More Bachmann Surge

We've never found her leading one of our state polls until now but Michele Bachmann's been on fire for the last two weeks and we find her at the top of the GOP field in both Oregon and Montana when Sarah Palin's not included. That's just more indication that if Palin ends up not running Bachmann will pretty instantaneously vault to co-front runner status with Mitt Romney, provided she can continue her current momentum.

In Oregon Bachmann gets 29% to 28% for Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman. In Montana she leads with 25% to 22% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 9% for Pawlenty,8% for Cain, and 4% for Huntsman.

In both states Bachmann's support is built on strong support from the far right. In Oregon moderates prefer Romney over her by a 39-15 margin and 'somewhat conservatives' ones favor him by a 29-22 margin as well. But with 'very conservative' voters, which constitute the largest share of the primary electorate at 44%, Bachmann leads 37-26 and that fuels her small overall lead. It's a similar story in Montana. Romney leads 21-13 with moderates and 26-22 with 'somewhat conservative' voters. But Bachmann is up 34-19 with 'very conservative' voters and with their constituting 39% of Republican voters that gives her the upper hand overall.

Obviously this is just two states but these numbers speak to the possibility for a two way race between Romney and Bachmann if Palin stays out of the field. They're 11 points clear of anyone else in Montana and 18 points ahead of anyone else in Oregon. Herman Cain's momentum appears to have stalled after a tremendous May and early June, Pawlenty and Huntsman still haven't gotten off the ground, Gingrich doesn't appear likely ever to return to his former level of support, and Paul, well, he's probably stuck around 10% in perpetuity.

Oregon provides a good example of why Romney should probably want Palin to run, in order to split up the vote of the far right. With Palin included there he gets 28% to 18% for Bachmann, 16% for Palin, 9% for Paul, 8% for Cain, 6% for Gingrich and Pawlenty, and 0% for Huntsman. Without Palin included Bachmann picks up 11 points with Romney staying right in place. There's an argument that Palin's entry is the best possible thing that could happen to Romney's prospects over the next few months.

In Montana Palin actually leads when she's included with 20% t0 18% for Bachmann, 17% for Romney, 9% for Gingrich and Paul, 8% for Cain, 7% for Pawlenty, and 4% for Huntsman. In both Montana and Oregon Palin has easily the best net favorability of any of the GOP contenders...she'll be a force if she runs...it's just a very big if.

Full results here

Comments

[Dustin Ingalls]

Seeing as how Cain and Pawlenty have dropped, does this mean Paul and Bachmann will be taking their spots?Not Paul, but Bachmann is the current flavor of the month.

[Ron Wagner]

I supported Romney in the last campaign, and did until the last few days. Bachman is truly charismantic. She is a female Reagan. Romney is seen as a stuffed shirt by many. He is a believer in man made global warming, defends Mass. healthcare plan and nuclear energy. Even Obama supports nuclear energy, as does Bachman. We have no way to store the nuclear waste unless Nevada allow us to, or is overruled.

[Anonymous]

Theres no way Bachmann will be the GOPs nominee. shed be a disaster I think even she knows that. shes either running in hopes of being the vp or to raise her profile for senate run.Shes a perfect foil for Romney though. he must be thrilled that shes his competition. As long as Rick Perry doesnt get in it looks like he has it sewed up already.

[JD]

Anon, How did Rick Perry lobby for the NAFTA superhighway when it doesnt exist?

[Anonymous]

Seeing as how Cain and Pawlenty have dropped, does this mean Paul and Bachmann will be taking their spots?

[Michael K]

Saying this as a life long GOPer: WE ARE DOOMED.

[Anonymous]

Rick Perry was a Democrat and 88 Al Gore campaign manager, switched to GOP, pushed NAFTA superhighway, STD vaccines for pre-teen girls, and doubled the Tx budget.Bachamnn was an IRS prosecutor and foster parent for profit, not to mention some very questionable failed state legisation.Cain is a former FED chairman who offers only plattitudes and cliche answers about getting smart people to tell him what to do.Romney is a moderate-to-left Republican who wrote the grandfather to Obamacare.Google Santorum.Saras not running.T-paw, Newt and Hunstman are a flash in the pan put together.That leaves Ron Paul, who has been right on every economic issue for the last 30 years.

[I Am Iron Man]

Don - I truly hope that there are many other Republican voters as delusional as you. Michele Bachmann is not Ronald Reagan. Not even close.

[DonSurber]

Howdy, I Am Iron Man.They said the same thing about Reagan in 1980.

[Anonymous]

No way Perry takes the conservative vote from Bachmann. Personally I think Romney will win, hes gonna get the Pawlenty and Huntsman votes. Come primary time it will be Romney, Bachmann, Paul, and Cain on the ballot.

[I Am Iron Man]

Todd - As much as Id love for Michele Bachmann to actually end up being the GOP nominee (because shes a monumentally unqualified lunatic who would hand Obama & the Democrats a landslide victory up & down the ballot) --- I think you are right. I think she is just another in this long line of anti-Romney candidates... Maybe Rick Parry will be the next (and he seems to have more of a chance of actually sticking...)

[Todd Dugdale]

We are beginning to see a pattern of flare candidacies in the Republican Party. These candidates suddenly flare up in the polling, and then die out quickly. Trump, Cain, Gingrich have all been hailed as saviours, but never lasted. And there is always some super-candidate that isnt running, but the same people who hailed the previous saviours are always ready to assure us that the current super-candidate will break the race wide open. Bachmann surging this early is probably more a sign of a flare candidate, than one of serious competition for Romney.

[Anonymous]

Once Rick Perry announces hes in, the polls will probably show a Rick Perry surge as he becomes the conservative alternative to Romney.

[Anonymous]

...and Paul, well, hes probably stuck around 10% in perpetuity.OK, now we know. Public Policy Polling is one of the top political polling agencies working for the Establishment. They have put the word out to all other polling agencies and Washington stenographers: THOU SHALT NOT REPORT RON PAUL ABOVE 10%.PPP has an agenda:1. Perpetual War all over the world2. Total Destruction of Freedom3. PPP is FOR TSA Feel-ups and Gate-rape4. $700B was a drop in the bucket- they want all your money and your gold fillings.The reason why there are flash surges and drops with republicans is they dont really care who is ahead by election day as long as Ron Paul isnt leading.Too bad for them!Ron Paul WON CPAC 2011 and 2010, the year of the tea party. His son Rand is an elected Senator from Kentucky.Ron Paul WON the RLC, with about twice the second place finisher- who did not show up and who has since fizzled away- I think his name started with an H.And Romney? 77- you got to be kidding me.Now Ron will win the primary. It will be interesting to hear Rush or Hannity support O-Bomb-a over Paul. They support killing brown people just as O-bomb-a does, just dont let the mess in their own back yard. Oh, I forgot, too late. From what I hear, Janet Napolitano has said every old lady with a diaper is a terrorist now. Dont worry granny- theyll stop when they meet your tender resistance. - Just keep voting for em, if you want that social security. Sounds like Quid Pro Quo to me!

[Anonymous]

All the GOP candidates have feet of clay, as do Obama and all the Presidents who preceeded him, so lets stipulate that. None of the moderate left Obama supporters will abandon him, although many of the far left and moderates have, so no drama there. The main point is that it didnt take an Eisenhower to defeat Carter in 1980 and it wont take a Reagan to defeat Obama in 2012. Today a generic Republican defeats Obama, granted at times the generic does better than an actual candidate. Having seen Obama stumble frequently without the teleprompter, and now with a horrible record to defend, many in the current GOP field can further damage and defeat him. The large field of declared and undeclared candidates are mobilizing a broad spectrum of voters who will put their faith in one of them to rid us of this Administration, much like what happened four years ago.

[Jason Singleton]

Cant believe there are still so many RINOS on the so-called liberty/tea-party blogs! How can anyone even consider Mitt Romney as if he will bring over the independents?? 80% of the independents are libertarians and will just not vote so you will get Obama round 2 or Bush round 3. HMMMM let me think about that?? I want change and I am going to put another RINO in there. You people are squandering such an amazing opportunity not seen in decades. I am not surprised though b/c the dual monarchy we live in has been scamming the sheeple for over 100 years so advantage to the Rothschilds and Bildeberg group.

[J Baustian]

It is true that Michele Bachmann is not Ronald Reagan. He spent 25 years fine-tuning his message, beginning in 1954 when he was host of GE Theatre and traveled the country addressing General Electric workers. In 1962 he switched his party registration to Republican, in 1964 he worked for Goldwater, in 1966 he was elected governor of California, in 1976 he challenged Gerald Ford for the presidency.Bachmann does not have much experience on the national stage. She knows what she believes, and she is generally in synch with the majority of the electorate; but she does not have the smooth confidence of Ronald Reagan. She has made mistakes and she will make more. But she still has a shot at the White House.