Thoughts on NY-26

Today Daily Kos released a poll we conducted for them which found Democrat Kathy Hochul leading with 35% in the NY-26 special election to 31% for Republican Jane Corwin and 24% for Tea Party candidate Jack Davis.

Obviously Davis' presence in the race is the biggest reason it's so competitive and a lot of what I wrote last April about why a Charles Djou special election win in Hawaii wouldn't be that meaningful applies here as well. Still I think there are several very important things we found on this poll that reinforce some of what we've been seeing in our national polling and show why Democrats should have a very real chance to take the House back next year:

-Congressional Republicans are extremely unpopular. They have a 31% approval rating in this district to 57% disapproving. That makes them a whole lot more unpopular than Barack Obama, who has a 40/53 approval spread. Democrats are more unhappy (82%) with the new House majority than GOP voters (only 51% approval) are pleased with it and independents split against the Republicans by a 23/64 margin as well.

-The dominance the GOP showed with independents last year is over. Hochul is winning the independent vote with 37% to 31% for Davis and 20% for Corwin. A more significant finding though is that 39% of independent voters want their new representative to caucus with the Democrats in Washington to 36% who want the winner to side with the Republicans. That suggests Hochul might be winning even in a two way race with independents and after a year where independents nationally sided with the GOP by a 19 point margin on the national House ballot that's very meaningful.

-There no longer appears to be an enthusiasm gap. John McCain won this district by 6 points in 2008 and we found that likely voters for the special election reported voting for McCain by a 6 point margin as well. That's a big contrast to last year when we frequently found those turning out to vote were 5-10 points more Republican leaning than the 2008 electorate. In 2010 GOP voters were fired up while Democrats remained relatively complacent. The Boehner Speakership has quickly shaken the cobwebs out of Democratic voters.

Because of the Davis angle people should be cautious about reading too much into it if Hochul really does end up winning this race. But it would also be a mistake to declare it meaningless.

Comments

[Anonymous]

A little bit off-topic too, but you did a Pennsylvania poll recently.Did you just forget to release the 2012 GOP primary numbers from PA, or didnt you poll them ?

[Smooth Jazz]

Still I think there are several very important things we found on this poll that reinforce some of what weve been seeing in our national polling and show why Democrats should have a very real chance to take the House back next year:You have got to be kidding me! You didnt post that with a straight face did you?? I bet your tongue was planted firmly in your cheek when you posted that. You guys are tools of DailyKOS & SEIU; Do you really believe anyone takes you guys seriously other that the Dialy KOS Koolaid crowd. Good grief.You completely blew what was happening in WIS. All your polls there showed Gov Walker in trouble and Repubs getting trounced. What happened there is a reminder why your current polls are completely useless, and why your surveys cannot be believed until next year when when other pollsters will also be in the field to keep you guys honest.I agree that youve had some credible results in the past when other pollsters are in the field, since you know anything out of whack to appease your sponsors will likely be obvious. But when you guys have the floor to yourselves, I notice your numbers appear more out of whack and more in line with what your sponsors (Who after all are paying you guys) would like to see.

[Anonymous]

How do you extrapolate to the state houses? The largest negative impact that the republicans are having I suspect is as a result of their control of so many state houses. All those anti-immigration, anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-shira law, anti-unemployed, anti-union, anti-anti I think is driving the negatives. What does the polling suggest?

[Andrew Carden]

Tom, a little off-topic, but who won in the bonus Republican poll?

[Anonymous]

Umm smoothjaz how did they blow Wisconsin. Their polling numbers actually showed Gov. Walker with betters numbers (46/52) then Rasmussen showed him (43/57). Think before you talk next time.

[Anonymous]

How do you extrapolate to the state houses? The largest negative impact that the republicans are having I suspect is as a result of their control of so many state houses. All those anti-immigration, anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-shira law, anti-unemployed, anti-union, anti-anti I think is driving the negatives. What does the polling suggest?LOL. Problem number one in this country is people like this are allowed to vote.

[Anonymous]

This is largely anecdotal but during a phone bank of likely voters of every stripe, I tallied registered Republicans as the group least likely to know the candidates in the special election and the group least sure whether they planned on voting in it. Even Inds and blanks were more attentive and enthused. This might mean they just werent clued in yet or that they were just not enthused about Corwin.

[Anonymous]

The Hard Right took over the GOP and it has pushed some unpopular positions that well represent corporate power while $crewing the rest of America. The House of Representatives has quickly become an playground for ideological extremists of the American Right -- now little different from the John Birch Society.By representing Corporate America at the expense of all else they have often shown themselves responsible more to their political backers than to their constituents. Many current House Republicans will be vulnerable in 2012 for being extremists or representing out-of-district interests at the expense of their constituents.

[Anonymous]

Jazz-Walker has not come up for a recall election yet. Nor have any of the GOP senators. What election are you talking about?

[Alec Mento]

Wow, Smooth Jazz -- three paragraphs and no less than *four* personal attacks on the pollster, with exactly *zero* facts to back up your argument. Plus, the beginning of paragraph 3 largely repeats the end of paragraph 2.