« Coons Leads, First State Could Decide Senate Control | Main | »

September 16, 2010

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Anonymous

Most of the population of Delaware is in one county. Surely Carney has visited it at some point?Maybe hes the demure, shy, retiring type of politician. Maybe he didnt campaign at all from 2008-2010.Lets get real, here. Save the bull for the blog posts and leave the comments to people who know what theyre talking about.

Dustin Ingalls

I was referring to his favorable rating alone, which is barely ahead of Urquharts. Not impressive for a twice-elected statewide office holder.Generally, unless youre the governor or a senator, hardly anyone knows who you are, and even then, a surprising number have no opinion. That includes the Lt. Governor. In a small state like Delaware, you would think more people would know who their elected leaders are, but considering that the media markets for the state are mainly out-of-state, its also hard to get face time on the evening news.

Anonymous

+10 is a pretty good place to be in this climate. Few have better favorabilities than that.I was referring to his favorable rating alone, which is barely ahead of Urquharts. Not impressive for a twice-elected statewide office holder.Net, Urquhart is +1 even after a contested primary.Im very surprised to find that this is a real race.

Dustin Ingalls

Thats not a particularly strong result for Carney.Castle never won this seat by less than 12 (and that was in his first race when it was an open seat), usually by 30+. Now a Democrat leads by 11, similar to Castles first race.Weak favorability+10 is a pretty good place to be in this climate. Few have better favorabilities than that.Democrats are happy to steal Tea Party ideas, just refuse to give credit where credit is due.Being fiscally responsible is not a new or Tea Party-innovated idea. Contrary to your fantasy, Democrats are no less fiscally responsible than Republicans.

Christian Liberty

Your post comparing Castle and Murkowski was very instructive. Pretty soon we should be seeing a post comparing Coons and Joe Manchin, popular Democrat executives that just cant put their races away. The reality of Obamas extreme agenda is more terrifying than any fantasy Democrats can invent about principled conservative champions of the people like Christine ODonnell or John Raese.

Christian Liberty

Though Democrats have a 17pt registration edge in Delaware, ODonnell only trails by 16 (PPP) or 11 (RR). ODonnell is already outperforming the dreaded favorability gap. Though only 34% disapprove of Coons, 42% want to vote for ODonnell. Though 58% approve of Coons, only 53% want to vote for him. Christine ODonnell led Coons 41-39 in July and is capable of leading again once the damage from the primary subsides. ODonnell was seen favorably 43/33 before the accusations of the primary heated up. When only 25% of national voters believe current government policies have the country on the right track, why would they vote for another rubber stamp for the disastrous Obama-Durbin agenda?

Christian Liberty

speaking of races Democrats can win, Hickenloopers new ad Cheap brags about his ability to save millions as mayor. Tea Party frugality is all the rage in both parties. Democrats are happy to steal Tea Party ideas, just refuse to give credit where credit is due.

Anonymous

Thats not a particularly strong result for Carney. Weak favorability, running against a decent opponent with a supercharged conservative base?Urquhart is already running ahead of ODonnell and has the ability to get a fairly unified Republican vote at his back.

DBL

In Massachusetts Democrats outnumber Republicans 37%-12% with 51% independent/other. For the most part independents are less likely to vote. In 2006 and 2008 Democrats outnumbered Republicans 42%-19% and 43%-17%. While exit polls arent available for the Brown election it couldve been 35%-22%. A candidate could win taking independents 60%-40%. In Delaware Democrats outnumber Republicans 47%-29%, with only 24% independent. In 2008 the breakdown was 48%-31%-21%. PPP has a 47%-38%-23% party breakdown. If Coons locks up Democrats, ODonnell would have to get 90% of Republicans and 70% of independents. RINOs have been told to hit the road, so now only is it doubtful shell get 90% of Republicans, but many RINOs will stay home. So getting the Republican turn-out will be difficult. Getting 70% of independents is way beyond anything she can hope for.

Dustin Ingalls

Ill also add, Al, that Brown had a +19 favorability, pulled almost 20% of Democrats against Coakley, and won independents 2:1. Those trends are not in ODonnells favor. She has a -21 favorability, gets only 13% of Dems to Coons 25% of Republicans, and is down with independents by 6.

Dustin Ingalls

I have long said that any Democratic candidate with less than a 10 point polling lead over his/her Republican opponent on November 1, will be highly vulnerable in that states elections.Shes down by 16, and its only mid-September.Keep in mind that Republican voters are, in many polls, twice +/- as likely to state that they are very enthusiastic about voting in this years mid term elections than what their Democratic counterparts are reporting (Gallup has it at 50/25).Thats already reflected in our polls.

Al Pippin

Though I would agree that Christine ODonnell faces an uphill battle in winning Delawares Senatorial seat in November, I most certainly wouldnt count her out in doing so. I have long said that any Democratic candidate with less than a 10 point polling lead over his/her Republican opponent on November 1, will be highly vulnerable in that states elections. Keep in mind that Republican voters are, in many polls, twice +/- as likely to state that they are very enthusiastic about voting in this years mid term elections than what their Democratic counterparts are reporting (Gallup has it at 50/25). Afterall,what kind of chances were given to Scott Brown beating Martha Coakley in, of all states, Massachusetts - 50 days out from that states November elections - in a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters by a 3 to 1 margin? Not much!Like I said, do not count Christine ODonnell out in this one. It would, in my opinion, be quite foolish in doing so.

Dustin Ingalls

has 16+ weeks to make up that very doable difference.She has 6 weeks, not 16, and shes down 16, with the internals not favorable to her turning it around.

Al Pippin

Dustin,Like I previously stated, Christine ODonnell has an uphill battle in winning the Senatorial seat in Delaware, but dont count her out in doing so - that that would be foolish in doing so. Whether she does or doesnt, was never intended to suggest that she will, in fact, accomplish that task. My position in that matter hasnt changed one iota. Lets face it, his years elections have so far produced an awful lot of surprises and I suspect will continue to do so up to and including the general elections on November 2nd. Dont forget that ODonnell was virtually tied with Coons in July. By the way, your mention of Coons having a i6% point lead (Rasmussen has it at 11%) and this being mid September -only means that ODonnell has 16+ weeks to make up that very doable difference. Come November, we can talk again. If ODonnells numbers havent significantly improved (or better yet) between now and then, I will readily admit to you and PPPs readers that I was wrong - if, in fact, you are or will be willing to do the same.By the way, I apologize for not including PPPs enthusiasm numbers, that I so readily attributed to Gallup. I generally try to give credit where credit is due. It was purely an oversight on my behalf. By the way, have a good day!

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2017

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them
–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

For more information on hiring PPP for your polling needs click here

Among the Best Pollsters, Year after Year.

2014 :
Rated Most Accurate Pollster in Governor’s Races Nationally

2012 :
Correctly predicted the winner of every state in the Presidential race, and the winner of every major Senate race

2010 :
First pollster to predict Scott Brown’s upset win over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race, only pollster to predict Christine O’Donnell’s upset victory over Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican Senate primary.

2008 :
Ranked by the Wall Street Journal as the 2nd most accurate swing state pollster in the Presidential election.


WSJ Graphic

CONTACT US

Public Policy Polling
2912 Highwoods Blvd., Suite 201
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888.621.6988

Questions or Comments?
Email Us

RECENT POSTS

Categories

HIRE PPP

Dean Debnam Dean Debnam
Public Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations.  Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"

Learn more about working
with PPP for your next project >

FOLLOW US

Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
RSS Feed RSS Reader