« Moving Forward | Main | Romney up big in NH »

September 17, 2010

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a0133f2dd8001970b01538e329d49970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference California Preview:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Robert Paulson

Okay, but Real Clear Politics has Whitman up by 5 on Brown, and Fiorina down by less than 2 to Boxer. Cant win seems like a strong word choice.

Anonymous

I hope Brown is up...

Anonymous

The Democratic trend in your upcoming CA polls seems consistent with recent WA Sen polling--Democrats and their leaners seem to be coming home in deep blue states. Unfortunately for the Democrats, this trend doesnt seem to be materializing in purple states, such as FL, MI, OH, PA and WI, where recent polls show races slipping away.

Anonymous

Ive heard your likely voter model screens out people who didnt vote in 2006 and 2008, both strong Democratic years - is that true? Thanks.

wt

When a poll is of likely voters, does it include assumptions about unlikely voters as well? Suppose 15% of unlikely voters decide, on election day, what the hay, Ill vote after all. Is that built into the polling model?

Anonymous

Uh... if Whitman and Brown are pulling in over 10% of Dem voters, thats *not* good news for Dems! Dems make up 45% of registered voters in CA - if the Republican candidates are pulling in over 10% of that, thats setting the Dem candidates floor at 40%. I dont see how thats good news. To overcome that, Dems will have to do particularly well among Indies, likely needing to pull in over half. And thats not even assuming Dem turnout will be down in CA this year, which it almost certainly will! I dont see how any of this is good news!

wt

No, but you have to assume in a state like CA, and really anywhere, that the more people who dont plan to show up now actually do vote, the more it helps Dems, considering the enthusiasm gap.Oh, I totally agree. It helps the Democratss. And it might be the reason you see Dems doing slightly better than the enthusiasm gap has indicated in the last several elections. Some percentage of unlikely voters decides to turn out afterall.

Dustin Ingalls

When a poll is of likely voters, does it include assumptions about unlikely voters as well?Suppose 15% of unlikely voters decide, on election day, what the hay, Ill vote after all. Is that built into the polling model?No, but you have to assume in a state like CA, and really anywhere, that the more people who dont plan to show up now actually do vote, the more it helps Dems, considering the enthusiasm gap.Ive heard your likely voter model screens out people who didnt vote in 2006 and 2008, both strong Democratic years - is that true? Thanks.Nope, not true at all. We poll registered voters who have voted in at least one of the last three general elections and then screen out anyone who volunteers that they dont plan to vote this fall.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2013

Our Final 2012 Polls

CONTACT US

Public Policy Polling
2912 Highwoods Blvd., Suite 201
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888.621.6988

Questions or Comments?
Email Us

TESTIMONIALS

NPR Public Policy Polling was profiled by NPR as “one of the most prolific polling outfits in the country.” Read more...

The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country during the last Presidential election.

WSJ Graphic

RECENT POSTS

Categories

HIRE PPP

Dean Debnam Dean Debnam
Public Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations.  Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"

Learn more about working
with PPP for your next project >

FOLLOW US

Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
RSS Feed RSS Reader
Email Sign up: New Polling Data email