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March 29, 2011

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Donald Trump

These numbers are proof of one thing: Mississippi is a shithole. 16% approval rating among white people? That just creeps me out.

Bob

Interesting. Looks like that high approval rating reported by Gallup isnt really anything at all. I was kind of skeptical of it from the beginning, but this proves it. Thanks PPP for finally polling this race.Brian J: The democrats would be dumb to try and make a play for Mississippi. Itd be near impossible to win it.

Brian J

Anonymous,I would never say never. It would certainly be an uphill battle, requiring a lot of time and money, but if someone like Palin is the nominee, pretty much everything is up for grabs. Someone as toxic as her gives the Democrats the opportunity to turn out every last voter to get them over the hump. A victory, should one occur in that situation, wouldnt be large, but itd be a victory nonetheless.

John

What about the primary numbers? Will they be released tonight/tomorrow?

Anonymous

To Brian J:In Mississippi theres still a small Bradley effect.If you look at 2008 pre-election polls from Mississippi, youll see that 20% of Whites said that they would choose Obama over McCain.http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6ae5fbf5-dd41-412c-866d-84737dcf9119In the Exit Poll, only 11% of Whites voted for Obama.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#MSP00p1This was compensated by the fact that more African-Americans voted for Obama than what the pre-election polls predicted.For example: Polls before the election predicted that Obama would win only 80-85% of Blacks, but the Exit Poll said that 98% of Blacks voted for Obama.Therefore, the overall percentage for Obama (43%) was very similar to the pre-election polls.

Anonymous

Brian- There is no play to be made in Mississippi for Obama. None whatsoever. The seat Gene Taylor lost to Palazzo is gone for the forseeable future, as is the seat Travis Childers lost to Nunnelee. Gregg Harper has nothing to worry about. The only bright spot for the Democrats in MS is Bennie Thompson, who represents the delta and has that job for as long as he wants it.

Anonymous

Mississippi numbers prove two bad things: racism and bigotry.

Brian J

Obama has a 16 percent approval rating amongst whites, but would all of such people vote for him? Or is there some small sub group that likes him but wont vote for him? I guess that is possible, but if you approve of him in Mississippi, why arent you voting for him? And could it go higher as the Republican candidates become more visible but less liked?On the same note, his approval amongst blacks is 93 percent, but I have to think that he wouldnt do that much differently than he did in 2008, when he secured 98 percent of that groups votes. I could go on, but the numbers suggest that he hasnt moved much at all in two years. Depending on how adventurous he wants to be, he could make a play for the state, if only because its so damn cheap, has a few potentially winnable House seats, and a huge long shot Senate contest.

Dustin Ingalls

What about the primary numbers? Will they be released tonight/tomorrow?Thats usually one of the last things we release, if not the last. Probably Friday or next Monday.

Kevin

He could win against Palin...but probably not.

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