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September 23, 2010

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wt

Interesting way to approach the numbers, and its probably right to a degree. Though it depends on what you mean by a contested primary, since some of these were contested but not very well (Kirk, Rossi, Paul).Also, the people at the bottom (Angle and ODonnell) were tea party candidates elected in states Obama carried easily in 2008, so their numbers would be down even if they sailed to the nomination. I have a wacky suggestion for your next poll -- NY-SEN! We have narrow Gillibrand leads of 1 and 6; is it really that close?

Dustin Ingalls

And you havent even done recent polls for half these races.All of those numbers reflect polls done in either August or September, except Nevada, which was done in July.

ARealSenator

Great stuff Tom. I would add that in addition to the tough primaries affecting favorability through the airing of negative ads, direct attacks, etc., I think most of these candidates had to run far to the right to win their primary and, thus, lost favorability amongst independent and moderate Republican voters (not to mention Democrats). I would also expect Raeses numbers to fall as Manchin starts attacking him, but thats just a guess.

Chuck T

I hope you do a Colorado Senate poll soon as I would be very interested in how that race is shaping up--especially given Bucks unfav to fav ratio.

Anonymous

This is more ignorant than your usual spin.Take Angle, for instance: her ratings coming out of the primary were quite good, and only dropped afterward. After all, she won because she WASNT the target of many negative attacks.And you dont think Marco Rubio had a bruising primary? I seem to remember him having an opponent at one point. And you havent even done recent polls for half these races. And, and, and...To say nothing of the impact on overall name recognition, vetting, selection of quality candidates, campaigning experience, improved organizational strength, and added enthusiasm.I guess youre running out of plausible ways to manufacture a favorable narrative.

Al Pippin

While comparing some of your/PPPs approval numbers with those reported by Rasmussen, I quickly came to realize a rather sizable difference between the two. Here they are:RON JOHNSON: PPP; 46/34 (+12) Ras; 61/33 (+28) JOHN RAESE: PPP; 41/35 (+6) Ras; 53/41 (+8) MARCO RUBIO: PPP; 40/37 (+3) Ras; 53/42 (+11) PAT TOOMEY: PPP; 36/33 (+3) Ras; 57/33 (+24)ROB PORTMAN: PPP; 29/28 (+1) Ras; 52/27 (+25)CHRISTINA ODONNELL: PPP; 29/50 (-21) Ras; 33/35 (-2)KEN BUCK: PPP; 26/46 (-20) Ras; 49/44 (+5) SHARON ANGLE: PPP; 36/52 (-16) Ras; 45/51 (-6)JOE MILLER: PPP; 36/52 (-16) Ras; 45/51 (-6)RAND PAUL: PPP; 45/40 (+5) Ras; 56/39 (+17)ROY BLUNT: PPP; 41/42 (-1) Ras; 53/42 (+11)DINO ROSSI: PPP; 43/48 (-5) Ras; 50/48 (+2)CARLEY FLORINA: PPP; 34/42 (-8) Ras; 47/44 (+3)MARK KIRK: PPP; 26/34 (-8) Ras; 47/46 (+1)KELLY AYOTTE: PPP; 35/47 (-12) Ras; 56/39 (+17)In total, there exists an average gap differential between the two of 15%. Did I miss something - or what?

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