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May 25, 2011

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Josh

Per a recemt CNN poll, Ron Paul matches up best against Obama because he can pull over a large number of independents and progressives who wanted to see an end to our foreign interventions back in 2009 with Obama.See: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/05/cnn-poll-still-no-front-runner-in-the-battle-for-the-gop-nomination/

The Interesting Times

Obamas good performance in North Carolina seems to be mostly an Obama thing, not a general Democratic Party thing. When Obama is no longer on the ballot (i.e., starting in 2016), North Carolina isnt likely to stay a blue state.

ESDudley

And even if Ron Paul by some miracle wins the Republican nomination, the national election is more then lost. There are only a few candidates that will lose the general election faster then Ron Paul.

I Am Iron Man

Anony - its probably because Ron Paul has no real chance of winning the Republican nomination. Libertarian leaning Republicans make up a pretty small portion of the people who vote in GOP primaries.

Anonymous

How can you say it is looking good when you only polled him against two people currently running? CNNs May 5 poll said Ron Paul polled stronger than any other GOP potential, including Huckabee, but you havent put him into your head to head presidential polls since he declared his candidacy.Why?

Anonymous

Things look good for Obama but its still early for the GOP. At this point in 2004 Joe Lieberman led the pack.

Brian J

I remember arguing with someone when The Emerging Democratic Majority came out over whether a state like North Carolina would undergo the change it currently is experiencing. This person said it was unlikely that the state would go towards the Democrats, given the sheer number of votes that would be required, but I said it was definitely possible. Its very, very nice to be right.Anyway, I continue to think that if hes going to win North Carolina and Virginia, hell almost certainly win Pennsylvania. I dont mean for this to sound too nasty or critical, but the last poll from Pennsylvania had some odd results, like Romney getting 20 percent of the black vote against Obama. Its not impossible for a Republican to do relatively well with these voters in the state, as Bush showed in 2004, but that was after careful outreach. And of course, Kerry wasnt black, while Obama is. I would think that if Obama were to lose Pennsylvania while winning North Carolina, itd have to be for very special reasons.

NRH

The shift in North Carolina is no more restricted to Obama than the conversion of Colorado and Virginia from red-state status to swing-state status. In all three states, demographics have shifted, with Democratic-leaning urban areas having finally grown enough to counterbalance rural parts of the state. Younger voters in all three states are far more ethnically diverse than the preceding generation and are an increasingly large portion of the electorate with each passing cycle, which is bad news for the whites-only Republicans. Obama helped exaggerate the effect by drawing in a higher-than-usual percentage of minority voters to the polls, getting black voters to show up in proportion to their numbers for the first time ever in some states, but thats only good for a couple of points at best. The structural shift is demographic, not personality-driven.

Dustin Ingalls

When Obama is no longer on the ballot (i.e., starting in 2016), North Carolina isnt likely to stay a blue state.Its not even a blue state now, but the competitiveness of the state is here to stay. Obama certainly has a lot to do with it, but the trends in the state due to population growth from other parts of the country have been lurking under the radar even before 2008. 2010 aside, Democrats (and I mean national liberal-moderate Dems, not just the Southern Dems who have always dominated state politics) have been making gains in the state for 20 years. The Dems controlled the state legislature almost exclusively for over 100 years, and NC has had a Democratic governor since 1993, an almost exclusively Democratic Council of State, and still an 8-7 advantage in the congressional delegation even after Etheridges unlikely defeat of his own making.

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