Polls

Tight race in Pa., Obama ties Romney, Huckabee, Santorum

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Obama_vs_gop_pa_0411 Raleigh, N.C. –
Like other Northeastern and Midwestern states PPP has polled in recent months, Pennsylvania is set to feature a closer race for the White House than in 2008, when President Obama rolled through the Great Lakes with double-digit victories in almost every state.  But unlike in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and others, President Obama actually trails one potential opponent and barely leads two others in PPP’s latest look at the Keystone State.  No GOP presidential nominee has won Pennsylvania since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Only against Sarah Palin does the president match his 10-point victory margin over Palin’s 2008 running mate, John McCain, leading her 50-39.  He also has a strong lead over Newt Gingrich, 47-39.  But he narrowly lags Mitt Romney, 42-43, and just edges Mike Huckabee, 45-44, and the state’s former senator, Rick Santorum, 45-43.

Respondents report only voting for Obama over McCain by four points, about the same as in PPP’s final poll before the 2010 election which featured a surge in Republican turnout.  Other states have begun to bounce back toward an electorate more like 2008’s.

The president’s approval rating is way under water, with only 42% approving and 52% disapproving, putting his standing here in league with where PPP has found him recently in Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi, and worse than in McCain states like South Dakota, South Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. 

Since then and since 2008, Obama has declined with his own party.  24% of them disapprove of his job performance, and 14-19% are planning to vote for the GOP nominee, versus only 10% who crossed over in 2008, according to exit polls.  He won decisively with independents then, but unaffiliated voters split between him and the top three Republicans, and give him strong leads against only Gingrich and Palin.

“Obama’s big problem in Pennsylvania right now is keeping conservative white Democrats in line,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “They voted for him in November 2008 after supporting Hillary Clinton in the primary, but they have not liked what they’ve seen in his first two plus years in office.”

PPP surveyed 593 Pennsylvania voters from April 7th to 10th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African American……………………………………… 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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