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September 21, 2010


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Christian Liberty: Democratic Registration has climbed to 44%. Your facts are as accurate as your predictions: lame, based on your ideology. Whitman and Fiorina will both go down, (just ask Al Checci and Michael Huffington if you can buy statewide office in California.) And the Democrats will most likely pick up seats in both chambers in Sacramento. Ask anyone who lives in California and can read a map.


Im not criticizing PPP. Im just skeptical of a poll that shows large Democratic leads with a sample thats skewed toward the Democrats. If Rasmussen shows a similar poll (although Rasmussens 4-point lead for Boxer is more consistent with what PPPs results would be if they weighted party turnout to 2008 levels), then that decreases the probability that it is a statistical outlier.


Its funny that when holy Rasmussen shows the same thing, the knee-jerk criticism of PPP from rightards stops.


Is it possible that we are not having an election about Obama agreeing with CBS, and we are finally having an election based on candidates and not party? Maybe people in MI just like Snyder. Maybe people in WI just like Johnson. Maybe people are not as concerned about partisanship as the media breathlessly reports. Maybe Conway wins KY and Raese wins WV. Maybe because people are worried about the candidates, and not about ideology. Is it just possible?

Chuck T

You know I just checked and Rasmussen just released their poll on CA Senate and they too show that Boxer is gaining--moving from a one-point lead in their previous survey to 4-points today. Now I know many of you are pooh-poohing these CA results but it looks like another pollster, RAS, is also showing Boxer gaining ground. No word yet from RAS on governors race, but it will probably show it tight race there--perhaps tied.


Fox News poll confirms that Brown has the momentum. He was down 6 to Whitman in the last poll. Now hes tied with her in the most recent Fox poll.

Christian Liberty

Brown tops out at 47.Boxer tops out at 50.The California polls are the most pro-D since the July market lows. But Democrats support will soon put in a lower high and reverse to the downside. Currently, in the terminal phases of a 2-month long bear market rally (of minor degree), the incumbent party and its candidates is at or near their peak of support. As the market begins its next wave down soon (and takes social mood with it) support for incumbents will erode and support for challengers will increase. Whitman and Fiorina are in excellent shape and will soon have the wind at their back once again. Late deciders will swing heavily for Republican challengers. The current extremes in optimism that are propping up flawed Democratic candidates and their failed policies likely cannot be sustained for six more weeks. Americans shall demand new ideas and new representatives that respect liberty and temper government intrusion.


Jerry Brown is running for governor? Of California? I wouldve heard about this if it were true.People complained because the sample has way more Democrats than California ever has. The West Virginia poll has about a normal percentage of Democrats, elevated Republicans, and lower independents. In a Republican year this doesnt seem out of line.In 2006 it was 41%D/35%R/24%I. It was one of the few states that was more Republican in 2006 than in 2004. 1998 and 2002 exit polls arent available. In 2002 the company who does it didnt release the numbers. In 1994 the breakdown was 40%D/39%R/21%I. Theres no way its that Republican in 2010 because the state has changed since then. The Democrats hit a high of 42% in 2008. I doubt itll even be that high this year.

Dustin Ingalls

Its true Arnold isnt the reviled, partisan, polarizing figure most politicians are, because hes strongly disliked across the board, but most heavily still by Democrats. Where he could hurt some is not because people tie him to Fiorina or Whitman, but simply because Democrats want change, and they will turn out to vote for it. Obviously were seeing higher projected Dem turnout than expected, and its coming from somewhere.


@Dustin, fine, look at 2006, a great year for Dems. Then it would have to be nine points better for Dems this year. Dems were 40% in 2006

Dustin Ingalls

There is no way Dem turnout is going to be 6 points higher than 2008.Youre better off comparing to 2006, 2002, or 1994. This is a midterm, when the share of independents goes down and partisans goes up.


Schwarzenegger isnt going to really hurt Republicans. Hes managed to achieve his goal of being a post partisan governor, only in the sense that hes hated by everyone. Very few people are going to vote against Whitman, Fiorina, and Republicans because they dont like Arnold. Hes truely a RINO, and people in California know it. If you lived here you would know.


Well you either are going to look like the greatest seer in the world or look very bad in November because you are seeing thing no other pollster is seeing and its on both the right and the left.


Again, your likely voter model is garbage. There simply isnt going to be a 49/33/18 partisan split in CA this year. There is no way Dem turnout is going to be 6 points higher than 2008. And another thing, California isnt Massachusetts, FYI. If Whitman and Fiorina can win 10-15% of Dems and keep their advantage with independants, they are going to win, period.


Your own polling over the year on this race has shown Whitman picking up new support at twice the rate that Brown has. IOW, she has been slowly whittling away at Browns lead over the course of this year. Care to comment? Can Whitman catch up fast enough?

Chuck T

Get ready for the same posters to knock this poll because Brown is ahead but will embrace your WVA poll and WI poll both out today which show Dems trailing in both.

Chuck T

Well Rasmussen just released his governor numbers and guess what? Brown surged five points in their poll and now holds a 1-point lead over Whitman and with leaners hes up by 2-points. So stop your crying about this poll--we now have two polls (actually 3 if you include CNN)showing both Boxer and Brown surging in CA.

Chuck T

Guess what? yet another poll has come out which confirms the trend PPP found in CA--SUSA which has been very bearish on Dems this year now has Boxer up by Six! and Brown up as well. I wonder what the nay sayers on this poll are saying now?

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