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September 17, 2010

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Robert Paulson

Okay, but Real Clear Politics has Whitman up by 5 on Brown, and Fiorina down by less than 2 to Boxer. Cant win seems like a strong word choice.

Anonymous

I hope Brown is up...

Anonymous

The Democratic trend in your upcoming CA polls seems consistent with recent WA Sen polling--Democrats and their leaners seem to be coming home in deep blue states. Unfortunately for the Democrats, this trend doesnt seem to be materializing in purple states, such as FL, MI, OH, PA and WI, where recent polls show races slipping away.

Anonymous

Ive heard your likely voter model screens out people who didnt vote in 2006 and 2008, both strong Democratic years - is that true? Thanks.

wt

When a poll is of likely voters, does it include assumptions about unlikely voters as well? Suppose 15% of unlikely voters decide, on election day, what the hay, Ill vote after all. Is that built into the polling model?

Anonymous

Uh... if Whitman and Brown are pulling in over 10% of Dem voters, thats *not* good news for Dems! Dems make up 45% of registered voters in CA - if the Republican candidates are pulling in over 10% of that, thats setting the Dem candidates floor at 40%. I dont see how thats good news. To overcome that, Dems will have to do particularly well among Indies, likely needing to pull in over half. And thats not even assuming Dem turnout will be down in CA this year, which it almost certainly will! I dont see how any of this is good news!

wt

No, but you have to assume in a state like CA, and really anywhere, that the more people who dont plan to show up now actually do vote, the more it helps Dems, considering the enthusiasm gap.Oh, I totally agree. It helps the Democratss. And it might be the reason you see Dems doing slightly better than the enthusiasm gap has indicated in the last several elections. Some percentage of unlikely voters decides to turn out afterall.

Dustin Ingalls

When a poll is of likely voters, does it include assumptions about unlikely voters as well?Suppose 15% of unlikely voters decide, on election day, what the hay, Ill vote after all. Is that built into the polling model?No, but you have to assume in a state like CA, and really anywhere, that the more people who dont plan to show up now actually do vote, the more it helps Dems, considering the enthusiasm gap.Ive heard your likely voter model screens out people who didnt vote in 2006 and 2008, both strong Democratic years - is that true? Thanks.Nope, not true at all. We poll registered voters who have voted in at least one of the last three general elections and then screen out anyone who volunteers that they dont plan to vote this fall.

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