Public Policy Polling

Dean Heller gains clout in new Congress Reno Gazette Journal
Menendez says, despite some low poll numbers, he'll make his case for re-election Jersey Journal
Egypt shows value of a few media voices Lincoln Journal Star
Inside Politics brief: Obama's gains Fayetteville Observer

Obama tops in Omaha, losing handily to all but Palin statewide

Raleigh, N.C. – Nebraska split its electors for the first time in 2008, when President Obama won the 2^nd Congressional District containing Omaha by 1%, and John McCain won the other four votes.  Because the Obama campaign so heavily targeted the 2^nd district, McCain took the entire state by only 15 points, far less than George W. Bush’s 34-point victory over John Kerry.  In PPP’s first look at the state for the 2012 cycle, Obama remains at least as strong as two years ago, still winning Omaha by nine to 24 points but losing statewide to all four Republican frontrunners—most narrowly to Sarah Palin, who, like in PPP’s recent Texas poll, edges the president by only a single point.

North Carolinians on Repeal

North Carolinians have complex feelings about the health care bill passed last year that don't fall simply into either the 'repeal' or 'don't repeal' categories.

Only 33% of voters in the state support a full repeal of the bill. Another 21% are in favor of repealing certain parts of the bill, but not the entire thing. That's consistent with PPP findings during the debate about whether to pass it last year-while North Carolinians said they were opposed to the overall bill they were very supportive of several of its major provisions. The largest group of voters in the state, at 36%, actually wants the bill not just to stand but also to be strengthened. Only 7% want the bill to be kept intact exactly in its current form.

Legislative Republicans are in line with their party base by supporting a full repeal- that's the stance of 62% of GOP voters in the state. They are not, however, on the same page as independent voters whose overwhelming support of Republican legislative candidates gave the party its new majorities. There are more independents- 35%- who want to see the health care bill strengthened than there are- 33%- who would like the bill to be completely repealed.

This issue is a great example of where Republican could cause themselves trouble this year by over reading their mandate. Independents may have voted for them last year but that didn't mean they agreed with everything in the GOP agenda and this is a case where there's some tension between the priorities of the new majority and the voters who made it possible. Many more issues along these lines will crop up over the course of this year's session and how the Republicans handle them may determine whether their new power lasts only for two years, or for many more years to come.

Full results here

Obama/Palin competitive in Nebraska

You can add Nebraska to the list of 'Sarah Palin swing states.' She leads Barack Obama there by only a single point at 45-44.

If the Republican candidate for President next year is any of the other current front runners the state should remain in the red column where it's been reliably for years. Newt Gingrich leads him by 8 in the state (48-40), Mitt Romney leads by 12 (49-37), and Mike Huckabee is ahead by 13 (51-38). Romney and Huckabee's advantages are pretty comparable to the 15 point margin John McCain won the state by in 2008.

Obama's not particularly popular in the state, with only 38% of voters approving of him and 56% disapproving. But with the exception of Huckabee voters aren't all that enamored with the leading Republicans either. 50% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Palin to only 42% who see her in a positive light. Gingrich's numbers aren't much better with 43% rating him negatively to only 34% with a favorable opinion. Romney has net positive numbers by the slimmest of margins- 38% favorable and 35% unfavorable. Only Huckabee has real good personal numbers as 44% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 33% with a negative one.

Obama won an electoral vote in Nebraska in 2008 by taking the state's 2nd Congressional District and he would do so again if the election was today by a pretty healthy margin. His approval rating there is a positive 51/45 spread and he leads Romney by 9, Huckabee by 11, Gingrich by 19, and Palin by 24 there. The state may change the way it dispenses its electoral votes and there will probably be some changes in the district boundary lines but at least for now it looks like he would pick up a spare vote there just as he did the last time around.

Nebraska is certainly not going to be a swing state any time soon but it's a definite sign of weakness for the Republican field that voters don't think much of the leading potential candidates in one of the reddest states in the country. If Nebraskans don't like the GOP contenders you certainly can't expect that folks in Ohio or Florida or Virginia are going to. It will be interesting to see over the course of 2011 if anyone can emerge from the back of the pack with greater appeal to the voters- if that doesn't happen Obama could end up coasting to reelection.

Full results here

This week's finalists...

Here are the finalists for the two states where we'll poll this weekend. Voting is open until Thursday morning. As with last week we'll take the top two vote getters- unless neither of them has a 2012 Senate race. In that case we'll do the top vote getter and the top one that has a 2012 Senate rate. And as always if we see the same person voting for one state hundreds of times we reserve the right to disqualify it from consideration. Here they are:

-Colorado. One of the three remaining Bush/Obama states that we haven't polled yet. Interested to see if Obama's holding on in the state but beyond that would definitely need your suggestions on what to ask there without a race for Senator or Governor in 2012.

-Connecticut. Not interesting at the Presidential level but we have about 42 million permutations for the Senate race there next year that we could look at.

-Georgia. This is one of the few states Obama didn't win in 2008 that he could conceivably pick up next year- although certainly only in a landslide. Particularly interested in seeing how Gingrich's home state reacts to a potential bid. Like Colorado would need suggestions on what else to ask without a marquee down ballot race in 2012.

-Missouri. We already polled Missouri in early December but we're willing to take a look at it again already because the nature of the Senate race has really changed with Jim Talent not running and a bunch of new Republican names on the table. Also interested in seeing if the nationwide resurgence in popularity Obama had over the course of January now has him in better shape for taking Missouri next year.

-New Hampshire. Main interest here, like last week, is seeing what impact Rudy Giuliani getting into the Presidential race would have in the state. And also if the huge Republican year in the state bodes poorly for Obama's reelection prospects next year or if that was just a blip on the radar.

-New Mexico. Another of the Bush/Obama states that we haven't made it to yet although given his 15 point victory in the state in 2008 I have a hard time thinking it's going to be competitive next year, even with Susana Martinez's strong performance for Governor last year. Also a potentially interesting Senate race, particularly if Jeff Bingaman decides to hang it up.

-Washington. Maria Cantwell and Debbie Stabenow both won extremely close races against incumbents in 2000, then cruised to reelection in the Democratic wave year of 2006. Barack Obama won both of their states by about the same margin. Stabenow looks like she might really be in trouble for reelection. Is Cantwell? BTW for the purpose of keeping the survey at a reasonable length we would skip the Governor's race for now and just stay focused on President and Senate.

St. Louis vs. Charlotte: Tale of the tape Charlotte Observer
GOP hopefuls lining up to battle Nelson St. Petersburg Times

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty in Cincinnati for 'early' GOP pitch Cincinnati Enquirer
Would-be election is already 'special' Charleston (WV) Gazette
Polls show Democrats on fence regarding Perdue New Bern Sun Journal

Ticket for governor continues to expand WDTV 5
Poll: State may go Republican again Parkersburg News and Sentinel
Hoppy's Commentary for Friday West Virginia MetroNews

Huckabee leads GOP pres. field in NC, WV

Raleigh, N.C. – While he is also typically the strongest challenger to President Obama there, Mike Huckabee continues to show strength with Republicans in rural red and swing states.  He leads the presidential primary field with almost 30% support in each North Carolina and West Virginia

Bucking previous polls, results PPP released earlier this week showed Mitt Romney usurping Huckabee’s role as the strongest challenger to President Obama in the general election in the Tar Heel State, trailing by only three points.  But Romney faces an obstacle in getting to that point, for he places fourth with only 11% in the state’s primary, behind Huckabee’s 27%, Newt Gingrich’s 18%, and Sarah Palin’s 16%, and ahead of Tim Pawlenty’s 7%, Ron Paul’s 6%, Mitch Daniels’ 3%, and John Thune’s 1%, with 10% unsure or going elsewhere. 

Close WV Dem gov. primary, Capito runs away with GOP

Raleigh, N.C. – A Shelley Moore Capito candidacy would be an instant field-clearer on the Republican side of the West Virginia gubernatorial picture, and if she remains as strong in the general election as Wednesday’s release showed, she could be a shoo-in all the way to October.  But whoever her Democratic opponent ends up being will have a tougher road.  Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, only in office for a couple months, does not have the strength of a usual incumbent, and several Democrats see an opportunity to ascend to the state house, including popular Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who essentially ties Tomblin, with State Treasurer John Perdue not far behind.