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July 26, 2011


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Romney leads in MI by 5 points among likely voters. So Stabenow is in trouble.


Its very rare for an incumbent Senator to run behind the presidential nominee. Torricelli is one, but the exception proves the rule.That said, I dont think its possible to pass judgment on either race without a strict likely voter screen. Michigan is one state where that makes a fairly large difference, I think.


Hoekstra is not going to do well once people get educated on him. 18 year incumbent, voted for TARP and autobailout. Folks arent too keen on hand-picked establishment candidates. Pete already lost once because the voters rejected his insider status.

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