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May 24, 2011

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Anonymous

Werent the Republicans at the same low level of popularity spring 2009 when they lost a seat in upstate NY? They were behind in every generic congressional poll until after August.

I Am Iron Man

Im extremely excited about this victory for the Democrats and I certainly hope they are paying attention. MEDICARE. MEDICARE. MEDICARE. This is a winning issue and they need to run with it every single day. 235 House Republicans are on the hook. 235 House Republicans are on record as voting to end Medicare. Make every single one of them answer for what they did.

Anonymous

if paul ryan does pass, seniors and their children must simply learn to live with less.

belegoster

Congratulations ppp on the call! I must admit it is very impressive to continue to make prescient calls while being associated with a partisan organization.

Anonymous

Its interesting that 48% is also about the high-water mark for the Democratic performance in general. Its what Obama got in 2008, and what Crazy Davis (then-Dem, now Tea) got in 2006. So at the very least, this result is sort of a return to the Dem-majority years of 2006/2008 (if you allocate all of Daviss support to Republicans, which is certainly not the case.)

roseonpolitics

Clearly this victory gives the Democrats the upper hand. They know what to say.What I find interesting is that the more change enacted with the Ryan budget and Affordable Health Care Act, they more people seem to be against it.

NRH

Rasmussens Republican bias was thoroughly documented by Nate Silver after the 2010 election (and after the 2008 election, too). Its not a matter of disliking his right-wing politics; its his ongoing statistical bias. If he consistently produces results that, across the universe of his polls, are more Republican than Election Day actually shows, and are more Republican-friendly than the rest of the polling universe, it is entirely fair and supported by data to state that Rasmussens published results include a Republican-leaning bias. TiT, if you want to claim that hes honest, find some countervailing data to back it up.

The Interesting Times

As for NY-26, I argue the opposite: it really doesnt mean much.First of all, the Republicans for whatever reason havent done a very good job of winning special elections for the past year or two. It didnt affect their general election performance in the least.Secondly, there was a tea party spoiler in the mix in NY-26. Without Davis, Corwin would have won comfortably. (Assuming most of Davis votes would have gone for Corwin, he would have won 52-47.)Third, the previous holder of the seat, Republican Chris Lee, resigned in disgrace under a cloud of scandal. Scandals always put serious hurt on the party of the politician responsible, causing that party to lose an election it would normally have won.Both the scandalous resignation of Lee, and the presence of Davis, make NY-26 a special case and not a sign of things to come.Finally, its highly unlikely that the Democrats will win back the House in 2012. A change in House ownership twice in two years has only happened one time in the past 100 years that I know of. Such drastic swings generally dont happen.Moreover, history shows that its tougher for either party to win seats in an on-year election. In other words, while off-year elections like 2010 tend towards producing sharp swings, on-year elections like 2012 tend towards preserving the status quo--in this case, Republican control of the House.The Democrats are very unlikely to regain control of the House in 2012, unless the President sees a major increase in his approval rating, which would give him some new coattails to ride.The Democrats best chance of winning back the House would be in 2014--especially if Obama were to lose in 2012, giving them a Republican President to run against two years later.

The Interesting Times

I see the anti-Rasmussen kooks are out in force. Anyone who actually looks at the data can see that Rasmussen is really no better or worse than the average pollster.And anyone who sees Rasmussen showing higher approval ratings for Obama than Gallup more often than not, and still thinks they have a right-wing bias, needs to get his head checked.It would be nice if we could keep the partisan hackery separate from the polling science.

678 Media Group

Blogger Pavonis said... Hi, have you noticed that Rasmussen is getting the opposite result from you on the generic ballot test? He shows GOP +7 on his May 15 poll. If I were Scotty, Id be getting real nervous about betting so hard against PPP ;). Besides, he was very biased towards the GOP in 2010, according to fivethrirtyeight. --------------------------------------Rasnussen new congressional generic poll has GOP down to a 2 point lead ..

NRH

The difference is, the reality-based community uses how well did you perform against the actual voting as a criteria for selecting pollsters, and the Republicans use how much do we like the numbers you produce as their criteria. If you want Republican propaganda, watch Scotty Raz. If you want to know where the races actually stand, watch PPP.

Todd Dugdale

Pavonis, you are right. In fact, if you look at the composite graphs and filter out Rasmussen, the result is very close to a +7 Democratic lead on the GCB. Rasmussen is, in effect, saying that all other pollsters are dramatically wrong.This will change, though. Probably in August, Rasmussen will claim that some event dramatically pushed voters toward the Democrats, and his LV screen will be adjusted.

Anonymous

PPP got it right.

Pavonis

Hi, have you noticed that Rasmussen is getting the opposite result from you on the generic ballot test? He shows GOP +7 on his May 15 poll. If I were Scotty, Id be getting real nervous about betting so hard against PPP ;). Besides, he was very biased towards the GOP in 2010, according to fivethrirtyeight.

The Interesting Times

NRH, Ive mentioned several times that Rasmussens Obama approval rating has been, for some time, more often than not higher than the approval ratings shown by Gallup and several other pollsters.That would be a left-wing bias on Rasmussens part, if I believed in that sort of thing.Theres a methodologial difference, but not a politically-motivated one.

Dustin Ingalls

Without Davis, Corwin would have won comfortably.False. If you read our poll analysis and Nate Silvers post yesterday, youd change your tune.

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