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February 01, 2011

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Dustin Ingalls

Is there any way that PPP could make it easier to find polls?Weve got a revamped website coming soon. The blog will be integrated into it, rather than separate on Blogspot, and the polls will be searchable instead of locked into PDFs, so that might make it easier to find the data youre looking for. Were open to suggetions on how to better tag or organize polls by interest.

Anonymous

Is there any way that PPP could make it easier to find polls? Such as, an area for 2012 GOP national races, an area for national 2012 head to head vs Obama races, an area for 2012 individual states in head to head vs Obama, and an area for the individual states in the GOP 2012 races. That would make it easier for us political junkies.Thank you for doing all the various polling!

Dustin Ingalls

I saw a poll recently where it said 47% of Palin supporters would go 3rd party if she didnt win the nomination.Over half of her supporters have no second choice, way more than for any of the others, so this could be a problem. But more of her supporters (32% for Huckabee) favor a single candidate as their second choice than the supporters of any of the others. So basically, its Palin or bust...or maybe Huckabee, if we have to hold our nose.I doubt that Huckabee would be able to build enough momentum to capture FloridaWhy? When last we polled there in December, he was winning with 23% over Romneys 21% and Gingrichs 18%, but while thats a statistical tie, Im sure hes improved since then. Plus, he lives there now.A second-place showing in South Carolina could benefit Romney, helping him to make the case that hes not a total lost cause in the South.Yeah, Romney is a pretty strong second in both IA and SC, so he can blunt some of Huckabees momentum by spinning his finishes as near-wins after wins in NH (and NV if its happened yet).

Anonymous

@Interesting Times:A slight variation seems to make more sense to me:1. Huckabee, Romney2. Gingrich, Barbour, Palin3. Daniels, Pawlenty, Huntsman4. Paul, Thune

BOSMAN

Thanks PPP for including DeMint!HaHaHaHa!!Just what I expected. If Romneys buddy enters SC as a favorite son, Huckabee doesnt win.Stranger things have happenedRomney / DeMint in 2012!Count on it!

The Interesting Times

Heres my updated analysis based on my rough delegate counts:Romney and Huckabee are essentially tied for the lead now. Romney gets 634 delegates, while Huckabee gets 633. This is assuming Romney wins both Michigan and New Jersey, both states in which Romney has shown an advantage in the past. If Huckabee won either of those states, he would be leading Romney by about 100 delegates; if he managed to win both, he would be the clear frontrunner by about 200.South Carolina gives Huckabee a much-needed post-Iowa win, giving him the chance to blunt Romneys momentum going into Super Tuesday. Additionally, a South Carolina win could potentially propel Huckabee to a win in Louisiana (currently Gingrich territory) as well. I doubt that Huckabee would be able to build enough momentum to capture Florida, but even without it he would be in fairly good shape going into Super Tuesday.A second-place showing in South Carolina could benefit Romney, helping him to make the case that hes not a total lost cause in the South. South Carolina is a winner-take-all state, though, so second place is still more or less the first among losers here.Again, Romney and Huckabee are essentially tied at this point. Both have the same projected delegate count so far, and both go into Super Tuesday with some momentum.Palin is on the second tier of candidates with 233 delegates. Moreover, she fails to win any of the early states. In these circumstances, she has little chance of winning the primary, but she could potentially be a spoiler, to Romneys benefit.Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Paul constitute a third tier of candidates, with 59, 54, and 21 delegates, respectively. These candidates essentially have no chance, though one could conceivably be picked for the Vice Presidential slot by one of the frontrunners.Several months ago, when Gingrich was posting leads in large states like California and Texas, I would have advised Gingrich to run. I would not give the same advice today.Finally we come to the fourth tier: Daniels and Thune with a mere 5 and 3 delegates, respectively. I think their numbers speak for themselves.

Jonny V

This is unfortunate. While I think Huckabee and Romney are still very flawed candidates - they arent as obviously so as Palin and Gingrich.I was really hoping Obama would get to tee off against Palin. ... still am hoping. But it seems to be looking more and more like a long-shot.Palin is just too ridiculous, even for Republican primary voters.I still think it would be a very good thing for the Democrats for her to *try* to win the nomination. Because her failure at doing so may end up angering a lot of her supporters. I saw a poll recently where it said 47% of Palin supporters would go 3rd party if she didnt win the nomination. I dont really believe that... but hopefully a decent portion of them would.

Anonymous

very conservative Republican primary electorate In what way? Your sample is 33% moderate/liberal. That would mean the states primary electorate is a decent amount more moderate/liberal on average than the national average.

The Interesting Times

Solid analysis. It looks as if Gingrichs primary prospects have collapsed.

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