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June 01, 2011


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Going from a +8 D advantage in 2008 to a +10 D advantage in 2011 can easily be two factors - random sample variance, and previously-R union members belatedly realizing just how much their now-former party hates them.

Dustin Ingalls

+10 is not much different than 2008s +8 (according to exit polls), and its conceivable Democrats are more excited to vote now than then because of Kasich and company.


Given Browns track record (hes a very workers rights pro-labor Senator), he probably picked up quite a bit of support due to the collective bargaining tussle, so this result makes sense.


These PPP numbers are simply not credible. The partisan ID in this sample is D45, R35. History suggests there is no way the electorate in Ohio is currently D+10 or will be so in Nov. 2012 . The Quinnipiac survey taken around the same time tilts about 10 points more favorable to the GOP. I will give PPP some points for transparency; at least the partisan breakdown is published for those who bother to look past the top line.


Is anyone with a 39% approval rating really in good shape, I wonder.The best thing he has going for him, probably, is Kasichs current unpopularity.

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