47/49. Obama's usually been able to hold his ground with female voters but he's under water with them too at 45/49. And even with African Americans his approval rating's down to 76%, about as low as we've ever found it.

Poll vote time!

We're due for our monthly North Carolina poll this week and we'll do one other state poll. Your choices are:

WI bullish on Packers, hate Favre, want Dem-controlled Sen.

Raleigh, N.C. – Though a previous release showed voters were slightly happy with the results of the recent Wisconsin recall elections, that was because Republicans were more happy that they did not lose control of the Senate than Democrats were unhappy that they did not gain a third seat.  By a one-point margin (48-47), Wisconsinites would actually prefer that Democrats control that body.

Wisconsin is not particularly eager to see same-sex marriage made legal.  Only 39% want that, and half do not.  But when voters are given three options, including civil unions, two-thirds want gay couples to at least have the same legal rights as married couples, if not the name.  That includes 81% of Democrats, 71% of independents, and even 49% of Republicans.

Iowans up on gay marriage and Branstad

Raleigh, N.C. – Iowans have cut their governor a little more slack since PPP last polled the state three months ago.  41% approve and 44% disapprove of Terry Branstad’s performance, up from 39-47.  But that makes him 29^th out of 42 sitting governors on which PPP has polled, and voters still would only narrowly prefer him to the Democrat he ousted from office last fall, Chet Culver.  In a hypothetical do-over, Branstad would prevail, 48-44, when he actually won by a 53-43 margin.  The problem for Culver is that Branstad wins over twice as many Democrats (a huge 18%) as he won last fall.  On top of that, even though the third of voters who say they are independents disapprove, 36-46, they prefer Branstad to Culver, 46-41.  That is down, however, from the 51-41 margin reported by exit polls.

As the only Midwestern state where it is legal, Iowa is becoming increasingly favorable to same-sex marriage.  46% think it should be legal, and 45% illegal.  But when civil unions are included as an alternative, giving gay couples the same rights as marriage, 40% still prefer full marriage equality, 30% favor civil unions, and only 29% think there should be no recognition of these relationships at all.  When PPP asked the same question in April, the breakdown was 35-29-33.  Democrats, Republicans, and independents are all more in favor of both marriage and civil unions than before, but particularly Republicans, 14% of whom favor marriage and 36% civil unions now, versus 10-28 four months ago.  For Democrats, it is 63-23 versus 57-25, and for independents, 40-31 versus 35-36.

Ohio down on Boehner, blames Bush for economy

Raleigh, N.C. – The debt deal has caused Ohioans to sour on John Boehner.  When PPP polled the state in May, 37% both approved and disapproved of Boehner’s performance in office.  Now, only 34% approve, and his disapproval is up to 47%.  The main cause? A movement of 23 points in the wrong direction with independents, from 37-34 to 34-54.  He has also declined with the two major parties.  Now, more Republicans disapprove (16%) than Democrats approve (12%), the opposite of three months ago, when only 8% of Republicans disapproved and 14% of Democrats approved.  Boehner’s native state does still see him more positively than they do Nancy Pelosi, however, with 49% viewing Boehner more favorably and 34% Pelosi.  14% see them equally well.

Ohio Miscellaneous

The recent debt deal has caused Ohioans to sour on John Boehner. When PPP polled the state in May, 37% both approved and disapproved of Speaker Boehner’s performance in office. Now, only 34% approve, and his disapproval is up to 47%. The main cause? A movement of 23 points in the wrong direction with independents, from 37-34 to 34-54. He has also declined with the two major parties. Now, more Republicans disapprove (16%) than Democrats approve (12%), the opposite of three months ago, when only 8% of Republicans disapproved and 14% of Democrats approved.

Boehner’s native state does still see him more positively than they do Nancy Pelosi, however, with 49% viewing Boehner more favorably and 34% Pelosi. 14% see them equally well--almost all Democrats and independents. Though Republicans are not terribly high on Boehner in isolation, when matched with his vile foe, the former speaker, 90% of them prefer Boehner. Still only 62% of Democrats have a higher opinion of Pelosi, and independents split 52-25 Boehner's way, a huge switch from their overall feelings on him. Pelosi should probably steer clear of Ohio when her vulnerable members are running in Ohio House races next year.