Polls

Coons Leads, First State Could Decide Senate Control

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – There is no doubt Delaware Republicans picked the weakest candidate to match up against Democrat Chris Coons for U.S. Senate.  Coons enters the short general election contest with a 50-34 lead over Christine O’Donnell.  Had longtime Congressman Mike Castle won last night, he would have a 45-35 lead over Coons.  Coons performs 26 points better against O’Donnell than against Castle.  Castle has been elected statewide 12 times, but O’Donnell has lost bids for each of Delaware’s Senate seats by margins of 30 and 41 points, in stronger Democratic years 2006 and 2008.

Castle would have pulled a remarkable 30% of Democrats, almost twice as many as Coons’ 16% of Republicans, and held a 45-27 lead with independents.  Against O’Donnell, Coons almost reverses those trends, getting 25% of Republicans to O’Donnell’s 13% of Democrats, and flipping independents by 24 points to a 42-36 lead.

O’Donnell is much better known but much less liked than Coons, with a 29-50 favorability rating to Coons’ 31-33.  Almost as many, 40%, think O’Donnell is too conservative, as the 45% who think Castle “about right.”  By a 49-31 margin, Delawareans think O’Donnell not fit to hold public office, but they see Castle as fit by a 59-26 margin—a difference of 51 points.

The 2010 electorate reports voting for Obama over John McCain in 2008 by only 14 points, much less than the president’s actual 25-point victory.  But without Obama’s running mate Joe Biden on the ballot, Democratic turnout was bound to drop, as Republican excitement has waned slightly in Alaska without Sarah Palin up for a vote.  Obama and Biden outperformed 2004 nominee John Kerry by 16 points, so the enthusiasm on Delaware’s left is still outpacing that in other states.

“A small group of Delaware Republicans most likely cost their party this seat and any chance at gaining control of the Senate last night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “What has looked like an easy Republican win the entire cycle now looks like an easy one for the Democrats.”

PPP surveyed 958 likely Delaware voters on September 11th and 12th.  The margin of error is +/-3.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Carper’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ted
Kaufman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jack Markell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Castle?
Favorable……………. 44%
Unfavorable ………… 40%
Not sure ……………… 15%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Coons?
Favorable……………. 31%
Unfavorable ………… 33%
Not sure ……………… 36%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christine O’Donnell?
Favorable……………. 29%
Unfavorable ………… 50%
Not sure ……………… 21%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Mike Castle and Democrat Chris
Coons, who would you vote for?
Mike Castle…………………………………………….. 45%
Chris Coons ……………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Christine O’Donnell and Democrat
Chris Coons, who would you vote for?
Christine O’Donnell ………………………………….. 34%
Chris Coons ……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q10 Do you think Mike Castle is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 31%
Too conservative……………………………………… 15%
About right ……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 Do you think Christine O’Donnell is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 9%
Too conservative……………………………………… 40%
About right ……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q12 Do you think Mike Castle is fit to hold public
office?
Yes………………………………………………………… 59%
No …………………………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

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