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March 23, 2011

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JTB

@ Dustin Igalls if the margin is as close as you say the swing could go either direction. I believe Huckabee will take NC.

Anonymous

Any chance we could see Rand Paul in an upcoming poll? After his comment that the only decision he has made is that he will not run against his father, it makes me wonder if his Ron is that serious about running or setting up Rand for 2012.

Dustin Ingalls

Its mostly the moderates and conservatives that are undecided at this point, so Obamall probably need that convention boost.Eau contraire. If you assign the undecideds proportionally to where each ideological group falls now, Huckabee would be up only 50-49.

Anonymous

Its mostly the moderates and conservatives that are undecided at this point, so Obamall probably need that convention boost.

RC

I dont know how much of an effect having the DNC convention in North Carolina will help Obama. The effect could baked in or he could have a post convention NC bounce. I think it will add a point or two to Obamas final margin. I think the GOP holding their convention in Florida will have a similar positive effect for the eventual GOP nominee.Start preparing now.

Ranjit

Dustin,One factor that you fail to take into account is ENTHUSIASM GAP. In 2008, when obama won the state, college students were euphoric and worked overtime to call people 3 or 4 times and remind them to vote. Honestly, we all know that this is not going to happen in 2012. To be honest, so many of them are very depressed that they are not able to find jobs. Also, African Americans will not come out to vote with same numbers like 2008. The election will be decided by wake county

dustin

NC is a prime state for Obama to target for the following reasons:*Population growth*High AA population*Moderate state, overall*Highly educated voters in Triangle*Becoming a younger population*DNC will boost him at least 2-3 points.Go Obama!

Jonny V

People must also remember that while everyone knows everything about Obama and people have been trying to destroy his reputation for years now... the average American doesnt know that much about Mike Huckabee (or Mitt Romney) ... theres a long way to fall. I do not think Huckabees positive approval ratings will stand up to a general election campaign. He is way *way* too conservative on social issues.There may have been a time when that would have helped him, but not in 2012. The country is getting more socially liberal every year.

dustin

Obama will win NC 51/49.

Anonymous

Huckabee is not going to run...

dustin

Dustin, It will probably actually come down to the margins, in Forsyth/Guilford? Wouldnt you think?Thanks, for the good work!

Dustin Ingalls

One factor that you fail to take into account is ENTHUSIASM GAPThat term means a gap between the enthusiasm of the two parties. In 2008, Democrats were more enthusiastic than Republicans, and the reverse last year. 2012 will be more like 2008, and Id expect pretty similar turnout from young people and definitely from African-Americans.Obama will win Wake easily. Its not exactly a swing county. Marshall lost it to Burr, but thats not saying much.

dustin

I can agree with you slightly, that the college aged voting block, will not vote in as high of volume, but it will still sway heavily towards Obama. People seem to forget, that NC is transforming into a more Urban state, and of course, that is where most of the voters are. As long as Obama can win in Forsyth/Guilford/Buncombe/Cumberland, he will win the state, assuming that he will obviously win Durham/Orange/Mecklenburg, by large margins. I can also agree, that it may come down to Wake in the end, but he should pull it off there by 10 points or so. IMO, the DNC will help boost new voter registration, which will add to the Democratic advantage that NC already has.

Dopper

I know this is hard to believe, so Ill site my source NBCs Chuck Todd How Obama won. But NC was the only state in the country where the share of the Black vote went down between 2004 and 2008. Black voters didnt turn out in the numbers that most people expected. Which is why Obamas win was so impressive. One can speculate if this was a result of AA remembering how Jesse Helms used race to beat an AA senate candidate who was up 10 point with a month to go. But in any event the black vote will most likely go up in NC unlike all the other 49 states.

Anonymous

Dopper, thats a shocking statistic because its not true. In 2004, black voters were 19% of the electorate (about the same as they were in the midterms last year). In 2008, they were 23%. Could you quote exactly where Mr. Todd says this?

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