Too Close to Call in Delaware

It looks like there’s a real possibility of a major upset in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday night, with insurgent conservative Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.

If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. Castle has an overwhelming 69-21 lead with moderate voters but they only make up 33% of the likely primary electorate. O’Donnell has a 62-31 lead with conservatives that’s more than enough to propel her to the overall lead.

It’s clear that Castle’s popularity has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction over the last month. An August PPP poll found his favorability with Delaware Republicans at a 60/25 spread. Now his favorables within the party are negative at 43/47. That’s largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he’s too liberal compared to 37% who think he’s about right.

GOP voters are pretty sharply divided about O’Donnell as well. 45% have a favorable opinion of her with 41% seeing her unfavorably. Only 50% of primary voters think she’s fit to hold public office but she does much better than Castle on the ideology front- 53% think she’s about right.

If O’Donnell pulls it out Tuesday night it will be a major victory for Delaware’s small but united group of Tea Party voters. Just 25% of Republicans in the state consider themselves to be members of that movement but they give her a 79-18 advantage that’s more than enough to overcome her 52-39 deficit with everyone else.

Assessing the impact of Sarah Palin's endorsement is similar to the Tea Party numbers. Only 35% of Republicans in the state say they're more likely to vote for someone with Palin's support to 24% who say it's a negative and 41% with no opinion. But O'Donnell is really running up the score with that third for whom it is a positive, leading Castle 83-13. That outweighs Castle's 82-11 lead with people who say it's a negative and his 49-41 advantage with people who don't care.

This race is too close to call and could certainly go either way Tuesday night. General election Senate numbers we'll release later this week make it clear the biggest beneficiary of this primary becoming so unexpectedly hotly contested is Chris Coons. He would start out with a large advantage over O'Donnell in a general election match up, and is polling closer to Castle than he was when PPP polled Delaware last month.

Full results here

Comments

[Ranjit]

Time and again, it has been proved that, we win elections being a conservative. When the wave comes, Christine O Donnel will win the seat in November. Regarding Castle, why do we need that seat, if he is going to support Obama and pelosi? For all those who are worried about individual races, you need to understand that the republican wave will propel her to the finish line. People are so mad and if anyone seriously thinks that, they are going to vote for a democrat because a tea party candidate won the GOP primary, you are naive.

[wt]

Its true that ODonnell will get a bounce if she wins the primary. I could see her losing to Coons by only 65/35, heck maybe even 60/40. She will definitely ride the wave.Also, FYI, if you call Castle a RINO, I will call you a RINO for supporting ODonnell. You have an ideological agenda that youre putting ahead of the partys fortunes. Your posts state as much. But trading a safe GOP pickup for a certain Democrat makes you a Republican in Name Only. Sorry RINOS.

[Northern Virginia Patriot]

Should ODonnell pull this out - the polls currently showing her down against the Machine Dem will change dramatically in her favor and the Dem will never poll over 50%. Once the political machines show weakness to the electorate hungry to change out leaders, its like blood in the water to sharks.The Political class has substantially over-played its hand on both sides, ODonnell will win using a Proxmire strategy fueled by the news of her upset. Cornyn & the NRSC will have to support her or Haleys Republican Governors Association will Kill them - Just like what happened with AK.Go ODonnell -

[Anonymous]

Cat fud! Heres to Castle running as an indie!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous... yes Castle did vote no on the healthcare bill... after the local conservative group leaders beat him up over him wanting to vote yes for it. He called a private meeting with them and tried to get them on board with his yes vote. It didnt go so well. He changed his mind. Thats about when he stopped listening to us.

[Anonymous]

People, please be patient. Even if a few races are lost with Tea Party candidates, this transformation will take time. The TP is not only the best hope for the country, but now for the world.We are it. No where to run to. It will take time and conservative perseverance to bring about real, long lasting change.You WILL NOT have gains worth keeping with moderate RINOS. It will be a repeat of a repeat. Pray, and keep God in your lives.

[Anonymous]

Castle only voted against Obama Care because Pelosi already had the votes she needed. This was obvious because he didnt make up his mind until 4 days before the vote. His liberal friends inside the beltway gave him permission to vote against it to save his face. Well, the folks in Delaware are on to Castles sham.

[Anonymous]

A question. Was there any difference between your polling on Saturday versus Sunday? In other words, is ODonnell still surging, or was there no difference. I understand ODonnell has got a Palin robocall going out across the state that started on Sunday.

[Anonymous]

Anon, did you know that Castle voted NO on the healthcare bill?Of course you didnt.

[Brandon K]

Ugh.Please please please be wrong.

[darren]

hahahahahaha

[Jayant Reddy]

At the risk of being censored: HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!Go ODonnell!This seat goes from likely R/safe R to safe D in an instant if Castle loses.And Democrats have yet one more example of the most powerful talking point we have for November: the opposition party is completely fucking batshit crazy and wont give you anyone fit to serve county dogcatcher.

[wt]

Wow. That is depressing. Delaware Dems can celebrate tonight. At least ODonnell fans will have to link to a poll that shows Coons with a solid lead if they hope to use.

[Anonymous]

Just drove from Dover to RT 301 in MD after visiting my parents ... Counted 35+ ODonnel signs to 1 Castle Signs... My parents are staunch Republicans and have decided to go with ODonnel becuse of his liberal votes with Health Care, Cap and Trade and the deal he made for his votes with Obama concerning education funding... They are also upset that Castle made a complaint about ODonnel to the the electon commission...can you say backfire big time... Looks desperate and a cheap shot... The establishment both Rep and Dem are going to take a salacking this election ... Time to make a big change..

[Anonymous]

Taking out under god? Ahha. I could care less. Thats an irrelevant position. Im a Democrat. HOWEVER, we shouldnt be required to buy health insurance. We should not be required to say certain words.Double standard by conservatives YET again. What a surprise.

[Anonymous]

Lets see vote for a conservative now. Or if Castle wins... you get the choice of two liberals later.

[Anonymous]

I hate to ruin the party but PPP is a liberal leaning group that hopes beyond hope ODonnell wins. Dont put too much faith in this poll.

[Anonymous]

If you have to vote for a brain dead liberal gop candidate like Castle,why vote GOP? Might as well vote for a Democrst! That way youll be certain to vote for someone thats brain dead! Go ODonnell!!DELAWARE DEMS CAN CELEBRATE TONITE?WHAT THE HELL DO YOU THINK THEY DO WHEN YOU VOTE FOR BRAIN DEAD CASTLE? THEY LAUGH AT REPUBLICAN VOTERS EVERY ELECTION! WAKE UP PEOPLE!

[Anonymous]

Hear, hear! There is no point in having these people in Washington, representing the GOP if they vote with the Democrats anyway. Thank God people are waking up, and they are now throwing out these do-nothing Republicans who allowed Obama to take us all down this socialist road to hell.

[Christy (Brinton) Found]

My reason for supporting Christine ODonnell are that she is an ardent constitutional conservative. The more I see from Castles campaign and the more I look into his voting record the less I think of him. I will admit I like Mike as a Governor, but the higher the office, the more for sale he seems. That I refuse to support. The fact that Castle signed off on taking under God out was the last straw. I know Christine, I believe she will represent us all, not just the Ruling Class. She will certainly be hold herself accountable. And by the way, she is no dummy. She was not born with a silver spoon, and has worked very hard to get everything she has like MOST of us.

[Anonymous]

Typical libtards lies lies NO MORAL INTEGRITY THEY ALL coward crook and as shole

[kavips]

Republicans need to decide who they are... Are they moderate in this time of deficits, or not...?Delaware Republicans like every major movement, start small and resonate.ODonnell is experienced at taking on liberals. Castle is not..The question is not whether you are, or are not a tea bagger. The question is whether you are, or are not a true Republican!ODonnell has the edge there.

[Anonymous]

Being Republican is not about winning races with Republicans.Its about working for smaller government and lower taxes.If a Republican isnt willing to support smaller government and lower taxes, what is the point of being in office?Good riddance to Castle and let the cards fall where they may.

[Anonymous]

RINOs like Castle MUST GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Delaware!! take lead on conservatism.

[DBL]

I like tea party candidates, as long as they are smart, ethical, and competent. Bring on Ken Buck. Yay for Marco Rubio. Joe Miller, go to Washington. Christine ODonnel is none of those things, however. Apparently, actually being able to do the job takes a back seat as long as someone votes exactly the way you do. At age 6 I supported Richard Nixon by knocking on doors. I couldnt support Christine ODonnel.

[jrd1]

Jayant Reddy, you mouth is a sewer. Do you eat out of it? It is very possible to get your point across without using a foul mouth. Do you expect any adult to consider the opinions of someone who behaves like a juvenile? Please grow up. Thank you.

[Anonymous]

Looking at the internals, theres still a significant undecided margin. Also, those who refused to be polled are not being counted. The ODonnel contingent is certainly more enthused and would be more likely to want to express their support to a pollster.This race will be very close, however if ODonnel wins, the Republicans in Delaware will have chosen Lonesome Rhodes, circa 2010,female version.This is what reactionary fervor creates.

[Anonymous]

yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. LOL. Only thing thats been strangled is the American economy - at the hands of liberals masquerading as moderates. You clearly arent comprehending the impending sea change, kid. Cannot wait for Novembers asskicking.

[Anonymous]

@WT: Dude, you seem very concerned about RINOs!, and you also seem abit concerned that if ODonnell wins the primary, Coons wins with what...65% of the vote ?You Democrat party-cheerleaders cant hide your fear...not only for whats coming in November, but also for folks like ODonnell, Palin, Brewer, Bachman......so have fun pretending you just cant wait for the November cycle, but youre not foolin anyone, fella......Democrats are going to get it, and they deserve it, for being rude, arrogant, but worse, a four-year disaster thats coming to an end.

[Anonymous]

Does anyone realize that Castle supported ODonnell when she ran against Carper and then Biden? Delaware democrats are hard core believers, just ask the UAW members who believed that none of the auto plants would close. Open your eyes brothers and sisters. Change is indeed coming.

[Anonymous]

To all you people who think Christine ODonnell has a chance in November you are delusional. She LOST to Joe Biden in 2008 65% to 35%. In case you teabaggers cant subtract she lost by 30 points. Even in an environment favoring republican shed be lucky to lose by less than 15 based on the democratic nature of Delaware alone. I really could care less cause Id prefer the seat stay in democratic hands however if you people want to throw away a respected 30 year public servant (former governor and current at-large congressman) and any chance republicans have of taking control of the senate just because Castle doesnt fit your perfect Mama Grizzly mold then you go right ahead and do that. However, it does say a lot about the integrity of the likely Delaware republican voter though (and by a lot I mean they have little of it).

[Anonymous]

The majority of Republicans in Delaware despise the current party and its leadership. I think its 3x worse as any utility because of its tone deafness and dictatorial behavior. The only solutions these leaders offer are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic. Mike Castle keeps moving the chairs around while chairman Ross is selling preferential passes for the First Class life boats

[Christian Liberty]

Lets dispense with the ridiculous talking point that Christine ODonnell isnt fit to hold office. If anything she is MORE fit to hold office than Castle. Rising up from past mistakes to LEARN from her experience WISDOM to LEAD and REPRESENT her state shows that ODonnell is a real American who can relate to the experiences of real people. She is more in touch with her state than Castle could ever be. Common sense and political history shows that this is a winning formula. (William) Proxmire jumped into the race against a popular governor. The loser charge was instantly on everyones lips.Proxmire would have none of it. Instead, in the fight of his life against the states political establishment, Proxmire turned the tables. He admitted that, yes: he had lost three races for governor. He was trying again. But there was no shame in losing, he said, because most average Wisconsites had lost at something, and they could identify with him. He wanted the votes of every Wisconsin voter who had lost in love or in a sport or lost a job or lost a parent or a child or anything or anyone they cared about. And his opponent could have all the voters who had won at everything they tried.In a stunning upset, Wisconsin voters went with Proxmire. He was a highly popular senator for 32 years.http://spectator.org/blog/2010/09/07/christine-odonnells-proxmire-aThere is every reason to believe that ODonnell will be a popular and successful and wise representative of Delaware for many years to come.

[Sam]

Just why is it every Tea Party Candidate that has won was declared “un-electable” by the RNC?

[Anonymous]

Ill guess well see whos delusional in November.