Polls

Bill Nelson Would Beat Rush Limbaugh in 2012

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – Rush Limbaugh has bloviated about politics on the radio and in books for two decades, but has never put his own hat in the ring.  Limbaugh, a Florida resident, could get his opportunity in 2012, when his senior senator, Bill Nelson, is up for re-election.  Nelson is potentially vulnerable, leading a little-known GOP congressman by only nine points in PPP’s latest poll.  But he would beat the massively unpopular Limbaugh handily.

Nelson tops Limbaugh, 50-36, and Congressman Connie Mack IV, 42-33.  A caveat in Nelson’s favor: these numbers come among the likely 2010 electorate, which is more GOP-heavy (and anti-incumbent) than 2012, a presidential year, will likely be.  If Nelson were facing an electorate with a partisan breakdown more like 2008’s, he would be ahead of Limbaugh, 53-33, and Mack, 45-31.

Nelson has a 40-35 job approval rating.  That mildly positive grade seems poor for someone heading into a re-election cycle, but in this toxic environment for politicians, that puts him in the top third, 20th out of 60 senators on which PPP has polled in 2010.

Mack, the great-grandson of the longtime Philadelphia A’s owner and manager, has a famous name, but represents only about 4% of the Sunshine State, and is thus still known to no more than 39% of voters.  Those who do profess to have an opinion of him break down, 18-21, slightly against him.

Limbaugh is anathema to everyone but Republicans, and even 22% of them dislike him.  The jock has an overall 35-53 favorability mark, boosted by his 64% with the GOP.  But he has respective 13-76 and 23-67 standings with Democrats and independents.

“Bill Nelson can only hope the GOP continues its string of bad primary picks and chooses Rush Limbaugh to go up against him next time,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Unlikely as that is, though, Nelson still looks pretty good in this bad year for Democrats.”

PPP surveyed 448 likely Florida voters from October 9th to 10th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.6%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
George LeMieux’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 15%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rush Limbaugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q5 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Republican Rush Limbaugh and Democrat Bill
Nelson, who would you vote for?
Rush Limbaugh……………………………………….. 36%
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Republican Connie Mack IV and Democrat Bill
Nelson, who would you vote for?
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 33%
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%

Q7 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%

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