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November 16, 2010


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Where is Chris Christie in your GOP polls? He is leading in Zogby (yeah, I know, Zogby), winning straw polls, and leading in Internet buzz (see Nate Silver). Stop with the 2008 re-treads!!!


And, of course, PPP once again leaves out one of the most viable candidates:Election 2012: Barack Obama 42%, Ron Paul 41%Pit maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up, and the race is – virtually dead even.


I actually think Gary Johnson has a shot at the nomination albeit a long one. He is the only true fiscal conservative on the list.


You left out a discussion of the next nominee--Gov. Gary Johnson (NM).


The Thune thing just makes me crazy. Pawlenty? Dont get what he brings to the table at all. Weve already vetted Mittens and said no. Im from Iowa. They are all dead except to the handlers who need a new job now that this cycle is put to bed. Where were they during this whole battle we just went through? We now can sense when a candidate is being pushed by the professionals looking for their next gig and have to find a product-candidate to market. I wont vote for anyone who wasnt in the trenches helping us fight for the survival of the United States and sat home and played it safe - til after the election. Sarah was the fiercest and most courageous. She manned up while everyone else played it safe.


These results seem on par with what I thought they would be. If Mitch Daniels is in he could hurt Romney and Pawlenty as well especially in the Midwest. Barbour could hurt Huckabee in the South. If John Thune runs, its a long-shot and most likely only to get his name out there for a future bid to be president (2016 if Obama wins re-election).


Pawlenty is just like Romney without the flip floppery or the health care baggage... Red elected in a blue state, boring, uncontroversial.


It seems obvious to me that Romney is actually doomed. I see the other three as splitting the nutter vote. So when one of them goes down (or if one of them doesnt enter) it seems like most of their votes will be going to one of the other crappy candidates rather than Romney.I see Romney as the only GOP candidate who could actually beat Obama in 12... luckily enough I think the Republican primary voters are too dumb to hand him the nomination.


Pawlenty and Romney both are hampered by having had to be governors in states where Republicans arent a natural governing party. It meant they both had to compromise, and the Republican Party isnt willing to tolerate compromise these days. They can hold up their performance in office as a sign that theyd be able to get things done as President, but that just means theyre splitting the same already-small political ground.The two contrasts to those two are Palin and Huckabee, also both former governors. Palin has made herself into an icon of the radical right, and she could win if the field is fragmented enough or if the 2012 Republican primary is teahadist-dominated, but would then be obliterated by President Obama in the general as poll after poll has demonstrated. Huckabee, though, would be the dangerous one. He governed in a conservative state where Republican political ideology goes over well, even with a Democratic state legislature. He gets to claim both having been able to work across the aisle (with Southern Democrats, anyhow) and to have stood on principle (since those Southern Democrats didnt send him too many things he found very disagreeable).Its far, far too early to be saying favorites, but I think Huckabee is the Republican candidate with the most potential to take over the primary race. Then again, I thought he was best positioned in 2008, too, but he got into a brawl on the right and left McCain to sneak away with the relative-moderates.

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