Polls

Walker would lose rematch with Barrett in Wisconsin

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Walker_barrett Raleigh, N.C. –
With a 46-52 job approval rating, Scott Walker comes into office more popular than his predecessor, Jim Doyle, who by late last October was one of the least popular governors in the country.  But in the midst of the ongoing battle over public employees’ collective bargaining rights in Wisconsin, that same 52% who disapprove of Walker’s performance so far would rather elect his 2010 Democratic opponent, Tom Barrett, if they could do last November’s contest over again.  47% are comfortable with the office’s current occupant.  9% of those who claimed to have voted for Walker would cast a ballot for Barrett, compared to only 4% of Barrett’s voters inclined the other way.  And with the small share who say they did not vote or cannot remember who they voted for but who may vote in 2012, Barrett wins, 59-22.  Walker and his fellow Republicans benefited a lot from a surge in GOP turnout and apathy among the Democratic base last fall, a phenomenon not likely to recur next fall.

With a lot of voters angry over Walker’s actions, there has been some talk of a recall.  But that action would divide voters evenly.  48% say they would support an early end to Walker’s term, and 48% would oppose it. 

Similar to Walker’s job approval figure, 52% of the state’s voters side with the Senate Democrats and 47% with Governor Walker in the dispute over the budget and workers’ rights.  But as on the recall measure, voters are split at 48% on whether they see the particular 14 senators who left the state favorably or unfavorably.

Voters generally have a favorable impression of unions, with 49% seeing them positively and 41% negatively.  41% also say that public employees should have fewer rights than they do now, but a 44% plurality think they should keep the same amount of rights, and a further 11% think they should have even more rights, meaning a 55% majority think state workers should have at least as many rights as they currently enjoy.  An even larger 57% think these workers should have collective bargaining rights, far more than the 37% who do not.  Further, a 51% majority sides with these unions in the battle, versus only 47% who back Walker.

“Wisconsin voters are closely divided on the current controversy in the state but they do lean slightly against their Governor,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “It’s not as if his numbers are so bad that he’ll never be able to recover though.”

PPP surveyed 768 Wisconsin voters from February 24th to 27th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you generally have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of the labor unions in
Wisconsin?
Favorable ………….. 49%
Unfavorable……….. 41%
Not sure ……………. 9%

Q3 In the current conflict between Governor
Walker and public employee unions in
Wisconsin, do you side more with Governor
Walker or the unions?
Governor Walker … 47%
The unions ………… 51%
Not sure ……………. 2%

Q4 Do you think public employees in Wisconsin
should or should not have a right to collective
bargaining for wages, benefits, and working
environment rules?
Should have a
right to collective
bargaining ………….57%
Should not…………. 37%
Not sure ……………. 7%

Q5 Do you think that public employees in
Wisconsin should have more rights, fewer
rights, or about the same amount of rights they
have now?
More rights ………… 11%
Fewer rights ………. 41%
About the same
amount of rights ….44%
Not sure ……………. 4%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the state senators who left the state to
prevent a vote on the budget bill?
Favorable ………….. 48%
Unfavorable……….. 48%
Not sure ……………. 4%

Q7 In the current dispute do you side more with
Governor Walker or the Democrats in the state
Senate?
Governor Walker … 47%
Senate Democrats 52%
Not sure ……………. 2%

Q8 Would you support or oppose recalling Scott
Walker from office before his term is up?
Would support ……. 48%
Would oppose ……. 48%
Not sure ……………. 4%

Q9 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Tom
Barrett or Republican Scott Walker?
Tom Barrett ……….. 52%
Scott Walker………. 45%
Not sure ……………. 4%

Q10 In the election for Governor last year did you
vote for Democrat Tom Barrett or Republican
Scott Walker, or did you not vote in the
election?
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 47%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Didn’t vote/Don’t remember ………………………. 7%

Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q12 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 68%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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