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February 14, 2011

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The Interesting Times

They say a lot can change by election day, and one thing thats changed so far is a surge in Huckabees fortunes, a similar decline in Romneys, the emergence of Palin as a legitimate spoiler, and the total collapse of Gingrichs potential lead.Incorporating the most recent PPP polls into my running RNC delegate estimate, Huckabee becomes the clear frontrunner with an estimated 747 delegates (assuming Romney manages to win the two tossup states of Michigan and New Jersey, in both of which I regard him as favored to win).Romney, previously the frontrunner, is now running in second with 488 delegates. However, it is possible that he could pick up a significant number of delegates in the other Northeastern and Western states that havent yet been polled, perhaps enough to make up his current deficit.Palin is way behind with 265 delegates, but its clear that shes playing a spoiler in some states that would have gone to Romney, like Maine and Washington.Finally, Gingrichs path to nomination has almost totally vanished. He comes in with only 59 delegates. Just behind him is Pawlenty with 54 delegates.Thune and Paul are insignificant with a mere 27 and 21 delegates, respectively. Finally, Daniels comes in dead last with just 5 delegates.

Anonymous

23/53 is pretty standard for a Republican considering that the sample from the poll you are citing was 54/14 Democrat/Republican.

Evan A.

I cant help but question the results of this poll, when Palin is faring so poorly in other states (i.e. NH). This is especially relevant in NM, which has a Hispanic majority, when you consider a recent ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions poll citing widespread Hispanic disgust with Palin (53% unfavorable vs. only 23% favorable).

Bill589

Leading at 22% after being the only one to be attacked through the media for 2 years is a testament. (This is her absolute bottom. When she campaigns, people will hear good things about her too, and her numbers will rise.)

Dustin Ingalls

We said a small lead. Thats why the headline wasnt Palin romps or something like that.

Anonymous

Tom,Its tough to reconcile this statement she does poorly in Presidential preference polls with this poll and your other polls.How is she doing poorly when she leads in some and is near the lead in others? If you are relying upon the Republicans already knows her argument, then why doesnt that also apply to Romney as nearly the same percentage also knows him?

Anonymous

Leading at 22% is hardly a testament. Stop the crap

Couves

Only in New Mexico...Gary Johnson is still liked by those who know him best, voters in his home state… not something you could say about Mitt Romney. How Johnson will be received in the rest of the country is yet to be determined, but his numbers here are strongly suggestive.

Anonymous

And hes still down double digits. Its like saying hed be the best loser, which is essentially what the eventual nominee will be in the larger election--even Romney or Huckabee.

The Interesting Times

Im referring to Gary Johnsons electability in the general vs. Obama. The PPP poll shows that hes the strongest Republican.Only in New Mexico...

Couves

Interesting Times: Im referring to Gary Johnsons electability in the general vs. Obama. The PPP poll shows that hes the strongest Republican. As to his chances in the GOP primary, please see my if qualifier... ;-)On Johnsons electability vs. Obama:http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_0210.pdf

The Interesting Times

If Republicans want someone who is electable and has an unquestionable record as a fiscal conservative, Johnson meets both criteria.Johnsons electability isnt a given at this point, especially considering his associations with Ron Paul. (Like it or not, Ron Paul has no appeal outside of his cadre of initiates. Hes the radioactive guy no candidate wants around.)Moreover, most Republicans consider more than just the two criteria you listed (and given 2010 candidates like Miller and ODonnell, the first criterion might not even be part of the equation). In addition to a candidate who is fiscally conservative, most Republicans want a candidate who is also socially conservative, aggressive on foreign policy, and (for a signficant faction) religiously conservative as well.

Couves

The primary is a year away... it seems very premature to write-off Johnson, for President or Senate. If Republicans want someone who is electable and has an unquestionable record as a fiscal conservative, Johnson meets both criteria. His 42% favorability among 2008 Obama voters in NM is stunning for one of our nation’s most conservative recent governors. Also, no other Republican comes close to him with independents (46%) or Hispanics (52%).

Anonymous

I dont get the comment about Pearce. He just got elected again in 2010?

Anonymous

Its interesting to see Wilson with twice the support of Pearce on this front after he defeated her in the 2008 Senate primary but I guess its a recognition that his candidacy was a disaster and Republicans dont really want to give him another chance statewide.Are you KIDDING ME? Steve Pearce is so respected as the 2nd Congressional District Congressman we want him to stay put for a couple of terms. The hateful campaign run against him in the Republican 2008 Primary caused horrific hard feelings because of outright lies told by his opponent but Pearce is respected by those who know him and the standards he sets for himself and fellow congressional representatives. Ignorance makes statements like the one that finished up this otherwise fairly responsibly reported piece.

Tim

As a democrat, Ive always respected Gary Johnsons positions, even though I dont care for the Tea Party activities in which he has recently participated. (Maybe he should join Willies Teapot Party). He is probably being affected by the same influence that skewed (screwed) the last gubnatorial election: wealthy out-of-state retirees that are wreaking havoc with our traditional state politics.

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